Kentucky Derby 2023: When will dropouts finally happen?

Attrition is expected, right? Dropouts before Kentucky Derby 2023 are inevitable. At least that has been the conventional wisdom. Connections for Jace’s Road and Skinner are counting on it.

Truth be told, and research be done, it turns out regrets have been RSVP’d in varying numbers since the qualifying-points system was inaugurated 10 years ago.

Not counting the undersubscribed, COVID-delayed Derby of 2020, annual defections numbered as few as one and as many as 13 after the final points prep was run. The reasons have ranged from fevers and injuries to poor workouts and changes of plans. The exits have come as early as mid-April and as late as race day.

Kentucky Derby 2023: What are odds a Pletcher colt wins?

Rich Strike famously benefited at the 11th hour last year. If not for D. Wayne Lukas’s scratch of Ethereal Road just before a Friday-morning deadline, the maiden winner who became an 80-1 Derby surprise would not have drawn into the race.

Three other horses who were on Derby stand-by finished in the top four. In 2014, runner-up Commanding Curve got in when Ring Weekend was reported to have spiked a fever six days before the race. In 2017, Lookin At Lee’s second-place result was made possible the week before when trainer Todd Pletcher withdrew Malagacy and Battalion Runner. Two years ago, O Besos finished fourth after he replaced Concert Tour, who was redirected by Bob Baffert to the Preakness.

These were the horses who raced in the Kentucky Derby after finishing the prep season on the outside looking in. They are listed with their position in the qualifying standings and their result in the Derby. Those horses who were removed from consideration after the final preps are shown alongside:

Entries for this year’s Kentucky Derby will be taken Monday, May 1. Any of up to four also-eligible horses may draw into the race if any of the first 20 entries is scratched by Friday, May 5, at 9 a.m. EDT, the day before the Derby.

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