Kentucky Derby 2024 scouting report: West division
The west division of the 2024 Kentucky Derby scouting report includes Derby prep races that are run in California, Arkansas, Kentucky and Louisiana. That means stakes for the most part at Santa Anita Park, Oaklawn Park, Fair Grounds, Churchill Downs, Turfway Park and Keeneland.
Since the road to the Derby began in September, eight official points races have been run and four of them were won by 2-year-olds who are part of the west division. Muth was victorious in the Grade 1 American Pharoah at Santa Anita. West Saratoga won the first points race in September, the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill. Honor Marie picked up 10 points for his triumph in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), and Liberal Arts won the Street Sense under the Twin Spires.
Of the 31 current 2-year-olds listed in the west division of this first Derby scouting report, trainer Bob Baffert has six horses and Brad Cox and Steve Asmussen each train four.
Horses trained by Bob Baffert are included in this Derby scouting report, although they are ineligible to earn Derby qualifying points, be part of the Kentucky Derby Future Wagers as individual betting interests or run in the Derby itself because of Baffert's suspension by Churchill Downs. These horses would have to be transferred to another trainer to be able to earn points and to compete in the Kentucky Derby.
The following lists shows each horse with his odds at Caesars Sportsbook in Nevada, Kentucky Derby Future Wager odds from pool 2 last month, sire, trainer, owner, most recent race and Derby qualifying points. All horses shown with KDFW odds of 6-5 were part of a mutuel field of all other 2-year-olds not individually listed, including those trained by Baffert.
The leader
Muth. Caesars 40-1; KDFW 6-5; Good Magic; Bob Baffert; Zedan Racing Stables; 2nd Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at SA; 0 Derby points. In four starts Muth won two, his debut maiden race and the American Pharoah. He was second in the Best Pal (G2) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. If he were eligible for Derby points he would have 20, which would lead all horses in the west division. The son of Good Magic is listed as a possible starter in Saturday’s Los Alamitos Futurity (G2).
First tier
These contenders are stakes winners and/or have earned Derby qualifying points. They are listed alphabetically.
Honor Marie. Caesars 75-1; KDFW 6-5; Honor Code; Whit Beckman; Ribble Farms; 1st Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at CD; 10 Derby points.
Just Steel. Caesars 150-1; KDFW 6-5; Justify, D. Wayne Lukas; BC Stables; 1st Ed Brown at CD; 0 Derby points.
Liberal Arts. Caesars 100-1; KDFW 46-1; Arrogate; Robert Medina; Evan and Stephen Ferraro; 1st Street Sense at CD; 13 Derby points.
Nysos. Caesars 20-1; KDFW 6-5; Nyquist; Bob Baffert; Baoma Corp.; 1st Bob Hope (G3) at Del Mar; 0 Derby points.
Real Men Violin. Caesars 100-1; KDFW 99-1; Mendelssohn; Kenny McPeek; Titled Shamrock Stables; 2nd Kentucky Jockey Club at CD; 5 Derby points.
Risk It. Caesars 65-1; KDFW 65-1; Gun Runner; Steve Asmussen; Winchell Thoroughbreds and Three Chimneys; 4th Kentucky Jockey Club at CD; 7 Derby points.
Stretch Ride. Caesars 85-1; KDFW 59-1; Street Sense; Dale Romans; West Point Thoroughbreds; 3rd Kentucky Jockey Club at CD; 3 Derby points.
West Saratoga. Caesars 85-1; KDFW 99-1; Exaggerator; Larry Demeritte; Harry Veruchi; 5th Breeders’ Futurity at KEE, 11 Derby points.
Second tier
These horses have a noteworthy performance beyond their maiden victory but have not won a Derby prep. They are listed alphabetically.
Balta. Caesars 175-1; KDFW 6-5; Munnings; Paulo Lobo; OXO Equine; 1st allowance at CD.
Bergen. Caesars 150-1; KDFW 77-1; Liam’s Map; Brad Cox; Spendthrift Farm, Martin Schwartz, Gandharvi, Big Easy Racing, Winners Win, James Bakke, Titletown Racing, Kueber Racing, Golconda Stable, Ali Goodrich and Mark Parkinson; 2nd allowance at CD.
Glengarry. Caesars 200-1; KDFW 99-1; Maximus Mischief; Doug Anderson; Aaron Kennedy and Toby Joseph; 1st Bowman Mill at CD.
Lightline. Caesars 65-1; KDFW 99-1; City of Light; Brad Cox; Albaugh Family Stables; 2nd allowance at KEE.
Otto the Conquerer. Caesars 125-1; KDFW 6-5; Street Sense; Steve Asmussen; Three Chimneys Farm; 1st allowance at CD.
