Kentucky Derby 2023 trail: Guide to Saturday's 3 points preps

The Kentucky Derby 2023 trail winds Saturday through New York City, the Gulf Coast and the Northern California.

A trio of points-paying preps, the Withers Stakes (G3), Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) and El Camino Real Derby, are on Saturday’s schedule.

The Davis and Withers award points toward the Kentucky Derby starting gates on a 20-8-6-4-2 basis. The El Camino Real pays points on a 10-4-3-2-1 scale.

4:27 p.m. – $250,000 Withers Stakes (G3), 1 1/8 miles, Aqueduct, FS1

Freezing temperatures postponed the Withers Stakes one week from its original date last Saturday. The race was redrawn this week, with Arctic Arrogance (8-5) garnering morning-line favoritism.

Trainer Linda Rice adds blinkers Saturday for the Frosted colt Arctic Arrogance. He won Aqueduct’s Sleepy Hollow Stakes last October for New York-breds, then was second there in December’s Remsen Stakes (G2) and the Jerome Stakes on Jan. 7.

Chester and Mary Broman campaign their homebred Arctic Arrogance, who will have jockey Jose Lezcano aboard for the Withers.

Hit Show (9-5) ships in from trainer Brad Cox’s Oaklawn string to make his stakes debut. In his last start, he kicked clear for a 3 1/2-length score at the Arkansas track in a Dec. 17 allowance race.

Jungfrau (4-1) travels north from South Florida, where he broke his maiden on third asking New Year’s Eve at Gulfstream Park. Trainer Bill Mott looks to continue Derby trail momentum after running 1-2 in last Saturday's Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream with Rocket Can and Shadow Dragon.

General Banker (8-1) finished third in the Jerome for trainer James Ferraro.

Following the Withers on Aqueduct’s Kentucky Derby trail are the $300,000 Gotham Stakes (G3) on March 4 and the $750,000 Wood Memorial (G2) on April 8.

The Withers Stakes has not produced a Kentucky Derby victor since it was re-established as a winter prep in 2012. Revolutionary in 2013 won the Withers before finishing third in the Derby, the best result of any runner who prepped in this event.

Here is a look at the field for the 2023 Withers Stakes (trainers and jockeys in parentheses) with morning-line odds:

1. Arctic Arrogance (Linda Rice, Jose Lezcano), 8-5

2. Prove Right (James Chapman, Jose Antonio Gomez), 30-1

3. Jungfrau (Bill Mott, Dylan Davis), 4-1

4. Hit Show (Brad Cox, Manny Franco), 9-5

5. General Banker (James Ferraro, Eric Cancel), 8-1

6. Ninetyprcentmaddie (Butch Reid, Abner Adorno), 8-1

7. Andiamo a Firenze (Kelly Breen, Frankie Pennington), 12-1

TimeformUS pace projections show Andiamo a Firenze taking a narrow lead under jockey Frankie Pennington. Favorite Arctic Arrogance is expected to be close to a hot early pace.

5:18 p.m. – $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3), 1 1/16 miles, Tampa Bay, FanDuel TV

Dubyuhnell (9-5) has trainer Danny Gargan on the Kentucky Derby trail after winning the Remsen on Dec. 3. The Good Magic colt dueled that day with Arctic Arrogance, prevailing by a half-length.

West Paces Racing and Stonestreet Stables campaign Dubyuhnell, a $400,000 auction purchase September 2021 at Keeneland. Jockey Jose Ortiz travels a few hours northwest from his winter base at Gulfstream to ride the favorite.

Champions Dream (9-2) also owns a graded-stakes win at Aqueduct, his coming Nov. 6 in the Nashua Stakes (G3). Trained by Mark Casse, he was second Jan. 14 in the local Pasco Stakes.

Litigate (5-1) won on debut in November at Aqueduct, then was second against allowance foes Jan. 8 at Gulfstream. Cyclone Mischief, who finished 5 3/4 lengths ahead of Litigate that day, crossed seventh in the Holy Bull as a 6-5 favorite.

Prairie Hawk (6-1) has won back-to-back starts at Tampa for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., including in allowance company Jan. 13.

The Davis leads into this track’s other points-paying Kentucky Derby prep, the $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) on March 11.

No Kentucky Derby winner has used the Sam F. Davis Stakes as a prep race. 2006 Davis winner Bluegrass Cat was second on the first Saturday in May, three years before Musket Man finished third in both events.

