Kentucky Derby 2025: Trying to figure out Japan’s 2 horses

Louisville, Ky.

Cashing a trifecta ticket from last year’s Kentucky Derby meant successfully translating the message brought by horses from Japan. With the prevailing notion that the winner’s trophy inevitably will go across the Pacific, something resembling fluency may be required.

Two noses and a rival jockey’s hand check were all that separated Forever Young from finishing the task in 2024. Behind that close third, T O Password came in fifth. The two of them gave Japan its best results since its first Derby visit in 1995.

Kentucky Derby 2025: Wednesday notes for full field.

Now it is Luxor Café who is the popular choice to become the first international winner of America’s biggest race since Bold Forbes came from Puerto Rico in 1976.

“Forever Young is obviously a super, special horse,” said Kate Hunter, Japan’s liaison to the Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup. “He went through some paces last year from Saudi-Dubai to here that were just spectacular that it took so much of a horse to be able to accomplish. Luxor is coming in more on the same path that T O Password did, but I think he’s shown a lot more ability having won two points races.”

Luxor Café, a colt by 2015 Triple Crown champion American Pharoah, was best-priced Wednesday night at 8-1 in Las Vegas fixed-odds betting for the Derby. Early pari-mutuel betting had him at 14-1.

Admire Daytona, who won the Grade 2 UAE Derby on April 5, also represents Japan on Saturday. He was 39-1 in the pari-mutuels on Wednesday and 80-1 in Nevada.

“Hopefully, fingers and toes crossed, we’ve got two really strong candidates this year,” Hunter said. “It’s nice to be able to go to the Kentucky Derby being able to say this one has this reason they could win, and this one has this reason they could win, so it’s pretty exciting.”

Part of the Japan puzzle is translating breezes, which are not the blazing efforts they tend to be for American horses. Trained by Noriyuki Hori, Luxor Café worked five furlongs at Churchill Downs on Tuesday in 1:02.4 with fractions of 13.4, 26.0 and 37.8 seconds.

“I was asked to canter a lap as a warmup, then I galloped him from the five-furlong pole,” said João Moreira, a dominant jockey in Hong Kong who will race at Churchill Downs for the first time since 2013. “It was just an easy work just to keep him ticking over. The horse felt good, relaxed and had good rhythm throughout. I was happy with his action and force. He pulled up well.”

Admire Daytona also turned in a final 1:02.4 work covering five furlongs in company Tuesday with maiden winner Greatdayforhockey, a 3-year-old colt from Dale Romans’s barn. The Drefong colt who was a world-pool 10-1 winner in the UAE Derby had an even more casual drill April 22 when he worked a half-mile in 53.2 seconds.

“Up until now he’s been just training on his own, just maintaining condition from Dubai,” trainer Yukihiro Kato said. “(Tuesday) we wanted to train him in company to tighten the screws down, and it was perfect. He is a horse that thrives off a challenge. We really appreciate Dale Romans helping us out.”

Both colts went through paddock schooling Wednesday with horses who were in the fifth race at Churchill Downs. Since red flags were not raised after that, and with morning track work that still requires translation, players will learn more in the video of their past performances.

In his stakes debut, Luxor Café made a first-run move on the early leaders to take the lead before holding off deep closer Promised Gene by a half-length Feb. 23 in the one-mile Hyacinth at Tokyo Racecourse.

Luxor Café has looked better going longer. After racing in mid-pack through the first six furlongs of the nearly 1 1/8-mile Fukuryu on March 29, he showed an overpowering turn of foot coming out of the one right turn. He finished with an in-hand, five-furlong triumph. It was the second time he enjoyed that margin of victory in a nine-furlong race. His final time was 1:52.1 on Nakayama’s dirt track, which has a sand mixture.

More impressive were his closing fractions. After converting from metric, Luxor Café traveled the final three furlongs in 36.5 seconds and the last furlong in 12.9. Even though they were markedly different courses, those sectionals still were close to Forever Young’s 36.6 and 12.7 to finish last year’s UAE Derby.

“It was faster (for Luxor Café) because it rained,” Hunter said. “The sand tracks do get a little bit firmer once you get a little bit of rain into it, which is typically why I want those horses to come to America, because it shows they can probably handle it a little bit better. His performances in the last couple of races in Japan and on the wet sand in Japan I really think speak a lot to his potential here.”

Admire Daytona had trouble two races ago in the Hyacinth, getting squeezed at the start before rallying to finish fourth behind Luxor Café. In the UAE Derby he broke alertly, set the pace around both turns and held off Heart of Honor by a nose at the finish. His closing three- and one-furlong fractions were a less than eye-popping 38.7 and 13.8 seconds.

“The heart he showed in that race I think was very reminiscent of the maiden race that he lost to Luxor Café when they went neck and neck and just went five, 10 lengths out from everybody else challenging each other all the way to the wire.” Hunter said. “(Admire Daytona) lost by a nose. I think there’s a lot more in common between them than there is different between them.”

That Nov. 23 race covering one mile at Tokyo will hold sway over bettors hoping Admire Daytona pays off at long odds. Conversely, despite Forever Young’s close loss to Mystik Dan last May, UAE Derby horses are 0-for-20 in the Kentucky Derby.

Regardless of the past-performance lines and stats, there still is a fair amount of educated guesswork needed when it comes to measuring Japan shippers against their U.S. rivals.

“The days in front of the race, you always feel optimistic,” Hunter said, “because right now there’s no clouds up ahead. Just like with everybody, every race is a new chance. When you’ve got horses that are healthy and sound or fit, it’s hard not to feel optimistic.”