Parchment Party. Caesars 125-1; KDFW 35-1; Constitution; Bill Mott; Pin Oak Stud; 1st allowance at CD.
Snead. Caesars 100-1; KDFW 6-5; Nyquist; Brendan Walsh; Imagine Racing and Margaret Fauber; 1st allowance at FG.
Stronghold. Caesars 65-1; KDFW 99-1; Ghostzapper; Philip D’Amato; Eric Waller and Sharon Waller, 2nd Bob Hope (G3) at DMR.
Who Dey. Caesars 125-1; KDFW 6-5; Liam’s Map; Thomas Drury Jr.; Maccabee Farm; 1st allowance at CD.
Ones to watch
This is a list of current 2-year-olds with impressive maiden victories who could be preparing to make starts in Kentucky Derby prep races.
Carbone. Caesars 40-1; KDFW 18-1; Mitole; Steve Asmussen; William and Corinne Heiligbrodt; 1st maiden special weight at CD.
Coach Prime. Caesars 50-1; KDFW 6-5; Quality Road; Bob Baffert; Zedan Racing Stable; 1st maiden special weight at DMR.
Fifth Avenue. Caesars 150-1; KDFW 6-5; Street Sense; Riley Mott; GMP Stables, Three Chimneys Farm, Bruce Lunsford and Rebel Racing; 1st maiden special weight at ELP.
Heartland. Caesars 125-1; KDFW 6-5; Justify; Bob Baffert; Zedan Racing Stable; 1st maiden special weight at DMR.
Knightsbridge - Caesars 35-1, KDFW 19-1, Nyquist, Bill Mott, Godolphin, 1st maiden special weight at CD.
Legalize. Caesars 150-1; KDFW 6-5; Constitution; Cherie DeVaux; Twin Brook Stables, Belladonna Racing, Nice Guys Stables, West Point Thoroughbreds, Iapetus Racing, Hornstock, Runnels Racing, Perrine Time Thoroughbreds, RTR Stables, Peppermint Stables, and Manganaro Bloodstock; 1st maiden special weight at CD.
Lucky Jeremy. Caesars 200-1; KDFW 6-5; Lookin At Lucky; William Morey; H. M. A Stable; 1st maiden special weight at CD.
Moonlit Sonata. Caesars 150-1; KDFW 6-5; Malibu Moon; Tim Yakteen; Soma Racing Stables; 1st maiden special weight at DMR.
Nash. Caesars 40-1; KDFW 18-1; Medaglia d’Oro; Brad Cox; Godolphin, 1st maiden special weight at CD.
Pass the Hat. Caesars 125-1; KDFW 6-5; Collected; Tom Amoss; Pin Oak Stud; 1st maiden special weight at ELP.
Pilot Commander. Caesars 100-1; KDFW 6-5; Justify; Bob Baffert; CSLR Racing Partners; 1st maiden special weight at DMR.
Rocketeer. Caesars 125-1; KDFW 6-5; Curlin; Brad Cox; eFive Racing and Ian Brennan; 1st maiden special weight at KEE.
Track Phantom. Caesars 75-1; KDFW 6-5; Quality Road; Steve Asmussen; L and N Racing, Clark Brewster, Jerry Caroom and Breeze Easy; 1st maiden special weight at CD.
Remaining west division preps
Springboard Mile – Remington Park, Dec. 15, 10-5-3-2-1
Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) – Los Alamitos, Dec. 16, 10-5-3-2-1
Gun Runner – Fair Grounds, Dec. 23, 10-5-3-2-1
Smarty Jones – Oaklawn, Jan. 1, 10-5-3-2-1
Sham (G3) – Santa Anita, Jan. 7, 10-5-3-2-1
Lecomte (G3) – Fair Grounds, Jan. 20, 20-10-6-4-2
Southwest (G3) – Oaklawn, Jan. 27, 20-10-6-4-2
Robert B. Lewis (G3) – Santa Anita, Feb. 3, 20-10-6-4-2
Risen Star (G2) – Fair Grounds, Feb. 17, 50-25-15-10-5
Sunland Derby – Sunland Park, Feb. 18, 10-5-3-2-1
Rebel (G2) – Oaklawn, Feb. 24, 50-25-15-10-5
San Felipe (G2) – Santa Anita, March 2, 50-25-15-10-5
John Battaglia Memorial – Turfway Park, March 2, 20-10-6-4-2
Louisiana Derby (G2) – Fair Grounds, March 23, 100-50-25-15-10
Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) – Turfway, March 23, 100-50-25-15-10
Arkansas Derby (G1) – Oaklawn, March 30, 100-50-25-15-10
Santa Anita Derby (G1) – Santa Anita, April 6, 100-50-25-15-10
Lexington (G3) – Keeneland, April 13, 20-10-6-4-2