Kentucky Derby 2024: Shapiro analyzes running styles
The final piece of the puzzle has been assembled. The post positions have been drawn for the 150th run for the roses, and there was little drama with 5-2-morning line favorite Fierceness avoiding an inside gate and drawing outside the other main speeds.
Now it is time to visualize how the race might play out before starting to construct our wagers. With that in mind, let’s take a glance at the runners likeliest to win Kentucky Derby 2024 with different running styles.
It is pretty clear to me that Fierceness is by far the likeliest to win this year’s Derby in gate-to-wire fashion. With his outside draw, if the son of City of Light outbreaks the field, he could be long gone. With all the other early zip to his inside, three-time Derby winning jockey John Velazquez will have options out of the gate. It is not the most probable outcome to think Fierceness crosses and clears instead of being content to stalk just off the pace, but quite frankly I will be surprised if any other runner takes this field all the way on the engine.
One could easily argue that Fierceness is also likeliest to stalk, pounce and capture the roses, but I like the chances of Just a Touch to do just that and win this year’s Derby. The Brad Cox trainee drew between speeds, so his break and the early decision-making of Florent Geroux will be pivotal. The son of Triple Crown winner Justify ran extremely well in his first trip around two turns in the Grade 1 Blue Grass and should relish the added ground.
Sitting mid-pack, making a move on the far turn and holding on late has been a winning move in the Derby often over the years. Catching Freedom, another Cox runner, is likeliest in this bunch to do that on Saturday. The Albaugh Family Stables runner came from the rear to win the Louisiana Derby (G2), but I think his best chance assuming a clean break is to get the jump on the true deep closers, whom I expect to have a bit more punch than the son of Constitution. Flavian Prat rode him to victory in New Orleans and rides him once again in the biggest race of the young colt’s career. Prat fits him perfectly. Expect the Frenchman to save ground and avoid being too far out of it in the early going.
I have respect for other closers in this field, particularly Honor Marie and Catching Freedom, but Sierra Leone is the clearly the likeliest to make a Street Sense or Rich Strike type move from the back to capture the roses. The Chad Brown trainee has done virtually nothing wrong as he enteres the Derby 3-for-4 with his lone loss coming to Dornoch by a nose over the muddy going in the Remsen (G2). Jockey Tyler Gaffalione has won a ton of races in Louisville in the last several years but not the biggest one. It will be interesting to see if he can navigate a trip from off the pace on this pricey, good-looking son of 2017 horse of the year Gun Runner.
Best of luck on Saturday!
Scott Shapiro spent six years as a television host and handicapper for Churchill Downs Inc. He also analyzes sports betting with an emphasis on the NFL and the PGA Tour.