Kentucky Derby 2025: Who are the fastest contenders?

Kentucky Derby 2025 is set for next Saturday at Churchill Downs. The field of 20 3-year-old colts and geldings will go 1 1/4 miles on dirt for the first time in search of the roses, the solid-gold trophy and the winner's share of the $5 million purse.

For some bettors, the Kentucky Derby is the best race of the year because of its huge field and big odds. Live long shots can show up from anywhere. With so many variables and the unknowns of field size, distance and even an overseas ship for two Japan-based runners, it is tough to pick a winner. The rewards, however, can be life-changing.

One of the best places to start to pick a Kentucky Derby winner is to use speed figures. The higher the figure, the faster the horse, and in the U.S. there are four speed figures to choose from. Each different maker uses a proprietary formula that incorporates split times, distance, track conditions and even the weather. With young horses, the lifetime top number is a good way to judge speed and quality of the contender.

Projected morning-line favorite Journalism has the top HRN speed figure with a 130. He also holds the fastest figure under the Beyer, TimeformUS and Brisnet ratings, too. Two points behind him with a 128 HRN speed figure is Rodriguez, the Grade 2 Wood Memorial winner. Rodriguez is high on the other scales, too, with a 105 on Brisnet, a 120 TFUS fig and a 101 Beyer.

The lightly raced Santa Anita Derby (G1) runner-up Baeza has some of the highest speed figures, but others have to withdraw for him to make it into the race. These three California-based horses will draw a lot of attention from the bettors if they all are in the starting gate.

Other noteworthy contenders include Sandman, the Mark Casse trainee who won the Arkansas Derby (G1) and gained a following from heavy metal band Metallica. He has a 121 HRN speed figure, a 101 Brisnet rating, a 120 on the TimeformUS scale and a 99 from Beyer. Publisher, who ran second to Sandman in the Arkansas Derby, has yet to win his first race. But the American Pharoah-sired colt has put up some race-winning speed figures with a 118 HRN figure, 97 Brisnet rating, 116 TimeformUS  and a 95 Beyer.

The Japan-based horses, Luxor Cafe and Admire Daytona, have not run in the U.S. on tracks that have been through the speed figure makers' formulas. Translating international ratings is hit-or-miss for the dirt, so the best way to judge these contenders is to pay attention to how they're training at Churchill Downs and watch race replays if you can find them.

Here are the lifetime top speed figures for the top 25 Derby points earners.

*Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures are provided courtesy of Daily Racing Form.