Kentucky Derby 2024: 9 horses have done the math to clinch
Fierceness in the Grade 1 Florida Derby and Forever Young in the UAE Derby (G2) won their way Saturday into certain invitations for Kentucky Derby 2024. Arkansas Derby (G1) runner-up Just Steel also joined the list, making nine horses who have a place in the gate at Churchill Downs.
The mathematical cutline held steady at 65 points after the weekend’s major preps. Part of that was because Muth, whose trainer Bob Baffert is ineligible for the Derby, ate up 100 points by winning the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.
Fierceness wins Florida Derby, is Kentucky Derby favorite.
Realistically, with only three preps left worth 100-50-25-20-15 points, connections for the five horses just behind the top nine should have no risk making their Derby plans, too. Dornoch and Sierra Leone are among them, and they could take care of their arithmetic by finishing in the top five of the Blue Grass (G1) next weekend at Keeneland.
The draws this week for the Blue Grass, Wood Memorial (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1) will eliminate horses who are on the outside looking in. The only remaining prep after those will be the Lexington (G3), which is worth only 20-10-6-4-2 points.
There also is the formality of the one invitation that goes with the Europe road to the Derby, which is likely to lead nowhere. Coolmore-owned Navy Seal is the only listed candidate, and he is outside the fourth-place qualifying cut. Since he just finished fifth Saturday in the UAE Derby on the main road to Kentucky, he will not be in the picture for next weekend’s last chance in Europe. That is the Cardinal Stakes on Saturday at Chelmsford City, England.
With points and earnings reported Saturday by Churchill Downs, these are the current clinch scenarios for Kentucky Derby 2024:
| Kentucky Derby 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Already clinched | Rank | Pts. | **Earnings | Trainer |
| Fierceness | 1st | 136 | $1,646,100 | Todd Pletcher |
| Catching Freedom | 2nd | 125 | $802,000 | Brad Cox |
| Forever Young | 3rd | 100 | $1,769,919 | Yoshito Yahagi |
| Timberlake | 5th | 81 | $1,132,500 | Brad Cox |
| Track Phantom | 6th | 70 | $300,000 | Steve Asmussen |
| West Saratoga | 7th | 67 | $363,640 | Larry Demeritte |
| Just Steel | 8th | 65 | $628,295 | D. Wayne Lukas |
| Honor Marie | 9th | 65 | $448,455 | Whit Beckman |
| T O Password | 20th | Jpn | $161,743 | Daisuke Takayanagi |
| Not quite | Rank | Pts. | **Earnings | Trainer |
| Dornoch | 10th | 60 | $425,500 | Danny Gargan |
| Domestic Product | 11th | 60 | $260,500 | Chad Brown |
| Sierra Leone | 12th | 55 | $290,000 | Chad Brown |
| Catalytic | 13th | 50 | $186,000 | Saffie Joseph Jr. |
| Deterministic | 14th | 50 | $165,000 | Christophe Clément |
| Mystik Dan | 15th | 46 | $550,050 | Kenny McPeek |
| No More Time | 16th | 45 | $194,380 | José D’Angelo |
| Grand Mo the First | 17th | 40 | $164,250 | Víctor Barboza Jr. |
| Common Defense | 18th | 37 | $253,450 | Kenny McPeek |
| Hades | 19th | 30 | $189,800 | Joe Orseno |
| Need work or help | Rank | Pts. | **Earnings | Trainer |
| El Grande O | 21st | 30 | $151,000 | Linda Rice |
| Seize the Grey | 22nd | 27 | $100,663 | D. Wayne Lukas |
| Stronghold | 23rd | 25 | $292,800 | Phil D’Amato |
| Le Dom Bro | 24th | 25 | $131,000 | Eniel Cordero |
| Pandagate | 25th | 25 | $100,206 | Christophe Clément |
| Tuscan Gold | 26th | 25 | $100,000 | Chad Brown |
| Just a Touch | 27th | 25 | $60,000 | Brad Cox |
| Uncle Heavy | 28th | 20 | $137,500 | Butch Reid |
| Encino | 29th | 20 | $87,536 | Brad Cox |
| Liberal Arts | 30th | 19 | $220,325 | Robbie Medina |
| Mc Vay | 31st | 19 | $48,000 | John Shirreffs |
| Northern Flame | 32nd | 18 | $143,800 | Kenny McPeek |
| Informed Patriot | 33rd | 18 | $111,140 | Steve Asmussen |
| Lucky Jeremy | 34th | 16 | $119,200 | Bill Morey |
| Scatify | 35th | 16 | $42,000 | John Sadler |
| Mendelssohn Bay | 36th | 15 | $164,469 | Satish Seemar |
| Frankie’s Empire | * | 15 | $163,100 | Bo Yates |
| Triple Espresso | 37th | 15 | $63,000 | Todd Pletcher |
| Conquest Warrior | 38th | 15 | $46,500 | Shug McGaughey |
| Nash | 39th | 13 | $164,000 | Brad Cox |
| Agate Road | 40th | 10 | $214,750 | Todd Pletcher |
| Otto the Conqueror | 41st | 10 | $207,600 | Steve Asmussen |
| Alotaluck | 42nd | 10 | $105,360 | Ty Garrett |
| Epic Ride | 43rd | 10 | $104,565 | John Ennis |
| Dancing Groom | 44th | 10 | $88,902 | Antonio Sano |
| Woodcourt | * | 10 | $79,275 | Cipriano Contreras |
| Navy Seal | 45th | 10 | $42,750 | Aidan O’Brien |
| Real Macho | 46th | 10 | $30,000 | Rohan Crichton |
| Maximus Meridius | 47th | 10 | $18,000 | Butch Reid |
| Good Money | 48th | 10 | $17,500 | Chad Brown |
| Resilience | 49th | 10 | $16,000 | Bill Mott |
| Moonlight | 50th | 7 | $59,000 | Todd Pletcher |
| Expected to skip Derby | Rank | Pts. | **Earnings | Trainer |
| Endlessly | 4th | 100 | $658,000 | Michael McCarthy |
| *Not nominated for TC | ||||
| **Non-restricted stakes | ||||
| Jpn Japan berth |