Kentucky Derby 2023 scouting report: West division

Since the first edition of the Kentucky Derby 2023 Scouting Report for West division tracks was published last month, nine horses were added. Some of the additions came from the five points races that were run in the West.

Practical Move was the upset winner of the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) over three horses from the Bob Baffert barn. Wildatlanticstorm won the Springboard Mile at Remington Park but did not receive the 10 Derby qualifying points because he ran with Lasix. Baffert won the Sham (G3) with Reincarnate, and Brad Cox trained the other two winners when Jace’s Road won the Gun Runner at Fair Grounds and Victory Formation stayed unbeaten in the Smarty Jones.

Horses trained by Bob Baffert are included in this Derby scouting report, although currently they are ineligible to earn Derby qualifying points, be part of the Kentucky Derby Future Wagers as individual betting interests or run in the Derby itself because of his suspension by Churchill Downs. These horses would have to be transferred to another trainer to be able to earn points and compete in Kentucky Derby.

The following lists shows each horse with his odds at Caesars Sportsbook and Circa Sports in Nevada, sire, trainer, owner and Derby qualifying points.

The leader

Cave Rock (Caesars 12-1, Circa 35-1, Arrogate, Bob Baffert; Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman). Cave Rock was named one of the finalists for the Eclipse Award for the 2-year-old male division based on his two Grade 1 victories and a second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) behind the East division leader, Forte. Cave Rock does not have an official workout since his last race on Nov. 4 in the world championships.

First tier

These contenders are stakes winners and/or have earned Derby qualifying points. They are listed alphabetically.

Confidence Game (Caesars 85-1, Circa 150-1, Candy Ride, Keith Desormeaux, Don’t Tell My Wife Stables, 1 Derby point). With 1 point from a fifth-place finish in the Iroquois (G3), Confidence Game was a front-end winner of a two-turn allowance at Churchill last month. Since that allowance victory, he had four published works at Fair Grounds.

Corona Bolt (Caesars 90-1, Circa 85-1 Bolt d’Oro, Brad Cox, Stonestreet Stables). Corona Bolt joined this report after he stayed unbeaten with a victory by almost seven lengths in his second start in the six-furlong Sugar Bowl at Fair Grounds. Cox said the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn Park on Jan. 28 is possible for his first appearance in a Derby points race.

Curly Jack (Caesars 100-1, Circa 60-1, Good Magic, Tom Amoss, Michael McLoughlin, 17 Derby points). Curly Jack is still in second position in the Derby standings with 17 points that were earned from a win in the Iroquois  at Churchill Downs, a second in the recent Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and a fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Curly Jack has not had an official breeze since the Kentucky Jockey Club at the end of November.

Gulfport (Caesars 100-1, Circa 125-1, Uncle Mo, Steve Asmussen, William and Corinne Helligbrodt, 3 Derby points). Gulfport has five top-three finishes in a campaign that began with two open-length victories at Churchill and most recently showed a third in the Champagne (G1) during the Belmont at the Big A meeting. He just posted his first four-furlong workout since the Champagne.

Havnameltdown (Caesars 35-1, Circa 60-1, Uncaptured, Bob Baffert; Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman). Havnameltdown’s only loss in four starts was a second in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) behind Cave Rock. Since then he won the Bob Hope (G3) and had five breezes at Santa Anita for Baffert after that race.

Honed (Caesars 100-1, Circa 175-1, Sharp Azteca, Ken McPeek; Three Chimney Farm and Magdalena Racing, 4 Derby Points). Honed has not had an official workout since his last appearance, a sixth-place finish in the Street Sense Stakes (G3).

Instant Coffee (Caesars 65-1, Circa 70-1, Bolt d’Oro, Brad Cox, Gold Square, 12 Derby points). Instant Coffee picked up 10 more Derby points when he rallied from behind to win the Kentucky Jockey Club. Since, he had four timed workouts stretching out from three to five furlongs at Fair Grounds.

Jace’s Road (Caesars 90-1, Circa 70-1, Quality Road, Brad Cox, West Point Thoroughbreds and Albaugh Family Stables, 13 Derby points). Jace’s Road joined the West report after a front-end victory in the Gun Runner by more than five lengths. He resumed serious training a few days ago with a four-furlong breeze at Fair Grounds.