Here is a look at the field for the 2023 Sam F. Davis Stakes (trainers and jockeys in parentheses) with morning-line odds:

1. Worthington (Mike Maker, Pablo Morales), 20-1

2. Prairie Hawk (Saffie Joseph Jr., Samy Camacho), 6-1

3. Classic Legacy (Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado), 12-1

4. Laver (Rusty Arnold, Jose Morelos), 15-1

5. Groveland (Eoin Harty, Daniel Centeno), 12-1

6. Classic Car Wash (Mark Casse, Emisael Jaramillo), 20-1

7. Dubyuhnell (Danny Gargan, Jose Ortiz), 9-5

8. Notah (John Terranova II, Antonio Gallardo), 30-1

9. Champions Dream (Mark Casse, Tyler Gaffalione), 9-2

10. Dreaming of Kona (Aldana Spieth, Scott Spieth), 12-1

11. Litigate (Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez), 5-1

12. Zydeceaux (Ramon Minguet, Samuel Marin), 20-1

TimeformUS pace projections have Dreaming of Kona showing early speed under jockey Scott Spieth and setting a quick pace. Favorite Dubyuhnell is projected to run among the first group chasing the leader.

7:54 p.m. – $100,000 El Camino Real Derby, 1 1/8 miles (all-weather track), Golden Gate, FanDuel TV

Passarando (2-1) enters Golden Gate’s lone Kentucky Derby prep as the morning-line favorite, two starts after winning the Gold Rush Stakes there in December. The Tamarando gelding faced local state-breds Jan. 7 in Santa Anita’s California Cup Derby, finishing third.

Steven Specht trains Passarando, a homebred for owners Larry and Marianne Williams. Local jockey Frank Alvarado will get a leg up.

Chase the Chaos (3-1) was second to Passarando in the Gold Rush, then won a local allowance race by 7 1/2 lengths Dec. 30 for trainer Ed Moger Jr.

Gilmore (4-1), trained by Bob Baffert, runs for the first time since breaking his maiden on second asking Dec. 10 at Los Alamitos. He and stablemate Nullarbor (6-1) are ineligible for Kentucky Derby points due to Baffert’s two-year Churchill Downs suspension.

Harcyn (5-1) is off to a 2-for-2 start, with his last win coming locally against allowance runners Jan. 16. Steve Sherman, son of Kentucky Derby-winning conditioner Art Sherman, trains Harcyn.

Charismatic in 1999 is the only horse to participate in this event before winning the Kentucky Derby. He finished second in that year’s El Camino Real for trainer D. Wayne Lukas.

No El Camino Real Derby starter since 2014 has raced in the Kentucky Derby. Dance With Fate was second that year at Golden Gate and then sixth at Churchill.

Golden Gate has a deal with fellow 1/ST racing property Pimlico where the El Camino Real Derby winner receives a berth in the Preakness Stakes if Triple Crown-nominated. Rombauer swept both events in 2021.

Here is a look at the field for the 2023 El Camino Real Derby (trainers and jockeys in parentheses) with morning-line odds:

1. Gilmore (Bob Baffert, Jose Valdivia Jr.), 4-1

2. Chase the Chaos (Ed Moger Jr., Armando Ayuso), 3-1

3. Happy Does (Felix Rondan, Santos Rivera), 10-1

4. Passarando (Steven Specht, Frank Alvarado), 2-1

5. Harcyn (Steve Sherman, William Antongeorgi III), 5-1

6. In Honor of Autism (Jonathan Wong, Evin Roman), 12-1

7. Sea Dog (O.J. Jauregui, Francisco Monroy), 20-1

8. Nullarbor (Bob Baffert, Assael Espinoza), 6-1

TimeformUS pace projections show Nullarbor making the lead under jockey Assael Espinoza and setting a fast pace, which could benefit favorite Passarando.

Kentucky Derby links

Reinier Macatangay shares his Withers Stakes, Sam F. Davis Stakes and El Camino Real Derby picks. Macatangay also identifies El Camino Real starters who could appear in the Preakness and writes about Rocket Can’s Holy Bull Stakes (G3) win indirectly boosted fellow Derby hopeful Instant Coffee.

Two of Saturday’s Kentucky Derby preps have been kind to closers. One has rewarded early speed.

Ed DeRosa asks if Dubyuhnell can break the Remsen Stakes curse Saturday in the Davis. DeRosa also offers Withers Stakes fair odds.

Matt Shifman analyzes the 12 horses who will contest the Davis, rating Champions Dream for trainer Mark Casse and jockey Tyler Gaffalione as his top choice. He also runs through the Withers field, landing on Hit Show for trainer Brad Cox and jockey Manny Franco.

This week on the Ron Flatter Racing Pod, breeder-owner Bruce Lunsford talks about Davis starter Classic Legacy. Lunsford also discusses the immediate past and future for Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) hero Art Collector.

This weekend's Super Screener takes a look at all three Derby prep races as well as four other stakes, including a pair that make up an all-stakes Pick 3 at Tampa Bay Downs.

The Withers and Sam F. Davis are both part of Saturday’s Cross Country Pick 5.

HorseCenter hosts Matt Shifman and Brian Zipse preview the Sam F. Davis and also reveal their current top 12 rankings for the 2023 Kentucky Oaks (G1).

Jockey Junior Alvarado, who will pilot Classic Legacy on Saturday in the Davis, sat down for a five-question FaceTime with Andrew Capone.

