Kentucky Derby 2025: Math says 2 horses are in; history adds 4
For the purposes of getting into Kentucky Derby 2025, math starts out being tougher than history. About a month from now, reality will make it easy than both those prisms to know the 20 horses who will run for the roses.
Clinch scenarios are back. Right now only Coal Battle and Owen Almighty have an insurmountable number of qualifying points to be assured mathematically of getting into the big starting gate.
History, however, says Citizen Bull, Sovereignty, Flood Zone and Journalism also will be there, even if they have to wait for the arithmetic to catch up with them. The same goes for the winner of Saturday’s Virginia Derby as well as Getaway Car with a top-three result.
Kentucky Derby prep: Virginia Derby odds & analysis.
After this weekend, the seven most valuable points preps will beckon. The math says the winners will be assured of making it to Churchill Downs. History says the second-place finishers should get there, too.
The mathematical cutline right now is 61 points. As more races are run, that number will drop. Through format changes since the qualifying system was established 12 years ago, no horse with at least 46 points has been denied a place in the Derby. That is the history lesson at play in this exercise.
Right now the goal is to be assured of a top-17 place in the points standings. That is because up to one horse from the Japan trail gets to bypass the queue and get into the gate. So do two horses from the Grade 2 UAE Derby. That race was diverted from the main trail and made the most valuable race on what now is the Euro-Mideast road to the Kentucky Derby.
Flood Zone could create an exception if he were to finish in the top two in the UAE Derby. Since his 50 points on the main road already should get him into the Kentucky Derby, his invitation would be passed to the next horse behind him at the finish line, presuming he or she were eligible and nominated.
Since the narrative can be wordy, a chart always comes in handy.
| Kentucky Derby 2025 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinched, 61+ | Rk. | Pts. | *Earnings | Last race | |
| Coal Battle | 1st | 70.00 | $1,034,500 | 1st Rebel (G2) | |
| Owen Almighty | 2nd | 65.00 | $415,310 | 1st T.B. Derby (G3) | |
| History says yes, 46+ | Rk. | Pts. | *Earnings | Last race | |
| Citizen Bull | 3rd | 60.00 | $1,376,000 | 1st Bob Lewis (G3) | |
| Sovereignty | 4th | 60.00 | $364,800 | 1st F. of Youth (G2) | |
| Flood Zone | 5th | 50.00 | $165,000 | 1st Gotham (G3) | |
| Journalism | 6th | 47.50 | $300,000 | 1st San Felipe (G2) | |
| Clinch if top 3 Sat. | Rk. | Pts. | *Earnings | Last race | Entered |
| Getaway Car | 7th | 36.00 | $540,800 | 1st Sunland Derby | Sat., Va. Derby |
| Clinch with win Sat. | Rk. | Pts. | *Earnings | Last race | Entered |
| Omaha Omaha | 30th | 11.00 | $60,000 | 3rd Withers | Sat., Va. Derby |
| Prob. in with win Sat. | Rk. | Pts. | *Earnings | Last race | Entered |
| Studlydoright | 42nd | 6.00 | $259,775 | 5th Battaglia Mem. | Sat., Va. Derby |
| American Promise | 50th | 5.00 | $35,000 | 5th Risen Star (G2) | Sat., Va. Derby |
| Render Judgment | 55th | 4.00 | $26,610 | 8th Risen Star (G2) | Sat., Va. Derby |
| Calling Card | 0.00 | $4,750 | 7th Gotham (G3) | Sat., Va. Derby | |
| Georgia Magic | 0.00 | $2,250 | 4th alw OC | Sat., Va. Derby | |
| Authentic Gallop | 0.00 | $0 | 1st alw OC | Sat., Va. Derby | |
| Rapture | 0.00 | $0 | 1st MSW | Sat., Va. Derby | |
| Not yet | Rk. | Pts. | *Earnings | Last race | |
| Chancer McPatrick | 8th | 35.00 | $550,000 | 2nd T.B. Derby (G3) | |
| Built | 9th | 35.00 | $160,000 | 3rd Risen Star (G2) | |
| Madaket Road | 10th | 31.00 | $244,000 | 2nd Rebel (G2) | |
