Kentucky Derby 2025 guide: Field, analysis, picks, post time
Churchill Downs hosts the Grade 1, $5 million Kentucky Derby 2025 on Saturday, the 151st running of the 1 1/4-mile classic race for three-year-olds on dirt. A field of 19 will start with Journalism coming in as the 3-1 morning-line favorite. No. 21 Baeza has drawn into the field with the scratch of Bob Baffert's Rodriguez. Todd Pletcher's Grande has also scratched.
The run for the roses is race 12 on a 14-race card with post time at 6:57 p.m. EDT.
The Kentucky Derby will be broadcast on NBC and streamed live on Peacock beginning at 2:30 p.m. EDT. Undercard stakes can be found on USA Network and Peacock beginning at noon EDT. FanDuel TV will also have coverage of the Churchill Downs card starting at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
Journalism, a 3-year-old colt sired by hall of famer Curlin, is the morning line favorite. Trained by Michael McCarthy, the colt has turned in four wins in a row with three stakes victories, beginning with the Los Alamitos Futurity (G3) in December and culminating in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Tactical running style and a powerful closing kick have made him the worthy favorite.
Free past performances for the Kentucky Derby and undercard stakes are provided courtesy of Brisnet.
Kentucky Derby wagering started Wednesday. Get the latest Kentucky Derby odds updates.
2025 also marks the return of trainer Bob Baffert, who was suspended from racing at the famed track after 2021 Derby winner Medina Spirit tested positive for a banned substance and was disqualified. Baffert brings Eclipse champion Citizen Bull to his comeback Derby, where he will have an impact on the early pace. Wood Memorial (G2) winner Rodriguez was scratched Thursday evening. Here, Baffert tells Horse Racing Nation's Ron Flatter what it's like to return to the Derby and Churchill Downs.
Late country music artist Toby Keith's first Derby qualifier, Render Judgment, is a long shot, but he's not the only horse with high-profile owners. Sandman, the Arkansas Derby (G1) winner, counts among his owners TikTok star Griffin Johnson, who has 9.7 million followers eagerly awaiting post time. Owen Almighty, who won the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) to earn his spot in the gate, is owned by Dutch Bros. coffee magnate Travis Boersma. Former Major League Baseball star Jayson Werth is back again after his 2024 entrant, Dornoch, won the Belmont Stakes. This year he's co-owner of Flying Mohawk, runner-up in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), a talented closer who has yet to run on dirt.
Trainer Steve Asmussen brings two contenders, Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Tiztastic, who won 2 races on turf within 10 days last September at Kentucky Downs, and the American Pharoah-sired colt Publisher, who has yet to win a race on any surface.
This is just a brief overview of the Kentucky Derby field. Check out the handicapping information and expert plays below.
Get to know all of the Kentucky Derby entrants.
Here are the lifetime top speed figures for the Kentucky Derby starters.
| No. | Horse | Beyer* | TFUS* | Brisnet | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Citizen Bull | 98 | 118 | 107 | 121 |
| 2 | Neoequos | 91 | 116 | 101 | 117 |
| 3 | Final Gambit | 90 | 118 | 101 | 122 |
| scr | Rodriguez | ||||
| 5 | American Promise | 95 | 119 | 105 | 124 |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | ||||
| 7 | Luxor Cafe | ||||
| 8 | Journalism | 108 | 122 | 108 | 130 |
| 9 | Burnham Square | 96 | 117 | 101 | 118 |
| scr | Grande | ||||
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | 85 | 114 | 97 | 118 |
| 12 | East Avenue | 96 | 119 | 97 | 118 |
| 13 | Publisher | 95 | 116 | 98 | 118 |
| 14 | Tiztastic | 95 | 117 | 100 | 121 |
| 15 | Render Judgment | 90 | 113 | 96 | 114 |
| 16 | Coal Battle | 91 | 115 | 98 | 118 |
| 17 | Sandman | 99 | 120 | 101 | 121 |
| 18 | Sovereignty | 95 | 115 | 99 | 117 |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | 92 | 117 | 98 | 118 |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | 92 | 118 | 97 | 121 |
| 21 | Baeza | 101 | 120 | 107 | 123 |
*Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures are provided courtesy of Daily Racing Form.
Pace makes the race
TimeformUS projects a swift pace, with the outside runners having a advantage, though the inside speed will be felt with Citizen Bull, Neoequos and American Promise making an impact on the early fractions. Coal Battle will tuck in behind this wall of speed.
Late runners Burnham Square, Tiztastic and Chunk of Gold take up mid-pack stalking positions. Bringing up the rear into the first turn, TimeformUS projects favored Journalism to be among these closers, as well as Publisher and Sandman.
Though their races are not included in the TimeformUS figures, watching the replays reveals that the two Japan horses will most likely be mid-pack from the speed, not too far back, with Luxor Cafe possibly in the tracker position with Coal Battle. The deep closers are Final Gambit and Sovereignty, who will bide their time to unleash a rally in the homestretch.
Be sure to check out the Kentucky Derby Win Zone stats for more on how the pace will determine the winner.
HRN handicappers
HorseCenter's Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman have posted their Derby tickets featuring their top picks on top - see who they like.
HRN's Ed DeRosa has zeroed-in on one top Derby pick and has a plan for how to use him in his mutli-race wagers.
Here are five value plays for the Kentucky Derby undercard.
Ron Flatter talks to everyone on the backstretch during Derby week, and you can hear the conversations on his Ron Flatter Pod. Among a stacked guest list are D. Wayne Lukas, Caton Bredar, Jayson Werth, Mike Repole, Kate Hunter, Steve Asmussen and HRN's Mark Midland and Ed DeRosa. Put on your noise-canceling headphones and listen now.
Super Screener's Mike Shutty has two live long shots you can't leave off your tickets: watch the video to see who they are and why they're superfecta bomb candidates. He's also giving a skeptical eye to three short-priced horses who you might have heard about this week. Before you bet, watch this video.
For more in-depth analysis and wagering tips, get the Kentucky Derby Super Screener. There's still time to have your best Derby ever.