Kentucky Derby 2025: Which runners are bred for the mud?

With rain on Friday and more predicted on Saturday, the dirt main track could be sloppy or muddy for the Kentucky Derby. So one key question is, which horses are bred to run the best in the mud? 

To analyze this, we can look at Horse Racing Nation's Sire Analytics, which provide key statistics for each Derby starter based on their sire. Our statistics can focus in only on dirt route races, one mile or greater, where the track was not fast, but rather sloppy, muddy or good. In addition to the win percentage, the HRN impact statistic shows us whether the horses are overperforming or underperforming their odds.

Sires with 20% or greater win percentages

Several Kentucky Derby starters have sires whose progeny won 20% or more in dirt routes that are labeled as anything but fast: in other words, tracks rated sloppy, muddy or good. Those are Final Gambit, American Promise, Burnham Square, Tiztastic, Sandman, Chunk of Gold and Owen Almighty. 

Sires with 15% to 19% win percentages

Nine of the Derby starters have sires whose progeny won between 15% and 19% in wet dirt routes. Those are Citizen Bull, Neoequos, Luxor Cafe, Journalism, Publisher, Flying Mohawk, East Avenue, Render Judgment and Sovereignty. 

Sires with 0% to 10% win percentages

Three Derby starters have sires with less than 10% winners. Those include Coal Battle, whose sire Coal Front has gotten only 8% winners in wet dirt routes. But that is based on only 24 starts for the newer sire. There is even less data on Baeza's sire McKinzie, whose first runners are now 3-year-olds. McKinzie has had only nine starters in wet dirt routes, none of whom won. So Baeza's sire is winless in dirt routes. As for Admire Daytona, his sire Drefong, who is based in Japan, hasn't had any North American starters in wet dirt routes.