| Burnham Square | 11th | 30.00 | $171,800 | 4th F. of Youth (G2) | |
| Sandman | 12th | 29.00 | $307,995 | 3rd Rebel (G2) | |
| Speed King | 13th | 25.00 | $631,250 | 10th Rebel (G2) | |
| Chunk of Gold | 14th | 25.00 | $124,400 | 2nd Risen Star (G2) | |
| River Thames | 15th | 25.00 | $79,200 | 2nd F. of Youth (G2) | |
| Sand Devil | 16th | 25.00 | $60,000 | 2nd Gotham (G3) | |
| Hill Road | 17th | 24.00 | $215,000 | 3rd T.B. Derby (G3) | |
| E-M | |||||
| E-M | |||||
| Jpn | |||||
| Outside looking in | Rk. | Pts. | *Earnings | Last race | |
| Rodriguez | 18th | 21.25 | $76,000 | 3rd San Felipe (G2) | |
| Captain Cook | 19th | 20.00 | $137,500 | 1st Withers | |
| John Hancock | 20th | 20.00 | $120,000 | 1st Sam F. Davis | |
| California Burrito | 21st | 20.00 | $102,850 | 1st Battaglia Mem. | |
| Tiztastic | 22nd | 19.00 | $795,800 | 5th Rebel (G2) | |
| Barnes | 23rd | 18.75 | $180,000 | 2nd San Felipe (G2) | |
| Gaming | 24th | 18.00 | $569,000 | 8th Southwest (G3) | |
| Poster | 25th | 16.00 | $157,500 | 3rd Sam F. Davis | |
| Jonathan's Way | 26th | 15.00 | $213,530 | 2nd Ky. JC (G2) | |
| Neoequos | 27th | 15.00 | $41,250 | 3rd F. of Youth (G2) | |
| Garamond | 28th | 15.00 | $36,000 | 3rd Gotham (G3) | |
| Patch Adams | 29th | 14.00 | $71,500 | 4th T.B. Derby (G3) | |
| East Avenue | 31st | 10.00 | $368,750 | 10th Risen Star (G2) | |
| Baby Max | 32nd | 10.00 | $108,640 | 2nd Battaglia Mem. | |
| Caldera | 33rd | 10.00 | $85,360 | 2nd Sunland Derby | |
| Publisher | 34th | 10.00 | $85,000 | 4th Rebel (G2) | |
| Cyclone State | 35th | 10.00 | $82,500 | 9th Saudi Derby (G3) | |
| Surfside Moon | 36th | 10.00 | $56,000 | 2nd Withers | |
| Tappan Street | 37th | 10.00 | $49,000 | 2nd Holy Bull (G3) | |
| Vassimo | 38th | 10.00 | $20,000 | 4th Risen Star (G2) | |
| Mo Quality | 39th | 9.00 | $63,750 | 4th Withers | |
| Mellencamp | 40th | 8.50 | $22,000 | 4th San Felipe (G2) | |
| Maximum Promise | 41st | 8.00 | $21,750 | 3rd Battaglia Mem. | |
| Touchy | 43rd | 6.00 | $105,000 | 3rd Sunland Derby | |
| Innovator | 44th | 6.00 | $97,500 | 12th Rebel (G2) | |
| Dapper Moon | 45th | 6.00 | $46,238 | 3rd Star Guitar | |
| Burning Glory | 46th | 6.00 | $24,500 | 3rd Holy Bull (G3) | |
| Gate to Wire | 47th | 5.00 | $148,950 | 5th F. of Youth (G2) | |
| Tip Top Thomas | 48th | 5.00 | $100,000 | 2nd Champagne (G1) | |
| Aviator Gui | 49th | 5.00 | $59,000 | 2nd Remsen (G2) | |
| Brodeur | 51st | 5.00 | $10,500 | 5th T.B. Derby (G3) | |
| Clock Tower | 52nd | 4.00 | $103,938 | 4th Bob Lewis (G3) | |
| Take Charge Tom | 53rd | 4.00 | $103,000 | 4th Sunland Derby | |
| Golden Afternoon | 54th | 4.00 | $73,875 | 2nd Black Gold | |
| Camp Hale | 56th | 4.00 | $10,000 | 4th Sam F. Davis | |
| Smooth Cruisein | 57th | 3.75 | $18,000 | 5th San Felipe (G2) | |
| Mo Plex | 58th | 3.00 | $156,250 | 3rd Gander | |
| Kale's Angel | 59th | 3.00 | $118,625 | 1st Renaissance | |
| Filoso | 60th | 3.00 | $59,875 | 7th TB Derby (G3) | |
| Giocoso | 61st | 3.00 | $33,025 | 12th Risen Star (G2) | |
| Tux | 62nd | 3.00 | $33,000 | 8th alw OC | |
| Smoken Wicked | 63rd | 2.00 | $140,450 | 13th Rebel (G2) | |
| He's Not Joking | 64th | 2.00 | $79,113 | 5th Holy Bull (G3) | |
| Bon Temps | 65th | 2.00 | $39,625 | 5th MSW | |
| Monet's Magic | 66th | 2.00 | $36,000 | 5th Southwest (G3) | |
| Admiral Dennis | 67th | 2.00 | $35,250 | 6th Rebel (G2) | |
| Very Bold | 68th | 2.00 | $21,000 | 5th Sam F. Davis | |
| Rank | 69th | 2.00 | $12,500 | 5th Pasadena | |
| Itsmybirthday | 70th | 2.00 | $11,640 | 5th Sunland Derby | |
| Uncle Jim | 71st | 2.00 | $10,000 | 1st OC | |
| Bracket Buster | 72nd | 1.00 | $5,820 | 5th Street Sense (G3) | |
| *Non-restricted stakes | |||||
| E-M Euro-Mideast berth | |||||
| Jpn Japan berth |