Kentucky Derby 2023 trail: Guide to Arkansas, Florida derbies

The early Kentucky Derby 2023 favorite aims to make a final statement Saturday on the road to Churchill Downs in one of the day’s two major preps.

Reigning juvenile champion Forte is the one to beat in the $1 million Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park. Saturday’s other prep, the $1.25 million Arkansas Derby (G1), has more of a wide-open look to it at Oaklawn.

Both the Arkansas and Florida derbies award Kentucky Derby points to their top five finishers on a 100-40-30-20-10 scale. Those payouts clinch the winners their spots in the Churchill starting gates.

Here is a look at both races for 3-year-olds. Visit Horse Racing Nation’s free past performances page for more information on Saturday’s Kentucky Derby preps and Kentucky Oaks (G1) preps.

6:40 p.m. EDT, $1 million Florida Derby (G1), 1 1/8 miles, Gulfstream Park, CNBC and FanDuel TV

Forte (4-5) has proven so far to be the one to beat not only in this race but across his class. He has won four straight graded stakes, three of which were in Grade 1 flight, and stood Saturday morning as the 5-2 favorite in the sixth pool of the pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

In Forte’s last start, he backed up 1-2 favoritism March 4 by drawing off for a 4 1/2-length win at Gulfstream Park in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). He will have to overcome a draw Saturday that saw him assigned the no. 11 post.

Forte’s trainer Todd Pletcher, jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. and co-owner St. Elias Stable teamed up to win the 2021 Florida Derby with Known Agenda. Repole Stable, another of Pletcher’s top owners, also campaigns this Violence colt.

Fort Bragg (5-1) ships east for trainer Tim Yakteen after scratching out of Sunday’s Sunland Park Derby (G3). In his only start this season, he was fifth March 4 at Santa Anita in the San Felipe Stakes (G2).

Dubyuhnell (6-1) also was off the board in his only start this season, finishing eighth Feb. 11 at Tampa Bay in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3). He won Aqueduct’s Remsen Stakes (G2) in December.

Cyclone Mischief (8-1) was third in the Fountain of Youth for trainer Dale Romans, 5 3/4 lengths back of winner Forte.

The Florida Derby has produced 24 Kentucky Derby victors, most of any prep race. In the last 10 years Always Dreaming (2017), Nyquist (2016) and Orb (2013) pulled off the Florida Derby-Kentucky Derby double.

Four Florida Derby starters made the Kentucky Derby field last May. Of those, fourth-place runner Simplification posted the best finish last year at Churchill.

Here is a look at the field for the 2023 Florida Derby (trainers and jockeys in parentheses) with morning-line odds:

  1. Jungfrau (Bill Mott, Paco Lopez), 20-1

  2. West Coast Cowboy (Saffie Joseph Jr., Sonny Leon), 20-1

  3. Shaq Diesel (Renaldo Richards, Miguel Angel Vasquez), 30-1

  4. Mage (Gustavo Delgado, Luis Saez), 10-1

  5. Mr. Peeks (Saffie Joseph Jr., Edwin Gonzalez), 30-1

  6. Nautical Star (Saffie Joseph Jr., Leonel Reyes), 30-1

  7. Il Miracolo (Antonio Sano, Jesus Rios), 30-1

  8. Mr. Ripple (Saffie Joseph Jr., Edgard Zayas), 30-1

  9. Cyclone Mischief (Dale Romans, Javier Castellano), 8-1

10. Fort Bragg (Tim Yakteen, Joel Rosario), 5-1

11. Forte (Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr.), 4-5

12. Dubyuhnell (Danny Gargan, Jose Ortiz), 6-1

TimeformUS pace projections show long shot Mr. Peeks under jockey Edwin Gonzalez going out to the early lead and setting a fast pace. Favorite Forte is projected to settle in toward the back half of the field.

7:24 p.m. EDT, $1.25 million Arkansas Derby (G1), 1 1/8 miles, Oaklawn, FanDuel TV and FS2

Reincarnate (5-2), like his stablemate Fort Bragg, is a former Bob Baffert trainee who ships east Saturday to run in a major Kentucky Derby prep for Yakteen’s barn.

