Kentucky Derby 2024: Early full-field odds and analysis

The road to the Kentucky Derby 2024 began Sept. 16 at Churchill Downs and ended April 13 at Keeneland and consisted of 36 prep races that carried qualifying points. With 17 days until the run for the roses, 40 is the number of points required to get in the starting gate. At this time last year, the number was 46.

During the points era, which began in 2013, there were clear trends from the 11 horses that crossed the finish line in front. These statistics include Medina Spirit and Maximum Security, who were disqualified from their first-place finishes.

Eight of the winners prepped for the Derby with a victory in a 100-point race. Four were in the Florida Derby, two in the Santa Anita Derby and one each in the Arkansas Derby and the Haskell.

Only three Kentucky Derby winners rallied from far back to win, Orb in 2013 and last two years with Mage and Rich Strike. The other eight were either front runners or stalkers, and none of them were ever farther back than third-place.

The favorite lost in the last five runnings of the Kentucky Derby, but from 2013 to 2018 six favorites in a row were the winner with odds ranging from 2.30-1 to 5.40-1.

The projected field, as it currently stands, includes 20 horses who are listed in order of possible morning-line odds, sire, trainer, probable jockey assignment, Derby points earned, most recent race result, their highest Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form, career record and earnings.

Fierceness, 5-2. City of Light - Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez - 136, 1st Florida Derby (G1), 110 - 5: 3-0-1, $1,703,850. Fierceness bounced back from his disappointing third-place finish in the Holy Bull (G3) with a brilliant victory in the Florida Derby. The 2-year-old champion extended his lead throughout the nine-furlong prep race to earn the highest speed figure in this field. That victory stamped him as the horse to beat and the likely favorite on the first Saturday in May as Todd Pletcher seeks his third Derby win and John Velazquez his fourth. Win contender.

Sierra Leone, 3-1. Gun Runner – Chad Brown / Tyler Gaffalione - 155, 1st Blue Grass (G1), 98 - 4: 3-1-0, $918,000. Sierra Leone is just a nose away from being undefeated in his four career starts. After his loss in the Remsen (G2), the son of Gun Runner won the Risen Star (G2) and the Blue Grass with deep closing runs from far off the pace. The preference for more forwardly placed horses to win the Derby has been reversed by the victories by Mage and Rich Strike the last two years. Both Chad Brown and Tyler Gaffalione are seeking their first Derby wins. Win contender.

Catching Freedom, 8-1. Constitution – Brad Cox / Flavien Prat - 125, 1st Louisiana Derby (G2), 97 - 5: 3-0-1, $877,350. Catching Freedom is another late runner who found success on the Derby trail this year picking up victories in the Louisiana Derby and the Smarty Jones. Both Brad Cox and Flavien Prat will try for their second wins in the run for the roses. Win contender.

Forever Young, 8-1. Real Steel – Yoshito Yahagi / Ryusei Sakai - 100, 1st UAE Derby (G2), NA - 5: 5-0-0, $2,049,451. Forever Young prepped for the Derby by racing in the Middle East with wins in the Saudi Derby (G2) and then the UAE Derby (G1). He tracked the pace in Dubai and pulled away in the final 200 meters picking up the 100 points to earn a spot in the big race on the first Saturday in May. Forever Young will try to become the first horse from Japan to win the Derby. Win contender.

Just a Touch, 15-1. Justify – Brad Cox / Florent Geroux - 75, 2nd Blue Grass (G1), 96 - 3: 1-0-2, $281,700. Just a Touch looked like a winner at the stretch call of the Blue Grass, where he had taken the lead after pressing the pace but got caught by Sierra Leone. The son of Justify finished almost three lengths ahead of the show horse. Just a Touch is the second Brad Cox runner in the field. Florent Geroux and Cox got their first Derby victories with Mandaloun in 2021. Use underneath.

