See Kentucky Derby 2024 early odds
With a little over three weeks to Kentucky Derby 2024, the field is getting clearer and we can start to see how the final odds will look. Based on what we know today here is a look at the projected Kentucky Derby odds, in other words, one person's prediction on how the horses would be bet if the race were run tomorrow.
First, it's important to keep in mind there are 24 horses listed here and the Kentucky Derby is a 20-horse race at maximum. There is also one more points prep yet to be run in the Lexington Stakes. With that let's jump in!
Who is favored and how low to go?
While Fierceness and Sierra Leone are clear to be co-favorites, there is some suspense to see who will be bet more strongly and by how much. Looking at the international site Odds Checker, most UK betting sites have Sierra Leone favored at 3-1 or 2.75-1, while Fierceness is at 3-1, 7-2 or 4-1.
I made Fierceness slightly favored because of his dominant win in the Florida Derby, he's the Breeders' Cup Juvenile champ and he's trained by Todd Pletcher. All of these things should play well with the Derby day betting crowd.
As far as odds, I made the two favorites 3-1 and 7-2 way clear of Forever Young at 8-1. The reason I didn't make the two favorites lower is due to the Rich Strike factor.
The Rich Strike factor
When Rich Strike shocked the Derby at 80-1 in 2022 it was national news and it impacted how people bet the other Triple Crown races that year: remember Fenwick inexplicably at 13-1? It also may have impacted Derby betting in 2023. Last year, the longest shots in an 18-horse Kentucky Derby field were Cyclone Mischief, 29-1, King Russell, 32-1, Sun Thunder, 33-1, Raise Cain, 33-1 and Jace's Road, 33-1. It's almost if the general public was willing to bet any horse in the race at 30-1.
Angel of Empire was the lukewarm favorite at 4-1 with Tapit Trice behind at 9-2. This year's co-favorites tower over the field more than those two did, but it still demonstrates the impact of the general public betting every horse to win.
A Japan-based standout
One intrigue will definitely be the odds of Forever Young, hailing from Japan. We've seen Japan-based runners fail in the Derby before, but Forever Young brings the strongest credentials to date. At odds of 8-1 that feels right but he could certainly go as low as 6-1 in a field where there aren't that many options to beat the top two.
Mage bro
One other thing to watch on Derby week will be the odds on Dornoch, a full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage. That's an incredibly fun stat, sure to be mentioned by the media countless times as it's very easy to understand. I don't think we should underestimate the amount the general public will bet on Dornoch simply because his brother won last year. For this reason, I lowered Dornoch to 12-1 but I think you could go even lower subscribing to that theory.
It's shaping up to be a fantastic Kentucky Derby, let's see how the field shakes out the next three weeks and HRN will be updating the odds every week!