Loggins (Caesars 18-1, Circa 30-1, Ghostzapper, Brad Cox, Spendthrift Farm and Steve Landers Racing, 4 Derby points). Loggins was second by a neck behind Forte in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) after setting the early pace. He has not returned to training since the Futurity in early October.

Mo Strike (Caesars 100-1, Circa 150-1, Uncle Mo, Brad Cox, Nasser Bin Omairah). Mo Strike won his first two races, getting an early start to his career in a Churchill maiden and then the Sanford (G3) at Saratoga. His most recent start produced a fourth in the Hopeful (G1). It has been four months since his last start, and he does not have a recorded workout.

Practical Move - (Caesars 90-1, Circa 60-1, Practical Joke, Tim Yakteen; Pierre Amestoy Jr., Leslie Amestoy and Roger Beasley, 10 Derby points). Practical Move was the 10-1 upset winner of the Los Al Futurity over a trio of Bob Baffert runners.

Red Route One (Caesars 135-1, Circa 125-1, Gun Runner, Steve Asmussen, Winchell Thoroughbreds, 5 Derby points). Red Route One had two finishes on the Derby trail that earned him points. He was third in the Breeders’ Futurity and fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Asmussen sent him back to the New Orleans track for three timed breezes since the Futurity at the end of November.

Reincarnate (Caesars 50-1, Circa 75-1, Good Magic, Bob Baffert; SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables and partners). Reincarnate was the long-shot winner of the Sham (G3), beating two of his stablemates from the Baffert barn. In what turned out to be basically a front-end victory, he prevailed in a stretch duel to get his second career win.

Two Phil’s (Caesars 100-1, Circa 200-1, Hard Spun, Larry Rivelli, Patricia’s Hope and Phillip Sagan). Since his most recent victory in the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill, Two Phil’s had five workouts at his Hawthorne Park home base.

Verifying (Caesars 125-1, Circa 155-1, Justify, Brad Cox; Poulin, Westerberg, and Magnier, 4 Derby points). Verifying ran second in the Champagne and went on to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, where he finished sixth after a troubled start. He is entered in a mile allowance race at Oaklawn Park on Saturday.

Victory Formation (Caesars 65-1, Circa 48-1, Tapwrit, Brad Cox; Spendthrift Farm and Frank Fletcher Racing, 10 Derby points). Victory Formation maintained a 3-for-3 record after winning the recent Smarty Jones and 10 Derby points. Cox said the Feb. 25 Rebel Stakes (G2) is possible for his next start.

Wildatlanticstorm (Caesars 100-1, Circa 135-1, Stormy Atlantic, H. Ray Ashford Jr., Jim Jorgensen). This Iowa-bred won the Springboard Mile on the heels of a victory in the Clever Trevor at Remington Park. He used a stalking trip to hold off a determined run by the odds-on favorite. But Wildatlanticstorm ran with Lasix, so he did not receive the 10 Derby qualifying points. He had a recent workout at Sam Houston going four furlongs.

Second tier

These horses have a noteworthy performance beyond their maiden victory but have not won a Derby prep. They are listed alphabetically.

Arabian Lion (Caesars 15-1, Circa 50-1, Justify, Bob Baffert, Zedan Racing Stables). Arabian Lion was a disappointing fifth and last in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) as the 2-5 favorite after pressing the pace and fading. He had his first timed workout since that race a few days ago.

Bromley (Caesars 150-1, Circa 250-1, Mastery, Paulo Lobo, OXO Equine). Bromley returned from his debut maiden victory to win an allowance race at Turfway Park going six furlongs as the even-money favorite.

Carmel Road (Caesars 150-1, Circa 225-1, Quality Road, Bob Baffert; SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables and partners). Carmel Road was the best of the three Baffert runners when he was second Los Al Futurity. He has not returned to the worktab since becoming graded-stakes placed.

Echo Again (Caesars 35-1, Circa 40-1, Gun Runner, Steve Asmussen, Winchell Thoroughbreds). Echo Again was the second choice in the Springboard Mile, where he set the pace and faded to third coming into the stretch. He is back in training with two workouts in 2023 at Fair Grounds.

Fort Bragg (Caesars 125-1, Circa 150-1, Tapit, Bob Baffert; SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables and partners). Fort Bragg did not have the best of trips in the Los Al Futurity. He had to check early, ended up in the back, raced wide the rest of the way and eventually finished third. He one workout since, on Dec. 27.