Stronghold, 20-1. Ghostzapper – Philip D’Amato / Antonio Fresu - 125, 1st Santa Anita Derby (G1), 89 - 6: 3-3-0, $827,200. Stronghold is the highest rated Derby contender from the West Coast and has two recent stalking victories in the Santa Anita Derby and the Sunland Derby. He never finished worse than second in his career, which began in August. Use underneath.

Resilience, 20-1. Into Mischief – Bill Mott / TBD - 110, 1st Wood Memorial (G2), 90 - 6: 2-1-1, $494,630. Resilience moved from a maiden victory to the Risen Star (G2) and finished fourth behind three horses who were winners on the Kentucky Derby trail, including Sierra Leone. He came back to stalk the pace in Wood Memorial and win by more than two lengths. Bill Mott won the Derby in 2019 when Maximum Security was disqualified for interference in the final turn. Use underneath.

Endlessly, 20-1. Oscar Performance – Michael McCarthy / Umberto Rispoli - 100, 1st Jeff Ruby (G3), 91 – 6: 5-0-0, $707,200. Endlessly earned his spot in the Derby with his victory in the Jeff Ruby on the synthetic track at Turfway Park. In addition, the son of Oscar Performance won on the Tapeta track at Golden Gate after beginning his career with three wins on turf. All of them were with come-from-behind trips. Connections of Endlessly are still undecided about whether to run on the dirt for the first time or prepare for the rich turf racing in the summer. Use underneath.

Dornoch, 20-1. Good Magic – Danny Gargan / Luis Saez - 75, 4th Blue Grass (G1), 88 - 6: 3-2-0, $552,275. Dornoch broke his maiden at Keeneland at the fall meeting in 2023 and then won his next two starts in graded stakes while racing on the lead. He beat Sierra Leone in the Remsen (G2) by a nose and won the Fountain of Youth (G2) in his 2024 debut. In the Blue Grass he did not get to set the pace, finished fourth and did not compete for the win. Toss.

Honor Marie, 20-1. Honor Code – Whit Beckman / Ben Curtis - 65, 2nd Louisiana Derby (G2), 96 - 5: 2-2-0, $526,175. Honor Marie was a winner on the Derby trail as a 2-year-old in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). In his first start of 2024 he finished fifth in the Risen Star, which turned out to be a key race on the Derby trail with the top four finishers all winning prep races. Honor Marie was fifth in there and came back to run his best race in the Louisiana Derby, where he rallied from the back of the field to finish second with his top speed figure. Use underneath.

Encino, 20-1. Nyquist – Brad Cox / TBD - 40, 1st Lexington (G3), 94 - 4: 3-1-0, $378,315. Encino made his first three starts at Turfway Park, getting his maiden win in his second try, and then won the Battaglia on the Derby trail with a closing move. He made his first start on the dirt in the Lexington a victory and picked up enough points to get into the field. If he runs in the Derby, he would be Cox’s third runner in the race. Use underneath.

Track Phantom, 25-1. Quality Road – Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario - 70, 4th Louisiana Derby (G2), 94 - 7: 3-2-1, $405,000. Track Phantom won the two early Derby prep races at Fair Grounds and then set the pace in the Risen Star and finished second. He again was on the lead in the Louisiana Derby, the longest Derby points race, and ended up fourth. Steve Asmussen will be trying to win the run for the roses for the first time. Track Phantom has the look of a horse who will get overlooked in the large Derby field. Use underneath.

Just Steel, 25-1. Justify – D. Wayne Lukas / Ramon Vasquez - 65, 2nd Arkansas Derby (G1), 95 - 11: 2-4-1, $724,545. Just Steel is the most experienced horse in the field, which should be no surprise with D. Wayne Lukas as the trainer. He began at Saratoga and raced seven times as a 2-year-old. This year he raced at Oaklawn and finished second in three of the Derby preps there with stalking trips. His best race was probably the Arkansas Derby, where he finished behind Muth with his top speed figure. Lukas has won the Kentucky Derby four times. Use underneath.

