Kentucky Derby 2026: Early odds and analysis

The final field for Kentucky Derby 2026 will be drawn between races 3 and 4 on Saturday afternoon at Churchill Downs. Newly appointed oddsmaker Nick Tammaro stated in an April 16 news release that Renegade would be a lukewarm favorite followed by Commandment and Further Ado.

Since the points era began in 2013, excluding the 2020 COVID year when the Derby was run in September, all 12 of the winners on the first Saturday in May made their final prep race in one of the 100-point qualifiers. The first seven of those horses to finish first in the Derby also won their prep race. Six of them ran in the Florida Derby (G1), three went in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), two came out of the Arkansas Derby (G1) and one ran in the Jeff Ruby (G3).

The running style of the top-finishing Kentucky Derby horses in the points era is skewed toward those racing from off the pace. Only three were front-runners and coincidentally Medina Spirit and Maximum Security were disqualified after finishing first.

Here is an early odds and analysis for the May 2 Kentucky Derby with a projected morning line by Brian Zipse of Horse Racing Nation. Post time for the Derby is set for 6:57 p.m. EDT. The probable field for the run for the roses is listed below in morning line order.

Renegade, 7-2. Into Mischief – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. - 5: 2-2-1, $1,031,500. Renegade won both of his starts in 2026, and they were in a pair of Kentucky Derby prep races. He won the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs and the 100-point Arkansas Derby. Irad Ortiz is looking for his first win in the run for the roses, and trainer Todd Pletcher has won the race with Super Saver and Always Dreaming. Win contender.

Further Ado, 9-2. Gun Runner – Brad Cox / John Velazquez - 6: 3-1-1, $1,146,328. Further Ado won the 100-point Blue Grass Stakes (G1) when he overwhelmed that field of seven to win by 11 lengths. He was second in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) in his first start of the year. The son of Gun Runner broke his maiden at Keeneland as a 2-year-old by 20 lengths. Street Sense in 2007 was the last Kentucky Derby winner to prep in the Blue Grass.  Top pick.

Commandment, 5-1. Into Mischief – Brad Cox / Luis Saez – 5: 4-0-0, $1,017,339. Commandment won his last four starts after a fourth in his debut in October at Keeneland. His two most recent starts were in the Fountain of Youth (G2) by a neck and then the Florida Derby by a nose, which gave him the top spot on the points leaderboard with 150. Trainer Brad Cox won the 2021 Derby with Mandaloun after Medina Spirit was disqualified. Win contender.

So Happy, 10-1. Runhappy – Mark Glatt / Mike Smith – 4: 3-0-1, $480,000. So Happy found his way into the run for the roses after his victory in the 100-point Santa Anita Derby with a stalking trip. He was second in the San Felipe (G2) behind a Bob Baffert runner. Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith will stay on board and has prior victories on the first Saturday in May with Giacomo and Triple Crown winner Justify. Toss.

Chief Wallabee, 10-1. Constitution – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado - 3: 1-1-1, $216,600. Chief Wallabee is lightly raced with only three starts at Gulfstream Park, which have come since Jan. 10. He was a debut maiden winner over The Puma going seven furlongs and then moved onto the Derby trail to run second in the Fountain of Youth and third in the Florida Derby. Bill Mott won the Derby twice with Sovereignty last year and in 2019 with Country House when Maximum Security was disqualified. Win contender.

The Puma, 10-1. Essential Quality – Gustavo Delgado / Javier Castellano - 4: 1-2-1, $442,280. The Puma debuted in a January maiden race against Chief Wallabee and then moved onto the Derby trail to run third in the Sam F. Davis and win the Tampa Bay Derby. Then he missed in the Florida Derby after having the lead in the stretch. Trainer Gustavo Delgado got the roses in the Churchill winner’s circle when Mage closed from far back in 2023. Win contender.

Emerging Market, 18-1. Candy – Chad Brown / Flavien Prat - 2: 2-0-0, $618,880. Emerging Market is undefeated after two races, including a maiden at Tampa going two turns in February. He then beat a field of nine in the 100-point Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds. Nine undefeated horses won the Kentucky Derby since 1915, with Justify doing it in 2018. Chad Brown is looking for his first winner in America’s most famous horse race. Win contender.

Danon Bourbon, 18-1. Maxfield - Manabu Ikezoe / Ryusei Sakai - 3: 3-0-0, $222,762. Danon Bourbon is also undefeated after three starts in Japan, moving from a maiden to an allowance to the Fukuryu on the Japan road to the Derby. The combined win margin for those three races was more than 18 lengths. Toss.

Fulleffort, 20-1. Liam's Map – Brad Cox / Tyler Gaffalione - 7: 3-2-1, $694,115. Fulleffort is Brad Cox’s third runner in this year’s Derby. He made his first five starts on the turf as a 2-year-old. This year he moved to the Tapeta surface at Turfway and was second in the Battaglia on the Derby trail before rallying to a clear victory in the 100-point Jeff Ruby. Live long shot.

