Kentucky Derby 2025: Optics make 2 preps bigger than usual

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The Grade 2 Wood Memorial has not spawned a Kentucky Derby winner since Funny Cide in 2003. The only time in the last 13 years when the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) did it was with Rich Strike in 2022, and it took an 11th-hour dropout to open the door for his 80-1 upset.

This year the Wood and the Jeff Ruby are punching above their weight. They might not produce the winner, but among the 24 horses still listed on the Kentucky Derby 2025 leaderboard, those races graduated four of the six fastest finishers from the climactic U.S. preps.

Kentucky Derby 2025: Early odds and analysis.

Final Gambit went his last furlong in 11.9 seconds and his last three in 35.9 to win the Jeff Ruby with the fastest last-out, closing splits from those final points races.

Rodríguez’s gate-to-wire triumph in the Wood came with closing times of 12.5 and 36.9 seconds, but second-place Grande had an even faster finish.

All this came to light in the calculation of the Final Fractions Theory, the creation of longtime Kentucky turf writer-turned-publicist Jennie Rees. It is one element of a prism that also processes speed ratings and pace projections, all to eliminate horses who do not measure up to historic standards for Derby winners since the ’90s.

There is the caveat of the unsolved analytical mystery of Luxor Café and Admire Daytona. The two Japan-based runners will not pass through America’s grading spectrum until they race in the Derby.

Consensus futures favorite Journalism easily qualifies when every standard in this formula applies. But here is a plot spoiler from the bottom of this report. This exercise is no guarantee of success beneath the twin spires.

Fractionally fast

This is all about how well horses finished their last prep races. The faster they came down the stretch, the more likely they are to maintain that momentum stretching to 1 1/4 miles in the Derby.

Quantifying this began decades ago after a trainer thought out loud to Rees.

“Phil Thomas said, ‘I bet if you looked at it, horses that won the Derby came fast the last quarter-mile of their last prep,’ ” Rees said eight years ago.

Because race charts do not parse the last quarter-mile of nine-furlong races, Rees had to adjust.

“I could compute the last eighth and the last three-eighths,” she said. “I found there is a pattern, definitely.”

Rees discovered two cutlines, a final furlong in 13.0 seconds or less and a last three furlongs in no more than 38.0 seconds. Including Mystik Dan last year, 31 of the last 35 cashable Derby winners did one or the other in their final prep. Cashable, by the way, means Country House in 2019 and Medina Spirit in 2021.

That measuring stick is not a big eliminator this year. Twelve horses qualify, including seven who checked both the 13.0 and 38.0 boxes. Twenty-four of the last 35 Derby winners cleared both hurdles in their final preps.

Medina Spirit, whose disqualification from the 2021 victory came after his win tickets were paid off, was the last exception who counted at the betting window.

This table shows the horses still on the Churchill Downs leaderboard for Kentucky Derby 2025. The numbers next to each name are where they rank on that list, with the 1-18 plus Luxor Café and Admire Daytona being in the field and 21-24 waiting for attrition.

Figures and ratings

Measuring career bests, the benchmark Beyer Speed Figure for Derby winners is at least 95. Twenty-eight of the last 33 were in that club. The minimum Brisnet Speed Rating usually is 100, something 20 of the last 25 Derby winners had on their past performances. Mystik Dan had a 101 in each column before his triumph last year.

The Beyer hurdle published by Daily Racing Form was not cleared by Rich Strike in 2022 or Mage in 2023. Rich Strike also came up short of triple figures on Brisnet before his all-time shocker.

This is where the Jeff Ruby gets some resistance. Final Gambit has a best Brisnet rating of 101, but he has no Beyer above 90. Runner-up Flying Mohawk came up short on both lists. The Ruby being on a synthetic track always carries an asterisk, even in Rees’s final fractions with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Rich Strike three years ago being outliers coming out of Turfway Park.

It will come as little surprise that Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Journalism has the best Beyer and Brisnet numbers, each being 108. Runner-up Baeza is next best, but he still needs three more dropouts to get into the Churchill Downs starting gate.

Twelve Derby contenders fit the Beyer bill. Eleven qualify with triple-digit Brisnet ratings. Nine boast both.

Quirin, schmirin

For a while in the qualifying-points era that began 12 years ago, horses racing forward early were dominant. Five of the first six Derby winners under the new system were quantifiable pacesetters or stalkers. But Country House in 2019, Rich Strike in 2022 and Mystik Dan last year rocked that boat.

Quirin Speed Points, which show up next to horses’ names in Brisnet PPs, map the likely pace. An E designation means early speed. E/P means early presser, a stalker. The letter P is for presser, a mid-pack horse. An S stands for sustaining, a closer. Numbers 0-8 represent how likely a horse is to vie for the lead into the first turn. An E 8 is the ultimate speed horse, and an S 0 is the deepest of closers.

The small sample size of the points era and the Quirins’ object to gauge the start but not the end of races make this optic less than reliable. Nevertheless, Es and E/Ps have accounted for eight of the 12 cashable Derby winners in the points era. They also come with 12 current candidates.

American Promise, Grande, Journalism, Rodríguez and current outsider Baeza are the only five current Derby candidates who check all the boxes.

Last year post-time favorite Fierceness was the only Derby starter who met all these criteria. Despite a 12.6-second final furlong and 36.9-second three furlongs in his last prep and his 110 best Beyer and his 112 Brisnet and E 8 Quirin, he finished 17th.

The last time a Derby winner met all these exacting standards was Justify in 2018.

This brings to mind a theory espoused by renowned postal worker Clifford C. Clavin Jr. 42 years ago on “Cheers.”

“If you were to go back in history and take every president, you’ll find that the numerical value of each letter in their name was equally divisible into the year in which they were elected,” he said. “By my calculations, our next president has to be named Yellnick McWawa.”