Kentucky Derby 2023: How important is Saturday’s Iroquois?
If the Kentucky Derby 2023 prep calendar begins with the equivalent of the NFL preseason, then Saturday’s Grade 3, $300,000 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs is akin to the Hall of Fame Game.
Of the 114 teams who played the August game at Canton, Ohio, before this summer, only five got to the Super Bowl or, before that, the NFL Championship Game. None of them won the title.
For the 11th year in a row, the Iroquois will be the first prep that awards points toward qualifying for the Derby. Carded for 2-year-olds annually since 1982, the race never produced a horse who has worn the roses on the first Saturday in May.
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At the Threshold and Lookin At Lee were the only two who hit the board in the Derby after racing in the Iroquois. At the Threshold was third in both races in 1983-84; Looking At Lee finished second in both in 2016-17.
| Year | Horse | Quirin | Iroquois | Derby |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | ||||
| 2020 | Super Stock | E/P 4 | 3rd | 15th |
| Midnight Bourbon | E 8 | 2nd | 5th | |
| 2019 | ||||
| 2018 | ||||
| 2017 | Flameaway | E/P 6 | 6th | 13th |
| 2016 | Lookin At Lee | S 0 | 2nd | 2nd |
| 2015 | ||||
| 2014 | Mr. Z | E 6 | 5th | 13th |
| 2013 | Tapiture | E/P 4 | 3rd | 15th |
| Ride On Curlin | E/P 5 | 4th | 7th | |
| 2012 | Overanalyze | S 4 | 3rd | 11th |
| 2011 | ||||
| 2010 | ||||
| 2009 | Dublin | S 2 | 7th | 7th |
| 2008 | ||||
| 2007 | Court Vision | S 3 | 1st | 13th |
| 2006 | ||||
| 2005 | ||||
| 2004 | Greater Good | S 2 | 3rd | 13th |
| 2003 | The Cliff's Edge | S 0 | 1st | 5th |
| Pro Prado | S 2 | 4th | 13th | |
| 2002 | ||||
| 2001 | Harlan's Holiday | P 3 | 1st | 7th |
| Request For Parole | E/P 2 | 2nd | 5th | |
| 2000 | Keats | E 5 | 3rd | 16th |
| 2000 | 16th | |||
| E: Early (speed) | ||||
| E/P: Early presser (stalk) | ||||
| P: Presser (mid-pack) | ||||
| S: Sustaining (closer) |
It is not like the 20 early preps are completely useless when it comes to finding Derby winners. The Champagne (G1) at Belmont Park, the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland, the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs and the Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct have had a combined 31 graduates who won the Derby, but there has been none from those races since Super Saver in 2009-10.
This year’s 80-1 Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike worked his way through two of the prep races that were worth 10-4-2-1 qualifying points to the top four finishers. He finished fifth on Dec. 26 in the inaugural Gun Runner Stakes at Oaklawn, and then he took fourth in the John Battaglia Memorial on March 5. That one point he earned at Turfway Park proved vital, because it was the difference in getting him off the also-eligible list and into the Derby.
