Kentucky Derby 2025: Ranking the 5 best final prep races
One of the keys to solving the complex puzzle of a 20-horse field in Kentucky Derby 2025 is deciphering which runners come out of the most productive races. The first step to narrowing the true contenders is to take a stand on particular prep races that were inadequate.
Every horse exiting the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes, Louisiana Derby (G2), Virginia Derby, Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) and Tampa Bay Derby (G3) will not be competitive in the Kentucky Derby.
I analyze the five final key prep races worth a closer look prior to next Saturday's run for the roses.
Santa Anita Derby (G1)
Quality over quantity was the theme of this year's Santa Anita Derby. Journalism earned a strong 102 Beyer Speed Figure winning this race, according to Daily Racing Form, and is the leader of this crop and the deserving favorite of the Kentucky Derby.
Runner-up Baeza is an improving colt who could have a big say in the Kentucky Derby if he draws in off the also-eligible list.
Citizen Bull did not run his best race in Santa Anita Park's marquee race, but the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) winner had plenty of credentials entering this affair.
Barnes missed his chance to get into the Kentucky Derby when he also ran a disappointing race and showed he may be distance challenged after being among the Kentucky Derby Future Wager favorites for much of this year.
Before this race, Journalism and Barnes dusted Rodriguez by a country mile in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) before he came back to win the Wood Memorial (G2).
Three of the last 15 Kentucky Derby winners won the Santa Anita Derby.
Arkansas Derby (G1)
Sandman finally worked out a good trip and fulfilled his promise when he earned a 99 Beyer winning the Arkansas Derby. He will be among the top contenders next Saturday.
The Arkansas Derby featured Bob Baffert's highly touted maiden winner Cornucopian, who got caught in a speed duel stretching out for the first time.
It also consisted of Rebel Stakes (G2) winner Coal Battle, Southwest Stakes (G3) winner Speed King and improving Publisher, a maiden who could make a bit of noise at a price in the Kentucky Derby.
Florida Derby (G1)
Tappan Street's 94 Beyer came back on the lighter side compared with many of these prep winners, but it was a stronger race than the numbers indicated.
Runner-up Sovereignty is a prime contender in the Kentucky Derby and may not have been fully cranked up for this race after already having enough points to qualify by virtue of winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Third-place finisher Neoequos is a developing runner for Saffie Joseph Jr.
Madaket Road, who is headed for the Pat Day Mile (G2) next Saturday, could manage only fourth in this race. That shows the depth of the field as he previously was second in the Rebel Stakes in front of Sandman.
Disruptor, the fifth-place finisher, was a very impressive maiden winner who still could have a bright future.
Three of the last 15 Florida Derby winners have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, and Maximum Security also crossed the finish line first before being disqualified in 2019.
Wood Memorial (G2)
It is hard to gauge this year's Wood Memorial.
Those who view it negatively will bring up the fact that New York prep races have been dismal in the Kentucky Derby in recent years. There has not been a winner of the Wood Memorial who returned to win the Kentucky Derby since 2000. This year's winner Rodriguez also was handled easily by California's best prior to winning the Wood Memorial.
Those who view it positively will point out the strong 101 Beyer which Rodriguez earned while winning this race. The time of the race was much faster than the Gazelle Stakes for fillies at the same distance earlier on the card.
It is possible that Rodriguez was a better horse without blinkers or that he needs the lead to be at his best. Either way he was a legitimate winner, and those behind him including Grande, Passion Rules and Captain Cook all had strong credentials entering this race.
Hyacinth
Luxor Cafe was very impressive winning Japan's next-to-last Kentucky Derby prep and is a sleeper in his first start in America.
This race proved to be productive when fourth-place finisher Admire Daytona qualified for the Kentucky Derby by winning the UAE Derby (G2), and third-place finisher Don in the Mood returned to run third in the UAE Derby.
Forever Young nearly won the Kentucky Derby last year. T O Password was not a highly regarded as Luxor Cafe this year, and he ran a good fifth in the Derby, proving that the strength of Japan's 3-year-olds continues to improve.