Kentucky Derby 2025: Early full-field odds and analysis

The road to Kentucky Derby 2025 began Sept. 14 at Churchill Downs, ended April 12 at Keeneland and included 36 points prep races, with 107 different horses winning qualifying points. With 17 days until the run for the roses, 45 is the number of points required to get in the starting gate. At this time last year, the number was 40.

During the points era, which began in 2013, there were some clear trends from the 12 horses who crossed the finish line in front. These statistics include Medina Spirit and Maximum Security, who were disqualified from their first-place finishes.

Eight of the winners prepped for the Derby with a victory in a 100-point race. Four were in the Grade 1 Florida Derby, two in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and one each in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and the Haskell (G1).

Only four run for the roses victors rallied from far back to win, Orb in 2013 and the last three years with Mystik Dan, Mage and Rich Strike. The other eight were either front runners or stalkers, and none of them ever were farther back than third place.

The favorite lost in the last five runnings of the Kentucky Derby, producing winners who had odds from 4.1-1 to 80.8-1, and only two of the favorites finished in the top three. Six favorites in a row from 2013 to 2018 were the winner with odds, ranging from 2.30-1 to 5.40-1

The projected field, as it currently stands, includes 20 horses who are listed in order of possible-morning line odds, sire, trainer, probable jockey assignment, Derby points earned, most recent race result, their highest Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form, career record and earnings.

Journalism, 7-2. Curlin – Michael McCarthy / Umberto Rispoli – 122.5, 1st Santa Anita Derby (G1), 108 - 5: 4-0-1, $638,880. Journalism comes to the Kentucky Derby with four wins in a row, including the Santa Anita Derby, which is typically a 100-point race, the San Felipe (G2) and the Los Alamitos (G2) as a 2-year-old. He has a pair of triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures, including a 108 from the San Felipe. That's the highest among all of the Derby possibles and is tied for the top number of any 3-year-old this year. He will travel outside of California for the first time. Michael McCarthy had his first Derby starter last year. Expected Derby favorite.

Sovereignty, 7-1. Into Mischief – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado - 110, 2nd Florida Derby, 95 - 5: 2-2-0, $572,800. Sovereignty had a pair of wins on the Derby trail in the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs and the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park. Last seen, he was gaining with his usual late rally to finish second in the Florida Derby (G1). Regular rider Junior Alvarado will be back on board. Mott won the 2019 Derby with Country House when Maximum Security was disqualified. Win contender.

Sandman, 8-1. Tapit – Mark Casse / Jose Ortiz - 129, 1st Arkansas Derby, 99 - 8: 3-1-2, $1,254,595. Sandman won the Arkansas Derby in his fifth start on the Derby trail when he rallied from the back of the field. He made three starts at Churchill and with eight races is one of the most experienced horses in the Derby field. Casse will try for his first Derby victory with his 11th starter. Win contender.

Luxor Cafe, 10-1. American Pharoah – Noriyuki Hori / Joao Moreira - Japan, 1st Fukuryu, NA - 6: 4-1-0, $379,057. Luxor Café also won his last four starts, which were in Japan. He won three stakes races in his country to get the spot in the run for the roses from the Japan road to the Kentucky Derby. Luxor Cafe will make his first start outside of Japan, and his trainer is a Derby rookie. Toss.

Tappan Street, 10-1. Into Mischief – Brad Cox / Luis Saez - 110, 1st Florida Derby, 94 - 3: 2-1-0, $643,400. Tappan Street prepped for the run for the roses in Florida and made all three of his starts at Gulfstream. He won his debut at the end of December, moved onto the Derby trail with a second in the Holy Bull (G3) and then got a 100-point victory in the Florida Derby with a stalking trip. Cox got credited with a Kentucky Derby win with Mandaloun in 2021 after Medina Spirit was disqualified. Win contender.

Burnham Square, 12-1. Liam’s Map – Ian Wilkes / Brian Hernandez Jr. - 130, 1st Blue Grass, 96 - 6: 3-1-1, $977,755. Burnham Square comes to the Derby on top of the points list based on three starts this year and two victories. After a nine-length maiden score in his third start, he won the Holy Bull. He was fourth in the Fountain of Youth as the favorite and bounced back to get a 100-point win in the Blue Grass closing from last in that field of seven. Ian Wilkes will make his second appearance in the Derby. Win contender.