When racing for Baffert, Reincarnate upset Santa Anita’s Sham Stakes (G3) at 17-1 odds in January. He then went to Oaklawn for his new trainer and finished third Feb. 25 in the Rebel Stakes (G2) behind Confidence Game and Red Route One.

SF Racing heads a large ownership group that campaigns Reincarnate, a Good Magic colt. Jockey John Velazquez has the mount on the morning-line favorite.

Red Route One (3-1) finished 1 1/2 lengths clear of Reincarnate in the Rebel for trainer Steve Asmussen. His only win in seven career starts came over Kentucky Downs’s turf last September.

Rocket Can (4-1) ships to Arkansas for trainer Bill Mott rather than continuing along Gulfstream Park’s Kentucky Derby trail. He won the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) there in February before finishing best of the rest behind Forte in the Fountain of Youth.

Angel of Empire (9-2) likely has enough points to make the Kentucky Derby field off his Risen Star Stakes (G2) win Feb. 18 for trainer Brad Cox. He went off at 14-1 that evening and bested a field that included recent Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) victor Two Phil’s.

Seven Arkansas Derby graduates won the Kentucky Derby. Three swept both races: American Pharoah (2015), Smarty Jones (2004) and Sunny’s Halo (1983).

2022 Arkansas Derby winner Cyberknife was 18th in the Kentucky Derby but rebounded in the summer to win the Haskell Stakes (G1).

Here is a look at the field for the 2023 Arkansas Derby (trainers and jockeys in parentheses) with morning-line odds:

  1. Bourbon Bash (D. Wayne Lukas, Reylu Gutierrez), 15-1

  2. Interlock Empire (Kenny McPeek, David Cabrera), 20-1

  3. Harlocap (Steve Asmussen, Ricardo Santana Jr.), 15-1

  4. Two Eagles River (Chris Hartman, Nik Juarez), 10-1

  5. Airtime (Robertino Diodoro, Cristian Torres), 15-1

  6. Angel of Empire (Brad Cox, Flavien Prat), 9-2

  7. Rocket Can (Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado), 4-1

  8. Reincarnate (Tim Yakteen, John Velazquez), 5-2

  9. King Russell (Ron Moquett, Rafael Bejarano), 30-1

10. Red Route One (Steve Asmussen, Tyler Gaffalione), 3-1

11. Kolomio, SCR

TimeformUS pace projections show Harlocap making the early lead under jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. and showing the way through a rapid pace. Favorite Reincarnate is projected to run third through the early going.

Kentucky Derby trail links

Reinier Macatangay examines Arkansas Derby speed horses and concludes that the race may set up well for stalkers and mid-pack types. Macatangay also writes that long shot Mr. Peeks is more than a rabbit in the Florida Derby. Finally, Macatangay makes his Arkansas Derby and Florida Derby picks.

See Ed DeRosa’s Arkansas Derby fair odds and Florida Derby fair odds. DeRosa has Rocket Can as the favorite at Oaklawn based on his Kentucky Derby trail efforts at Gulfstream Park. In Florida, DeRosa says bettors will be forced to look beyond Forte for win-pool value.

DeRosa also calculates Kentucky Derby fair odds prior to the Arkansas and Florida derbies. His biggest mover in this edition of the odds is emphatic Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) victor Two Phil’s.

Matt Shifman offers Florida Derby odds and analysis, finding runners to use underneath heavy favorite Forte. Shifman also gives Arkansas Derby odds and analysis, landing on a Bill Mott-trained runner as his top choice.

Laurie Ross and Ashley Tamulonis go head to head handicapping the Florida Derby, with both landing on a Forte-Mage exacta. The two also look at the Arkansas Derby, with both going a different direction atop their tickets.

“His mind is for sure changing,” champion jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. says of Forte. “He’s doing things a little better. He doesn’t hesitate. He’s not like a 2-year-old anymore. He’s figured out what he needs to do, which makes it good for me.”

Fort Bragg was going to run Sunday in the Sunland Park Derby (G3) before trainer Tim Yakteen rerouted the colt to Gulfstream, taking advantage of another week between races.

Mage’s connections did not expect a full 12-horse Florida Derby field. He aims to build off a fourth-place effort last out in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2).

Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. has four long shots entered in Saturday’s Florida Derby field. He talked about that quartet and other of his runners in a Barn Tour.

