Kentucky Derby 2023 Scouting Report: West division

The West division of the 2023 Kentucky Derby Scouting Report includes Derby prep races that are run in California, Arkansas, Kentucky and Louisiana. That means stakes for the most part at Santa Anita Park, Oaklawn Park, Fair Grounds, Churchill Downs, Turfway Park and Keeneland.

Since the road to the Derby began in September, seven official points races were run, and three of them were won by 2-year-olds who are part of the West division. Cave Rock was victorious in the American Pharoah (G1) at Santa Anita. Curly Jack won the first points race in September, the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill. The third was Instant Coffee, who picked up 10 points for his triumph in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) under the twin spires.

Of the 29 current 2-year-olds listed in this first Derby Scouting Report, trainer Bob Baffert has 11 horses, Brad Cox trains six of them, and five are from Steve Asmussen’s barn.

Horses trained by Bob Baffert are included in this scouting report, although currently they are ineligible to earn Derby qualifying points, be part of the Kentucky Derby Future Wagers as individual betting interests, or run in the Derby itself because of his suspension by Churchill Downs after Medina Spirit's disqualification for a drug positive after winning the Kentucky Derby. These horses would have to be transferred to another trainer to be able to earn points and to compete in Kentucky Derby.

The following lists shows each horse with his odds at Caesars Sportsbook in Nevada, Kentucky Derby Future Wager odds from pool 2 last month, sire, trainer, owner and Derby qualifying points. Horses trained by Baffert are included with all other 2-year-old males at odds of 4-5 for the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

The leader

Cave Rock (Caesars 16-1, KDFW 4-5, Arrogate, Bob Baffert; Mike Pegram, Karl Watson and Paul Weitman). With a pair of impressive Grade 1 victories in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and the American Pharoah, Cave Rock is the current leader of the West division for this scouting report. The son of Arrogate looked agitated just before the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) but was able to finish second, less than two lengths behind the East division leader Forte.

First tier

These contenders are stakes winners and/or have earned Derby qualifying points. They are listed alphabetically. Those shown with an asterisk next to their KDFW odds were part of a mutuel field of "all other males" not individually listed.

Confidence Game (Caesars 85-1, KDFW 4-5*, Candy Ride, Keith Desormeaux, Don’t Tell My Wife Stables, 1 point). With 1 point from a fifth-place finish in the Iroquois, Confidence Game was a front-end winner of a two-turn allowance at Churchill last month.

Curly Jack (Caesars 100-1, KDFW 61-1, Good Magic, Tom Amoss, Michael McLoughlin, 17 points). Curly Jack earned his 17 qualifying points from a win in the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs, a second in the recent Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and a fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Gulfport (Caesars 100-1, KDFW 70-1, Uncle Mo, Steve Asmussen, William and Corinne Helligbrodt, 3 points). Gulfport has five top-three finishes in a campaign that began with two open-length victories at Churchill and most recently showed a third in the Champagne (G1) during the Belmont at the Big A meeting.

Havnameltdown (Caesars 35-1, KDFW 4-5*, Uncaptured, Bob Baffert; Mike Pegram, Karl Watson and Paul Weitman). There are not many multi-graded stakes winners in this report, but Havnameltdown has a pair of Grade 3 victories. He won the Bob Hope (G3) at Del Mar last month going seven furlongs and the Best Pal in August. His only loss in four starts was a second in the Del Mar Futurity behind Cave Rock.

Honed (Caesars 100-1, KDFW 4-5*, Sharp Azteca, Ken McPeek, Three Chimney Farm and Magdalena Racing, 4 points). Honed was a maiden winner in his first start at Ellis Park and followed that with a second in the Iroquois, which earned him Derby Points. Since then he was eighth and sixth in a pair of graded stakes.

Instant Coffee (Caesars 65-1, KDFW 35-1, Bolt d’Oro, Brad Cox, Gold Square, 10 points). From the connections of Cyberknife, Instant Coffee picked up 10 Derby points when he rallied from behind to win the Kentucky Jockey Club as the favorite.

Loggins (Caesars 20-1, KDFW 19-1, Ghostzapper, Brad Cox, Spendthrift Farm and Steve Landers Racing, 4 points). Loggins was second by a neck behind the 2-year-old division leader Forte in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) after setting the early pace. That came after an open-lengths victory in a maiden race where he was the odds-on favorite.

Mo Strike (Caesars 100-1, KDFW 4-5*, Uncle Mo, Brad Cox, Nasser Bin Omairah). Mo Strike won his first two races, getting an early start to his career in a Churchill maiden and then the Sanford (G3) at Saratoga. His most recent start produced a fourth in the Hopeful (G1).

Red Route One (Caesars 135-1, KDFW 4-5*, Gun Runner, Steve Asmussen, Winchell Thoroughbreds, 5 points). Red Route has two finishes on the Derby trail that earned him points. He was third in the Breeders’ Futurity and fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club.

Two Phil’s (Caesars 100-1, KDFW 4-5*, Hard Spun, Larry Rivelli, Patricia’s Hope and Phillip Sagan). Two Phil’s won three races from five starts at four tracks, including a pair of stakes wins. First, he won the Shakopee Juvenile at Canterbury Park and in his latest start Two Phil’s took the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill.

Verifying (Caesars 125-1, KDFW 74-1, Justify, Brad Cox; Poulin, Westerberg and Magnier, 4 points). Verifying was another impressive debut winner for Brad Cox who was well touted and a heavy favorite. He then ran second in the Champagne and went on to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, where he finished sixth after a troubled start.