Rodriguez, 12-1. Authentic – Bob Baffert / Mike Smith – 121.25, 1st Wood Memorial (G2), 101 - 5: 2-2-1, $522,800. Rodriguez is one of three probable starters in the Kentucky Derby for Bob Baffert as he returns to the big race for the first time since 2021 seeking a record seventh victory. Rodriguez got a 100-point victory when he shipped to New York to win the Wood Memorial with a front-end victory in a strong 1:48 time for the nine furlongs. This year he also was second in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) and third in the San Felipe. Win contender.

Tiztastic, 15-1. Tiz the Law – Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario - 119, 1st Louisiana Derby (G2), 95 - 8: 3-1-2, $1,549,800. Tiztastic won twice on the turf as a 2-year-old and then moved on to make five starts on the Derby trail. He ran the best race of his career when he won the 100-point Louisiana Derby with a late rally. Steve Asmussen is expected have two horses in this year’s Derby. Asmussen leads all trainers with 10,854 victories, but he has not won the run for the roses after 26 starters. Win contender.

Admire Daytona, 20-1. Drefong – Yukihiro Kato / Christophe Lemaire - Europe, 1st UAE Derby (G2), European - 6: 2-2-0, $672,047. Admire Daytona makes his way to the Kentucky Derby as the points leader of the Euro-Mideast road to the Derby. This Japan-bred won the UAE Derby (G2) in his first start outside of his home country with a nose victory in the 100-point qualifier. Trainer Yukihiro Kato will make his first appearance in the run for the roses. Toss.

Citizen Bull, 20-1. Into Mischief – Bob Baffert / Martin Garcia – 71.25, 4th Santa Anita Derby, 98 - 6: 4-1-0, $1,451,000. Citizen Bull made four starts on the Derby trail going back to 2024 when he won the American Pharoah (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to secure the 2-year-old division championship. He came back this year in the Robert B. Lewis with another front-end victory and then faded badly to fourth in the Santa Anita Derby. Citizen Bull is the second Baffert runner in this field. Toss.

East Avenue, 20-1. Medaglia d’Oro – Brendan Walsh / TBD - 60, 2nd Blue Grass (G1), 96 - 5: 2-1-0, $654,395. East Avenue was a winner on the Derby trail as a 2-year-old in his second start in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) with a front-running score. He stumbled badly in the start of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and lost all chance. East Avenue showed speed in the Risen Star (G2) to start 2025 but faded to 10th. He bounced back in the Blue Grass and was second by a nose after setting the pace. This is Brendan Walsh’s second Derby runner. Toss.

Grande, 20-1. Curlin – Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez - 50, 2nd Wood Memorial, 97 – 3: 2-1-0, $228,200. Grande won his first two starts at Gulfstream during the winter going a mile and then another furlong after pressing the pace. In the Wood Memorial he rallied from seventh and a second-place finish got him eligible for the Derby. Todd Pletcher won the Derby with Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017 with John Velazquez as the rider. Win contender.

American Promise, 25-1. Justify – D. Wayne Lukas / Nik Juarez - 55, 1st Virginia Derby, 95 - 9: 2-1-1, $444,874. American Promise is the most experienced horse in the field, with nine starts. He broke his maiden in his sixth race and moved onto the Derby trail, where he had a pair of lackluster performances. American Promise had a career-best effort to win the Virginia Derby by almost eight lengths. He will become the 51st Derby horse for D. Wayne Lukas, who has four victories in the run for roses from 1988 to 1999. Toss.

Coal Battle, 25-1. Coal Front – Lonnie Briley / Juan Vargas - 95, 3rd Arkansas Derby (G1), 91 - 8: 5-0-1, $1,188,875. Coal Battle leads this group in wins with five. He began his career as turf horse but two victories on wet dirt tracks prompted veteran trainer Lonnie Briley to try the Derby trail. He went on to win qualifying points in his next four races, with wins in the Springboard Mile, the Smarty Jones and the Rebel (G2). Coal Battle was third in the nine-furlong Arkansas Derby. The classic distance has to be a concern. Toss.

