Kentucky Derby 2025: 10 horses who you should toss

Step 1 to analyzing a 20-horse field is narrowing it down to a more manageable group of contenders.

The connections of every horse entered in Kentucky Derby 2025 have dreams of winning, but more often than not there is only a handful of true contenders. Certain horses look great when circumstances go their way, but it is runners who still can perform under less-than-ideal situations who are best suited to compete in this large group.

Draw, odds for Kentucky Derby 2025.

Alphabetically, I analyze 10 horses to toss from the exotics when handicapping this Kentucky Derby.

6. Admire Daytona (30-1). The Japan runner earned a berth to the Kentucky Derby with the narrowest of victories in the Grade 2 UAE Derby, which was one of the weakest editions in recent years. He wired the field that day and will have a hard time making the lead on Saturday with an abundance of other speed lined up. The son of Drefong was no match for Luxor Cafe as he ran fourth when they met in February in Japan and has bigger concerns in this race.

5. American Promise (30-1). D. Wayne Lukas is known to pull off surprises on big stages, but it is hard to imagine this son of Tapit delivering the upset. His romping Virginia Derby win was a sharp form reversal following his fifth- and sixth-place finishes in his prior Derby preps. His wins have come when on or pressing the lead, and he has not shown the ability to pass horses. He will be one of many jostling for the early lead and likely will have little left late. 

19. Chunk Of Gold (30-1). The $2,500 purchase is a nice story who has far surpassed expectations, but he would need to take another large step forward to make an impact Saturday. I feel the Louisiana crop of 3-year-olds has not been strong this year, and he was no threat to the winner in either of his runner-up finishes in these preps. It is hard to a trust a closer who losses ground in the stretch. 

1. Citizen Bull (20-1). The 2-year-old male champion of 2024 is one of only two horses who ran in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile to make it to this year's Kentucky Derby. The 2024 Juvenile was extremely weak, and his win in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) came against a pair of his stablemates who did not pressure him on the lead. He had nothing to offer late in his first real test of the year when getting beaten out by a maiden for third in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). He has distance questions and is likely to face an immense amount of pace pressure. Trainer Bob Baffert planned to remove the blinkers to try to get this colt to rate, but after drawing the rail, he likely will have no choice but to be sent hard to the lead.

16. Coal Battle (30-1) This colt defeated Sandman in the Rebel (G2), but Sandman easily turned the tables on him with added distance in the Arkansas Derby (G1). His Daily Racing Form Tomlinson distance rating of 187 is the only one in the field under 235. He struggled to stay the distance in Arkansas, and the added ground of the Kentucky Derby will not be his friend. 

12. East Avenue (20-1). It was nice to see this colt return to form when adding blinkers in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). He has run three good races when on the lead and two poor races when failing to get to the front. Although he ran well, he could not hold off Burnham Square in the Blue Grass. With Citizen Bull, Owen Almighty, American Promise, Neoequos and Admire Daytona all pressuring him early in the Kentucky Derby, it is hard to imagine him holding on late.

11. Flying Mohawk (30-1). This colt is bred for the turf and has yet to run a race on synthetic or turf that would make him competitive against this group. It is unlikely he will run the race of his life when trying dirt for the first time. 

2. Neoequos (30-1). Saffie Joseph Jr.'s colt is improving, but he looks like he would be better served in the one-turn Pat Day Mile (G2) than the Kentucky Derby. The Florida-bred will be pressing a hot pace and is unlikely to have much to offer late.

20. Owen Almighty (30-1). Much like Neoequos, he would have a better chance in a much shorter race. He tired badly when making a middle move in the Blue Grass, and trainer Brian Lynch even admitted after the race that the 1 1/8 miles likely were farther than he wanted to travel. Caught up in his owners' Derby fever, this colt is asked to go even farther instead of turning back in distance. He will face a contested pace from a wide draw and would be a huge surprise despite possessing ability. 

15. Render Judgment (30-1). Kenny McPeek will look to win his second Kentucky Derby in a row, but after finishing a distant second in the Virginia Derby and a non-competitive fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes, this colt looks up against it. Like Chunk of Gold, he is a closer who loses ground in the stretch, and that is not a good recipe for success.