Potente, 20-1. Into Mischief – Bob Baffert / Juan Hernandez - 3: 2-1-0, $262,000. Potente will be the only horse in this year’s Derby field for trainer Bob Baffert, who has six wins in the run for the roses. The $2.4 million yearling won his debut in January and followed it with a Derby trail score in the San Felipe. Last seen he was second in the Santa Anita Derby. Baffert won his first Derby in 1997 with Silver Charm and then with Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify. His most recent was in 2020 with Authentic, although Medina Spirit was disqualified from first in 2021. Toss.

Silent Tactic, 25-1. Tacitus – Mark Casse / Cristian Torres - 6: 2-4-0, $1,051,922. Silent Tactic ran in all four of the Oaklawn races on the Derby trail, with a win in the Southwest (G2) and three second-place finishes. Most recently he rallied to get the lead in the 100-point Arkansas Derby but was caught by Renegade. Trainer Mark Casse has had 10 runners on the first Saturday in May without a top-three finish. Use underneath.

Incredibolt, 30-1. Bolt d’Oro – Riley Mott / Jaime Torres - 5: 3-0-0, $498,681. Incredibolt won twice on the Derby trail in the Street Sense (G3) and the Virginia Derby, giving trainer Riley Mott his first of two runners in the big race. The younger Mott gained plenty of experience on the first Saturday in May as his father’s assistant trainer. Toss.

Golden Tempo, 30-1. Curlin – Cherie DeVaux / Jose Ortiz - 4: 2-0-2, $333,000. Golden Tempo made four starts at Fair Grounds, including three on the Derby trail. After a debut victory in December, he won the Lecomte (G3) and was third in the Risen Star (G2) and the Louisiana Derby. Live long shot.

Wonder Dean, 30-1. Dee Majesty – Daisuke Takayanagi / TBA - 6: 2-2-0, $770,541. Wonder Dean is a Japan-bred who got into the Kentucky Derby with a win in the UAE Derby (G2), which was part of the Middle East road to the Derby. Toss.

Six Speed, 30-1. Not This Time – Bhupat Seemar / Mickael Barzalona - 5: 3-1-1, $402,183. Six Speed is a Kentucky-bred who raced only in Dubai five times. He won twice in January and then was second in the UAE Derby. Toss.

Albus, 40-1. Yaupon – Riley Mott / Manny Franco - 4: 2-0-1, $436,288. Albus moved from a two-turn maiden win at Tampa in February to the Derby trail, where he won the 100-point Wood Memorial (G2) with a late rally to become Riley Mott’s second horse for the first Saturday in May. You must go back in history to 2003 to find Funny Cide’s Derby win after he used the Wood as his final prep race. Toss.

Pavlovian, 40-1. Pavel – Doug O’Neill / Edwin Maldonado - 10: 2-4-1, $613,450. Pavlovian is the most experienced horse in the field, and seven of his starts were in California-bred races. His last two were on the Derby trail, where he won the Sunland Derby by a nose and then set the pace in the Louisiana Derby and missed by a nose. Trainer Doug O’Neill won the roses twice with I’ll Have Another and Nyquist and has had only eight starters. Toss.

Right to Party, 40-1. Constitution – Kenny McPeek / Christopher Elliot - 4: 1-1-2, $230,200. Right to Party ran four times at Aqueduct as part of trainer McPeek’s New York division. He broke his maiden in January and then was third in the Gotham (G3) on the Derby trail. In the Wood Memorial he used a steady and determined deep closing move to finish third. McPeek won the Derby in 2024 with Mystik Dan. Toss.

Stark Contrast, 50-1. Caravaggio – Michael McCarthy / Kazushi Kimura - 6: 3-2-0, $492,700. Stark Contrast had three wins on the turf, including two stakes in California before trainer Michael McCarthy sent him to the Jeff Ruby, where he finished second. He missed winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf by less than a length. McCarthy also is considering the American Turf (G1) on the Derby undercard for Stark Contrast. Toss.

Chip Honcho, 50-1. Connect – Steve Asmussen / TBA – 6: 2-2-0, $280,475. Chip Honcho ran in all four races on the Fair Grounds road to the Derby and won the Gun Runner. He picked up more points in the other three but faded badly to fifth in the Louisiana Derby. Chip Honcho is Steve Asmussen’s only chance to have his 29th runner for another try at winning the roses for the first time. Toss.

Summary: The post-position draw for the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks will be Saturday at 2:15 p.m. EDT, between races 3 and 4 on the Churchill Downs card. This early odds and analysis article should get you on your way to making choices in the 20-horse field where you just cannot use them all.

The 2026 Derby is a wide-open race where the favorite is going to be in the range of 7-2 to 5-1 with Renegade, Commandment and Further Ado vying for the honor. Six horses are identified as win contenders, ranging from 7-2 to 18-1 in the morning line. Two others get the live long-shot label carrying odds of 20-1 and 30-1. In this early Derby analysis, Further Ado is the top pick.