Like showing up late after forgetting to turn clocks forward, the final pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager has the potential to play gotcha with pari-mutuel bettors nationwide. Two 20-1 shots offer value for the wager.

This week on HorseCenter, hosts Shifman and Brian Zipse make Arkansas Derby and Florida Derby picks. The Ron Flatter Racing Pod features Kentucky Derby trail analysis from Fox Sports racing analyst and former MLB player Paul Lo Duca.

There's never been a better time to be a Super Screener subscriber. Last week's report included eight top-pick winners with three of those also getting the top value pick designation: Ushba Tersoro ($28.30) in the Dubai World Cup (G1), Derma Sotogake ($14.50) in the UAE Derby (G2) and Kingsbarns ($11.20) in the Louisiana Derby (G2).

The final leg of Europe’s seven-race Kentucky Derby trail series is Saturday’s Cardinal Conditions Stakes over the synthetic track at Chelmsford City, which awards qualifying points on a 30-12-9-6-3 basis to the top five finishers. Eleven are entered, including a pair of Triple Crown nominees with possible Derby aspirations.

Hit Show, winner of the Withers (G3), is expected to return to Aqueduct for next Saturday’s Wood Memorial (G2), where the Brad Cox trainee likely will be the favorite. Arctic Arrogance, who has finished second three times on Aqueduct’s Derby trail, is among the likely challengers.

Japanese import Mandarin Hero has arrived in California, where he will contest next Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby (G1) under Japan native Kazushi Kimura.

Empirestrikesfast was added to the list of late Triple Crown nominations after a clerical error was discovered. The connections paid the $6,000 before Monday’s deadline, but the colt’s name was omitted from the list of 12 others published on Tuesday.

Prospective Kentucky Derby field

The top 18 points earners nominated for the Kentucky Derby will earn a spot in the starting gates for the Grade 1, $3 million race May 6. One spot is reserved for the top points earners on the European and Japanese Derby trails. Here is a look at who would make up the current field.

  1. Two Phil’s, 123

  2. Derma Sotogake, 100

  3. Kingsbarns, 100

  4. Forte, 90

  5. Practical Move, 60

  6. Confidence Game, 57

  7. Angel of Empire, 54

  8. Raise Cain, 54

  9. Wild On Ice, 50

10. Tapit Trice, 50

11. Jace’s Road, 45

12. Major Dude, 40

13. Rocket Can, 40

14. Disarm, 40

15. Sun Thunder, 34

16. Red Route One, 33

17. Instant Coffee, 32

18. Funtastic Again, 30

Europe. Cairo

Japan. Continuar

Kentucky Oaks trail

The Arkansas Derby and Florida Derby cards both feature major prep races toward the Grade 1, $1.25 million Kentucky Oaks. Here is a look at top contenders in the two races for 3-year-old fillies that award Oaks points on a 100-40-30-20-10 scale.

5:15 p.m. – $250,000 Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), 1 1/16 miles, Gulfstream Park, FanDuel TV

Miracle (5-2) has finished second in three straight stakes races for trainer Todd Pletcher, including in Fair Grounds’s Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2) on Feb. 18. The Mendelssohn filly aims to make the grade Saturday under jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. Pletcher also trains Atomically (7-2), a local Florida-bred stakes winner who was third Feb. 4 in the Forward Gal Stakes (G3). Dorth Vader (4-1) put herself in good position to make the Kentucky Oaks field March 4 by winning Gulfstream’s Davona Dale Stakes (G2) for trainer Michael Yates.

6:35 p.m. – $600,000 Fantasy Stakes (G3), 1 1/16 miles, Oaklawn, FanDuel TV and FS2

Wet Paint (8-5) is 2-for-2 on Oaklawn’s road to the Kentucky Oaks, following a Martha Washington Stakes win in January by winning the Honeybee Stakes (G3) on Feb. 25. Trainer Brad Cox and jockey Flavien Prat team up with the Blame filly. Matt Shirer trains She’s Lookin Lucky (5-2), who steps up in class off a runner-up effort March 5 in a local allowance race. Royal Spa (4-1) scored at the allowance level March 2 at Oaklawn for trainer Rodolphe Brisset.