Second tier

These horses have a noteworthy performance beyond their maiden victory but have not won a Derby prep. They are listed alphabetically.

Arabian Lion (Caesars 15-1, KDFW 4-5*, Justify, Bob Baffert; Zedan Racing Stables). Arabian Lion was a typical Baffert first-time starter who won easily on the front end as an odds-on favorite. In his second start at Keeneland, he was second behind Giant Mischief, who also is in this report. He sold for $600,000 in April at Ocala.

Echo Again (Caesars 22-1, KDFW 45-1, Gun Runner, Steve Asmussen, Winchell Thoroughbreds). Echo Again debuted at Saratoga as an odds-on favorite and ran off to win by almost seven lengths. He faded badly in the Iroquois and finished seventh. He is one of a few horses in this report from the connections of his sire Gun Runner.

Giant Mischief (Caesars 35-1, KDFW 27-1, Into Mischief, Brad Cox, Spendthrift Farm and Steve Landers Racing). Giant Mischief is unbeaten in two starts for Brad Cox, with a maiden win at Hoosier Indiana as the favorite and then an allowance victory going seven furlongs at the Keeneland fall meeting.

Gandolfini (Caesars 150-1, KDFW 4-5*, Justify, Bob Baffert; SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables and partners). Gandolfini was another debut winner for the Baffert barn. His win at Los Alamitos in September was followed by a fourth-place finish in the American Pharoah at Santa Anita.

National Treasure (Caesars 20-1, KDFW 4-5*, Quality Road, Bob Baffert; SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables and partners). This Baffert runner won at first asking at Del Mar in September and then was second in the American Pharoah and third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Newgate (Caesars 100-1, KDFW 4-5*, Into Mischief, Bob Baffert; SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables and partners). Three starts in graded stakes followed Newgate’s July maiden victory at Del Mar. He was fourth in the Del Mar Futurity, fifth in the Breeders' Futurity and second in the Bob Hope.

Victory Formation (Caesars 100-1, KDFW 4-5*, Tapwrit, Brad Cox, Spendthrift Farm and Frank Fletcher Racing). Victory Formation is another Brad Cox runner with victories in his first two starts, a maiden at Keeneland and most recently an allowance at Churchill.

Ones to watch

This is a list of current 2-year-olds with impressive maiden victories who might be prepared to make starts in Kentucky Derby prep races.

Arabian Knight (Caesars 10-1, KDFW 4-5*, Uncle Mo, Bob Baffert, Zedan Racing Stable).

Bromley (Caesars 150-1, KDFW 4-5*, Mastery, Paulo Lobo, OXO Equine).

Corona Bolt (Caesars 135-1, KDFW – 4-5*, Bolt d’Oro, Brad Cox, Stonestreet Stables).

Disarm (Caesars 80-1, KDFW 45-1, Gun Runner, Steve Asmussen, Winchell Thoroughbreds).

Fort Bragg (Caesars 100-1, KDFW 4-5*, Tapit, Bob Baffert; SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables and partners).

Fort Warren (Caesars 100-1, KDFW 4-5*, Curlin, Bob Baffert; SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables and partners).

Gilmore (Caesars 100-1, KDFW 4-5*, Uncle Mo, Bob Baffert; SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables and partners).

Jackstown (Caesars 100-1, KDFW 4-5*, Speightstown, Bob Baffert; SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables and partners).

Spun Intended (Caesars 65-1, KDFW 4-5*, Hard Spun, Mark Glatt, Edge Racing and Muir Hut Stables).

Tapit’s Conquest (Caesars 85-1, KDFW 4-5*, Tapit, Brad Cox, Robert LaPenta, eFive Racing and Madaket Stables).

Remaining West division preps

Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), Los Alamitos, Saturday, 10-4-3-2-1

Springboard Mile, Remington Park, Saturday, 10-4-3-2-1

Gun Runner, Fair Grounds, Dec. 26, 10-4-3-2-1

Smarty Jones, Oaklawn, Jan. 1, 10-4-3-2-1

Sham (G3), Santa Anita, Jan. 8, 10-4-3-2-1

Lecomte (G3), Fair Grounds, Jan. 21, 20-8-6-4-2

Southwest (G3), Oaklawn, Jan. 28, 20-8-6-4-2

Robert B. Lewis (G3), Santa Anita, Feb. 4, 20-8-6-4-2

El Camino Real Derby, Golden Gate Fields, Feb. 11, 10-4-3-2-1

Risen Star (G2), Fair Grounds, Feb. 18, 50-20-15-10-5

Rebel (G2), Oaklawn, Feb. 25, 50-20-15-10-5

San Felipe (G2), Santa Anita, March 4, 50-20-15-10-5

John Battaglia Memorial, Turfway Park, March 4, 20-8-6-4-2

Louisiana Derby (G2), Fair Grounds, March 25, 100-40-30-20-10

Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), Turfway, March 25, 100-40-30-20-10

Sunland Park Derby, Sunland Park, March 26, 50-20-15-10-5

Arkansas Derby (G1), Oaklawn, April 1, 100-40-30-20-10

Blue Grass (G2), Keeneland, April 8, 100-40-30-20-10

Santa Anita Derby (G1), Santa Anita, April 8, 100-40-30-20-10

Lexington (G3), Keeneland, April 15, 20-8-6-4-2