Domestic Product, 25-1. Practical Joke – Chad Brown / TBD - 60, 1st Tampa Bay Derby (G3), 87 - 5: 2-1-0, $314,200. Domestic Product is the other Chad Brown runner in the Derby, joining Sierra Leone. He last was seen in the winner’s circle after the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) in March, which he won after finishing second in the Holy Bull. Domestic Product won at Tampa even though his speed figure took a significant drop. Toss.

Catalytic, 30-1. Catalina Cruiser – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Julien Leparoux - 50, 2nd Florida Derby (G1), 90 – 3: 1-2-0, $216,825. Catalytic made all three starts in Florida, beginning with a maiden sprint victory at Gulfstream by more than three lengths at 7-2. He was second in an allowance at Tampa and then moved onto the qualifying trail in the Florida Derby where he was second the entire race and could not keep up with the runaway winner. Catalytic was well clear of the third-place horse and probably earned a speed figure that was inflated by the performance of Fierceness. Toss.

Mystic Dan, 30-1. Goldencents – Kenny McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr. - 46, 3rd Arkansas Derby (G1), 101 - 6: 2-1-1, $641,360. Mystic Dan got the third highest speed figure in the field, with the top two belonging to Fierceness. Mystic Dan got that big number on a muddy and sealed track when he won the Southwest. His races before and after the Arkansas Derby were on fast tracks, and he wasn’t particularly competitive in either of them. Toss.

West Saratoga, 40-1. Exaggerator – Larry Demeritte / Jesus Castanon - 67, 2nd Jeff Ruby (G3), 85 - 10: 2-5-1, $460,140. West Saratoga won the first 10 points on Derby trail when he won the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill. He picked up 57 more points with top three finishes in three other preps including a second in the Jeff Ruby. Toss.

T O Password, 40-1. Copano Rickey – Daisuke Takayanagi / K Sameshima - Japan, 1st Fukurya, NA - 2: 2-0-0, $163,339. T O Password earned the Derby spot for the horse from the qualifying races that were run in Japan. He won both of his starts, a maiden and a minor stakes race. He is outclassed by the other Japan horse. Toss.

Society Man, 50-1. Good Magic – Danny Gargan / TBD - 50, 2nd Wood Memorial (G1), 87 - 5: 1-1-1, $196,705. Society Man is the other Danny Gargan runner who surprisingly qualified after finishing second in the Wood Memorial at 106-1. Toss.

Deterministic, N/A. Liam’s Map – Christophe Clement / TBD - 50, 8th Wood Memorial (G2), 93 - 3: 2-0-0, $237,750. Deterministic was the .90-1 favorite in the Wood Memorial after an impressive win in the Gotham (G3). He came up empty in the later stages of the Wood, and trainer Christophe Clement has said that it is unlikely that he will run on the first Saturday in May although he has not been officially withdrawn yet. Unlikely to run.

Next four in the field (ordered by points and graded-stakes earnings):

Grand Mo the First, 40-1. Uncle Mo – Victor Barboza Jr. / Emisael Jaramillo - 40, 3rd Florida Derby (G1), 87 - 6: 2-0-4, $214,650. Grand Mo the First will be in the field when Deterministic is officially scratched.

Common Defense, 40-1. Karakontie – Kenny McPeek / TBD - 37, 5th Louisiana Derby (G2), 92 - 5: 1-2-0, $345,450.

Epic Ride, 30-1. Uncle Mo – John Ennis / Adam Beschizza - 35, 3rd Blue Grass (G1), 90 - 5: 2-2-1, $253,166.

Hades, 40-1. Awesome Slew – Joe Orseno / Paco Lopez - 30, 7th Lexington (G3), 90 - 5: 3-0-0, $256,650.

Summary: Whether you are looking to bet to win in the Kentucky Derby or you prefer to bet the exacta, trifecta or superfecta you have to limit the number of horses that you use from the field of 20. This early look at the Derby field classifies each horse as a win contender, to use underneath in the vertical exotics or to toss from all wagers.

This year, you will find four horses to consider as win contenders, eight to use underneath and eight to toss.