Related: Shirer could get 1st graded win with She's Lookin Lucky in Fantasy

Prospective Kentucky Oaks field

  1. Pretty Mischievous, 103

  2. Southlawn, 100

  3. Wet Paint, 70

  4. Botanical, 70

  5. The Alys Look, 54

  6. Flying Connection, 50

  7. Dorth Vader, 50

  8. Mimi Kakushi, 50

  9. Shidabhuti, 50

10. Wonder Wheel, 48

11. Hoosier Philly, 45

12. Red Carpet Ready, 35

13. And Tell Me Nolies, 30

14. Gambling Girl, 21

Other Saturday stakes

Here is a look at other graded stakes taking place Saturday across the U.S. Races may be seen on FanDuel TV.

1:26 p.m. EDT, $200,000 Pan American Stakes (G2), 4-and-up, 1 1/2 miles (turf), Gulfstream Park

Master Piece (7-5), winner of Del Mar’s Eddie Read Stakes (G2) last July for trainer Michael McCarthy, looks for his first win since moving to trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.’s barn. Jockey Jose Ortiz will ride the 7-year-old Mastercraftsman ridgling, third-place finisher March 4 in Gulfstream’s Mac Diarmada Stakes (G2). Mike Maker trains Wicked Fast (4-1), fifth-place finisher in the Mac Diarmada. Another Maker entry, Bay Street Money (9-2), finished fourth Feb. 18 in the Fair Grounds Stakes Presented by Horse Racing Nation (G3).

2:26 p.m. EDT, $150,000 Ghostzapper Stakes (G3), 4-and-up, 1 1/16 miles, Gulfstream Park

First Captain (9-5), twice a Grade 3 winner for trainer Shug McGaughey, makes his first start since a fifth-place effort Oct. 29 at Keeneland in the Fayette Stakes (G2). Jockey Luis Saez will be up on the 5-year-old son of Curlin. Antonio Sano trains Simplification (5-2), the 2022 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) victor who was third March 4 in the Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes (G2). O’Connor (3-1), a Group 1 winner in Chile, settled for 11th on Jan. 28 in the local Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (G1) for Joseph.

2:56 p.m. EDT, $150,000 Orchid Stakes (G3), 4-and-up fillies and mares, 1 1/2 miles (turf), Gulfstream Park

Amazing Grace (5-2), a Group 2 winner in Germany, makes her North American bow Saturday for trainer Christophe Clement. Jockey Joel Rosario gets the call on the 5-year-old Protectionist mare, whose last start was a third-place showing Sept. 25 in a Group 1 race at Koln. McGaughey trains Personal Best (3-1), a neck winner of the La Prevoyante Stakes (G3) on Gulfstream’s Pegasus card. Transient (7-2), a Joseph entry, followed a La Prevoyante runner-up effort with a third-place finish March 4 in the local The Very One Stakes (G3).

3:32 p.m. EDT, $400,000 Oaklawn Mile Stakes (G3), 4-and-up, one mile, Oaklawn

Hopper (7-5) sheds a quarter-mile of distance for trainer Bob Baffert after flattening from second to fourth March 4 in the 1 1/4-mile Santa Anita Handicap (G1). Jockey John Velazquez rides the 4-year-old Declaration of War colt, a Grade 3 winner. Kenny McPeek trains Smile Happy (9-5), a Grade 2 victor whose first start since the 2022 Kentucky Derby was a local allowance victory March 16. Caddo River (4-1) also exits an Oaklawn allowance score, his coming Feb. 25 for trainer D. Wayne Lukas.

7:07 p.m. EDT, $200,000 Royal Heroine Stakes (G2), 4-and-up fillies and mares, one mile (turf), Santa Anita, FanDuel TV

Closing Remarks (2-1) has made five straight starts in graded flight, never finishing worse than fourth, and now aims for a first graded score Saturday for trainer Carla Gaines. Jockey Joe Bravo was aboard the 5-year-old Vronsky mare for a third-place finish March 4 in the local Buena Vista Stakes (G2) and retains the mount. Phil D’Amato trains School Dance (3-1), fourth-place runner in the Buena Vista. Seisai (3-1), a stakes winner in Ireland, makes her U.S. debut for trainer John Sadler.