Kentucky Derby 2024: Math says 6 horses have clinched a spot
The arithmetic says seven horses have assured themselves of invitations to Kentucky Derby 2024. Well, really it is six. Past experience suggests at least four or five more should have their connections confident enough to make plans for May 4 at Churchill Downs.
After Catching Freedom punched his ticket by winning the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on Saturday, and since Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) victor Endlessly apparently will be diverted to the turf, the mathematical cutline did not move much. Any horse with at least 65 points has clinched.
First Look: See who could clinch this weekend.
Track Phantom, West Saratoga and Honor Marie had enough points from their previous preps to earn their way into the Derby thanks to their top-four finishes Saturday. Timberlake, who will race this weekend in the Arkansas Derby (G1), already had clinched.
T O Password, the winner of Saturday’s Fukuryu Stakes, looks like he will use the invitation that comes from the Japan road to the Derby. Triple Crown liaison Kate Hunter said that if he did not, Ramjet would take it.
That would leave 19 post positions to be filled by qualifiers from the main points trail, but it could be only 18. There is the small complication of waiting for the Europe invitation to be accepted or rejected. That will not be formal until after the April 6 running of the Cardinal Stakes at Chelmsford City, England.
There are 100-point rewards still sitting out there for the winners of the six major preps this weekend and next, including the UAE Derby (G2), Florida Derby (G1) and Arkansas Derby on Saturday. That means six horses with no points could poach those invitations. Add 50 points to each of the horses ranked 21st through 26th, and that means there could be as many as 18 horses with at least 65 points.
The cutline is likely to come down as horses already in the top 20 finish in the top two of the major preps. As a result, Dornoch, Domestic Product, Sierra Leone and Deterministic and maybe even No More Time probably are in. It just not mathematically certain yet.
With points and earnings reported by Churchill Downs, these are the current clinch scenarios for Kentucky Derby 2024:
| Kentucky Derby 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Already clinched | Rank | Pts. | **Earnings | Trainer |
| Catching Freedom | 1st | 125 | $802,000 | Brad Cox |
| Endlessly - x | 2nd | 100 | $658,000 | Michael McCarthy |
| Track Phantom | 3rd | 70 | $300,000 | Steve Asmussen |
| West Saratoga | 4th | 67 | $363,640 | Larry Demeritte |
| Timberlake | 5th | 66 | $1,053,750 | Brad Cox |
| Honor Marie | 6th | 65 | $448,455 | Whit Beckman |
| T O Password | JPN | $161,743 | Daisuke Takayanagi | |
| Not quite | Rank | Pts. | **Earnings | Trainer |
| Dornoch | 7th | 60 | $425,500 | Danny Gargan |
| Domestic Product | 8th | 60 | $260,500 | Chad Brown |
| Sierra Leone | 9th | 55 | $290,000 | Chad Brown |
| Deterministic | 10th | 50 | $165,000 | Christophe Clément |
| No More Time | 11th | 45 | $194,380 | José D'Angelo |
| Common Defense | 12th | 37 | $253,450 | Kenny McPeek |
| Fierceness | 13th | 36 | $1,069,500 | Todd Pletcher |
| El Grande O | 14th | 30 | $151,000 | Linda Rice |
| Seize the Grey | 15th | 27 | $100,663 | D. Wayne Lukas |
| Stronghold | 16th | 25 | $292,800 | Phil D'Amato |
| Le Dom Bro | 17th | 25 | $106,000 | Eniel Cordero |
| Tuscan Gold | 18th | 25 | $100,000 | Chad Brown |
| Just a Touch | 19th | 25 | $60,000 | Brad Cox |
| Mystik Dan | 20th | 21 | $418,800 | Kenny McPeek |
| Need work or help | Rank | Pts. | **Earnings | Trainer |
| Hades | 21st | 20 | $161,900 | Joe Orseno |
| Uncle Heavy | 22nd | 20 | $137,500 | Butch Reid |
| Encino | 23rd | 20 | $87,536 | Brad Cox |
| Liberal Arts | 24th | 19 | $220,325 | Robbie Medina |
| Mc Vay | 25th | 19 | $48,000 | John Shirreffs |
| Northern Flame | 26th | 18 | $143,800 | Kenny McPeek |
| Lucky Jeremy | 27th | 16 | $119,200 | Bill Morey |
| Scatify | 28th | 16 | $42,000 | John Sadler |
| Just Steel | 29th | 15 | $365,795 | D. Wayne Lukas |
| Frankie's Empire | * | 15 | $138,100 | Bo Yates |
| Grand Mo the First | 30th | 15 | $71,250 | Víctor Barboza Jr. |
| Triple Espresso | 31st | 15 | $63,000 | Todd Pletcher |
| Nash | 32nd | 13 | $164,000 | Brad Cox |
| Agate Road | 33rd | 10 | $214,750 | Todd Pletcher |
| Otto the Conqueror | 34th | 10 | $207,600 | Steve Asmussen |
| Alotaluck | 35th | 10 | $105,360 | Ty Garrett |
| Epic Ride | 36th | 10 | $104,565 | John Ennis |
| Dancing Groom | 37th | 10 | $88,902 | Antonio Sano |
| Woodcourt | * | 10 | $79,275 | Cipriano Contreras |
| Real Macho | 38th | 10 | $20,000 | Rohan Crichton |
| Maximus Meridius | 39th | 10 | $18,000 | Butch Reid |
| Good Money | 40th | 10 | $17,500 | Chad Brown |
| Resilience | 41st | 10 | $16,000 | Bill Mott |
| *Not nominated for TC | ||||
| **Non-restricted stakes | ||||
| x Expected to skip Derby | ||||
| JPN Japan berth |