Owen Almighty, 25-1. Speightstown – Brian Lynch / TBD - 65, 6th Blue Grass (G1), 93 - 7: 3-2-0, $499,935. Owen Almighty is back in the Derby field after connections changed plans. He made four starts on the Derby trail beginning with a second in the Iroquois (G3) in 2024. He thrived at Tampa Bay Downs with a second in the Sam F. Davis and a front-end victory in the Tampa Derby (G3). In the Blue Grass, he pressed the pace and faded to finish sixth.  Toss.

Final Gambit, 33-1. Not This Time – Brad Cox / Luan Machado - 100, 1st Jeff Ruby (G3), 90 - 4: 2-1-1, $520,639. Final Gambit is the synthetic specialist with three starts at Turfway Park. He broke his maiden in February and then had a visually impressive victory in the 100-point Jeff Ruby, where he rallied from last to win by 3 1/2 lengths. Toss.

Chunk of Gold, 40-1. Preservationist – Ethan West / Jareth Loveberry - 75, 2nd Louisiana Derby (G1), 92 – 4: 1-3-0, $348,818. Chunk of Gold was a debut winner at Turfway Park in December and then went on to finish second in his next three races. To start this year, he went a mile in a stakes on Tapeta and moved onto the Derby trail in the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby. This will be Ethan West’s first Derby starter. Toss.

Madaket Road. 40-1. Quality Road – Bob Baffert / TBD - 46, 4th Florida Derby (G1), 90 - 5: 1-2-1, $326,000. Madaket Road is the third of the Baffert runners. He debuted with a second in the Bob Hope (G3) last year and got his only victory in a maiden at Santa Anita at the end of 2024. Baffert moved him onto the Derby trailm where he was third in the Robert B. Lewis, second in the Rebel and fourth in the Florida Derby after setting the pace. Toss.

Publisher, 40-1. American Pharoah – Steve Asmussen / Irad Ortiz Jr. - 60, 2nd Arkansas Derby, 95 - 7: M-2-3, $407,756. Publisher is still a maiden after seven starts for Steve Asmussen. He had four top three finishes as a 2-year-old and then Asmussen moved him onto the Derby trail at Oaklawn in 2025. Publisher was sixth in the Southwest (G3), fourth in the Rebel and rallied for far back in the Arkansas Derby to finish second. Toss.

Flying Mohawk, 50-1. Karakontie – Whit Beckman / Joseph Ramos - 50, 2nd Jeff Ruby (G3), 84 - 6: 2-0-0, $295,800. Flying Mohawk raced five times on turf at the start of his career, with a maiden breaker at Churchill in October followed by an allowance win at Fair Grounds. A second in the Jeff Ruby got him 50 points. Trainer Whit Beckman had his first Kentucky Derby starter last year with Honor Marie, who finished eighth. Toss.

Next four in the field (ordered by points):

Built, 50-1. Hard Spun – Wayne Catalano / TBD - 45, 5th Louisiana Derby (G2), 92 - 6: 2-1-2, $244,204. 

Neoequos, 50-1. Neolithic – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Edgard Zayas - 40, 3rd Florida Derby, 91 - 7: 2-2-2, $291,050.

Render Judgment, 50-1. Blame – Ken McPeek / Sheldon Russell - 39, 5th Blue Grass, 90 - 7: 1-2-1, $250,672.

Baeza, 15-1. McKinzie – John Shirreffs / Hector Berrios – 37.5, 2nd Santa Anita Derby (G1), 101 - 4: 1-2-0, $148,500.

Summary: Journalism and Sovereignty look like the most likely winners of the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Six other horses are considered here as win contenders.

Frequently, the Derby trifecta has a generous payout because of the 20-horse field even if the favorite is the winner. Because Journalism has distinguished himself as the horse to beat, keying him in the trifecta with the other win contenders is a worthy wagering possibility.