Led by 2-year-old champion and three-time Grade 1 winner Forte, 369 3-year-old Thoroughbreds were made eligible to compete in this year’s Triple Crown series during the early nomination phase. Trainer Todd Pletcher talks Forte and some of his other top 3-year-olds in a Barn Tour.

Newgate, who narrowly won last Saturday’s Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita for trainer Bob Baffert, is off the Triple Crown trail because of what an owner described as a “minor” injury to a hind leg. In other Baffert news, attorney Clark Brewster filed a motion Friday that the judge who heard the trainer’s case against Churchill Downs should recuse herself because of her husband’s lobbying work.

Kentucky Derby points top 10

1. Forte, 40

2. Instant Coffee, 32

3. Rocket Can, 20

4. Curly Jack, 17

5. Blazing Sevens, 16

6. Jace’s Road, 15

7. Red Route One, 13

8. Victory Formation, 10

9. Dubyuhnell, 10

10. Practical Move, 10

Kentucky Oaks trail

The champion 2-year-old filly of 2022, Wonder Wheel, makes her 3-year-old debut Saturday in a race that awards points toward the Kentucky Oaks (G1) starting gate on a 20-8-6-4-2 basis.

4:48 p.m. – $150,000 Suncoast Stakes, one mile and 40 yards, Tampa Bay, FanDuel TV

Wonder Wheel (1-1) earned an Eclipse Award after back-to-back Keeneland wins in October’s Alcibiades Stakes (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies on Nov. 4. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione will be aboard the Into Mischief filly, who collected $1.55 million as a 2-year-old, for trainer Mark Casse. Todd Pletcher trains Julia Shining (5-2), whose 2-for-2 record includes a Demoiselle Stakes (G2) triumph Dec. 3 at Aqueduct. Casse’s second entry in this Oaks prep is Ticker Tape Home (8-1), runner-up Nov. 5 in the Display Stakes over Woodbine’s synthetic surface.

Kentucky Oaks points top 10

1. Wonder Wheel, 40

2. The Alys Look, 24

3. Red Carpet Ready, 20

4. Wet Paint, 20

5. Occult, 20

6. Leave No Trace, 15

7. Pretty Mischievous, 13

8. Chop Chop, 12

9. Ice Dancing, 12

10. Pride of the Nile, 12

Other Saturday stakes

Here is a look at other stakes races of note on Saturday’s schedule. All post times are EST.

1:17 p.m. – $100,000 Jimmy Winkfield Stakes, 3-year-olds, six furlongs, Aqueduct, FS2

Drew’s Gold (2-1) is 2-for-2 and wheels back two weeks after beating allowance competition Jan. 28 at Laurel Park. Jockey Jose Antonio Gomez will climb aboard the Violence colt for trainer James Chapman. Todd Pletcher trains Clubhouse (5-2), who finally found the winner’s circle on sixth asking locally Jan. 14. Joey Freshwater (3-1) has won his last two starts, including a local starter optional claiming race New Year’s Day, and makes a stakes bow for trainer Linda Rice.

5:06 p.m. – $100,000 Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint Stakes (G3), 4-and-up, five furlongs (turf), Gulfstream Park, FanDuel TV

Belgrano (2-1) has made 45 career starts and aims to make the grade in the first race of his 9-year-old season for trainer Frank Russo. Jockey Paco Lopez will get a leg up on the War Front gelding, victor of the local Janus Stakes on Christmas Eve. Brian Lynch trains Carotari (3-1), a Gulfstream, Ellis Park and Pimlico stakes winner who was fourth in the Janus. Yes I Am Free (6-1) won the 2022 Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint and enters off a local allowance win Jan. 19 for trainer Laura Cazares.

5:42 p.m. – $150,000 Dixie Belle Stakes, 3-year-old fillies, six furlongs, Oaklawn, FanDuel TV

Key of Life (7-5), a Keeneland stakes winner, makes her sophomore bow in her first start since finishing third Nov. 26 in Churchill Downs’ Fern Creek Stakes. Jockey Flavien Prat rides the Mo Town filly for trainer Brad Cox. John Sadler trains Stone Silent (3-1), who won Santa Anita’s Debutante Stakes on June 18 in the first and only start of her career. Twirled (7-2) was runner-up in the Fern Creek, then won a local allowance race going 5 1/2 furlongs New Year’s Eve for trainer Steve Asmussen.

7:38 p.m. – $100,000 Sweet Life Stakes, 3-year-old fillies, about 6 1/2 furlongs (turf), Santa Anita, FanDuel TV

Manhattan Jungle (5-2), a stakes winner in France, runs for her first domestic win in her third U.S. start. Trainer Michael McCarthy and jockey Frankie Dettori team up with the Bungle Inthejungle filly, runner-up in the local Blue Norther Stakes on Dec. 30. Leonard Powell trains Havana Angel (5-1), who makes her first start since finishing last of seven Nov. 12 at Golden Gate in the Golden Nugget Stakes. Fun Money (6-1) switches surfaces after finishing second when sprinting on the dirt Jan. 29 at Santa Anita.