Gandolfini (Caesars 150-1, Circa 200-1, Justify, Bob Baffert; SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables and partners). Gandolfini returned to training shortly after his fourth-place finish in the American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita but he has not recorded a breeze since Dec. 9.

Giant Mischief (Caesars 30-1, Circa 50-1, Into Mischief, Brad Cox, Spendthrift Farm and Steve Landers Racing). After lunging at the start of the Springboard Mile, Giant Mischief was rushed up into contention as the odds-on favorite and battled gamely down the stretch to get second as the best horse in the race. Because Giant Mischief ran with Lasix, he was not eligible for Derby points. He has not gotten back to serious workouts since the Springboard, when Cox thought that the Rebel (G2) would be his next goal.

Hit Show (Caesars 125-1, Circa 100-1, Candy Ride, Brad Cox, Gary and Mary West). Hit Show broke his maiden at first asking at Keeneland and then after a fourth in a Churchill allowance he won an allowance at Oaklawn Park. Cox mentioned that the Southwest on Jan. 28 in Arkansas would possibly be his next start. He already has two breezes at Oaklawn this year.

National Treasure (Caesars 20-1, Circa 25-1, Quality Road, Bob Baffert; SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables and partners). National Treasure was the 3-5 favorite in the Sham, where he finished a disappointing third.

Newgate (Caesars 70-1, Circa 75-1, Into Mischief, Bob Baffert; SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables and partners). Newgate was second in the Sham after also getting the place finish in the Bob Hope. He had four starts in graded stakes since winning his debut in July at Del Mar.  

Ones to watch

This is a list of current 3-year-olds with impressive maiden victories who might be prepared to make starts in Kentucky Derby prep races.

Arabian Knight (Caesars 10-1, Circa 9-1, Uncle Mo, Bob Baffert, Zedan Racing Stable)

Banishing (Caesars 125-1, Circa 50-1, Ghostzapper, Brendan Walsh, Godolphin)

Disarm (Caesars 80-1, Circa 150-1, Gun Runner, Steve Asmussen, Winchell Thoroughbreds)

Extra Anejo (Caesars 15-1, Circa 40-1, Into Mischief, Steve Asussen, Winchell Thoroughbreds)

Faustin (Caesars 25-1, Circa 25-1, Curlin, Bob Baffert, Michael Lund Peterson)

Fort Warren (Caesars 100-1, Circa 80-1, Uncle Mo, Bob Baffert; SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables and partners)

Gilmore (Caesars 125-1, Circa 175-1, Uncle Mo, Bob Baffert; SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables and partners)

Jackstown (Caesars 100-1, Circa 200-1, Speightstown, Bob Baffert; SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables and partners)

Silver Heist (Caesars 135-1, Circa NA, Tapit, Steve Asmussen, Whisper Hill Farm)

Tapit’s Conquest (Caesars 85-1, Circa 125-1, Tapit, Brad Cox; Robert LaPenta, eFive Racing, and Madaket Stables)

Tapit Shoes (Caesars 60-1, Circa 45-1, Tapit, Brad Cox; Spendthrift Farm, Steve Landers Racing and Martin Schwartz)

Remaining West division preps

Lecomte (G3) – Fair Grounds – Jan. 21, 20-8-6-4-2

Southwest (G3) – Oaklawn – Jan. 28, 20-8-6-4-2

Robert B. Lewis (G3) – Santa Anita – Feb. 4, 20-8-6-4-2

El Camino Real Derby–Golden Gate Fields – Feb. 11, 10-4-3-2-1

Risen Star (G2) – Fair Grounds – Feb. 18, 50-20-15-10-5

Rebel (G2) – Oaklawn – Feb. 25, 50-20-15-10-5

San Felipe (G2) – Santa Anita – March 4, 50-20-15-10-5

John Battaglia Memorial – Turfway Park – March 4, 20-8-6-4-2

Louisiana Derby (G2) – Fair Grounds – March 25, 100-40-30-20-10

Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) – Turfway – March 25, 100-40-30-20-10

Sunland Park Derby – Sunland Park – March 26, 50-20-15-10-5

Arkansas Derby (G1) – Oaklawn – April 1, 100-40-30-20-10

Blue Grass (G2) – Keeneland – April 8, 2023, 100-40-30-20-10

Santa Anita Derby (G1) – Santa Anita – April 8, 100-40-30-20-10

Lexington (G3) – Keeneland – April 15, 20-8-6-4-2