| Ky. Derby 10-4-2-1 preps | Track | Derby wins (most recent) |
|---|---|---|
| Iroquois (G3) | CD | 0 |
| American Pharoah (G1) | SA | 3 (Nyquist 2016) |
| Champagne (G1) | BEL | 10 (Super Saver 2010) |
| Breeders' Futurity (G1) | KEE | 8 (Street Sense 2007) |
| Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) | CD | 7 (Super Saver 2010) |
| Remsen (G2) | AQU | 6 (Thunder Gulch 1995) |
| Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) | LRC | 0 |
| Remington Springboard Mile | RP | 0 |
| Gun Runner | FG | 1 (Rich Strike 2022) |
| Jerome | AQU | 0 |
| Smarty Jones | OP | 0 |
| Sham (G3) | SA | 2 (Authentic 2020) |
| Lecomte (G3) | FG | 2 (Mandaloun 2021) |
| Southwest (G3) | OP | 2 (Smarty Jones 2004) |
| Withers (G3) | AQU | 0 |
| Holy Bull (G3) | GP | 3 (Barbaro 2006) |
| Sam F. Davis (G3) | TAM | 0 |
| Robert B. Lewis (G3) | SA | 3 (I'll Have Another 2012) |
| El Camino Real Derby | GG | 0 |
| John Battaglia Memorial | TP | 1 (Rich Strike 2022) |
Deep closers such as Rich Strike this year and Country House through a stewards ruling in 2019 were the exceptions to the recent trend that Derby victors have to be on or near the lead throughout the race. Since 2014, the other seven horses who wound up in the Churchill Downs infield ceremony went into the clubhouse turn in first place or within 2 1/2 lengths of the lead that day.
The style trend for Iroquois winners has been just the opposite. Whether they had to go a mile or the current distance of 1 1/16 miles, 12 of the last 22 were running sixth or worse after the first quarter-mile. Fourteen of them were at least three lengths behind on their way to the winner’s circle.
Since 2000, only Champali took the field from gate to wire to win the Iroquois. Well, on second look, not quite. He led at all but one call and was a head behind with a quarter-mile left.
| Year | Winner | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3/4 | Str | Fin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Major General | 6 - 4 1/2 | 5 - 3 1/2 | 2 - hd | 1 | 1 |
| 2020* | Sittin On Go | 9 - 4 3/4 | 9 - 4 1/2 | 6 - 4 1/4 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 1 |
| 2019 | Dennis' Moment | 4 - 3 1/2 | 4 - 2 1/2 | 3 - hd | 1 | 1 |
| 2018* | Cairo Cat | 7 - 5 1/2 | 5 - 2 1/4 | 5 - 3/4 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 1 |
| 2017* | The Tabulator | 2 - 1 1/2 | 2 - 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2016* | Not This Time | 7 - 5 | 5 - 3 | 5 - 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 2015* | Cocked and Loaded | 4 - 5 1/2 | 4 - 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2014* | Lucky Player | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - hd | 1 |
| 2013* | Cleburne | 8 - 5 1/2 | 7 - 7 1/2 | 6 - 5 1/2 | 5 - 2 1/2 | 1 |
| 2012 | Uncaptured | 7 - 3 | 5 - 2 1/4 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2011 | Motor City | 7 - 3 1/2 | 7 - 5 1/2 | 6 - 5 | 2 - hd | 1 |
| 2010 | Astrology | 3 - 1/2 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2009 | Thiskyhasnolimit | 8 - 7 1/2 | 8 - 4 3/4 | 5 - 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2008 | Capt. Candyman Can | 3 - 1/2 | 2 - hd | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2007 | Court Vision | 8 - 6 3/4 | 8 - 5 | 8 - 5 1/4 | 5 - 5 | 1 |
| 2006 | Tiz Wonderful | 4 - 1 | 1 | 2 - hd | 1 | 1 |
| 2005 | Catcominatcha | 7 - 2 3/4 | 5 - 1 1/4 | 6 - 1 1/4 | 4 - 1 3/4 | 1 |
| 2004 | Straight Line | 4 - 1 1/4 | 2 - 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2003 | The Cliff's Edge | 8 - 6 | 5 - 3 1/2 | 3 - 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2002 | Champali | 1 | 1 | 3 - hd | 1 | 1 |
| 2001 | Harlan's Holiday | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 | 2 - hd | 1 | 1 |
| 2000 | Meetyouathebrig | 12 - 7 | 12 - 9 | 11 - 9 | 4 - 1 1/2 | 1 |
| *1 mile. Others 1 1/16. |
Echo Again, a Gun Runner colt who won his debut by 6 3/4 lengths last month at Saratoga, is a candidate to buck the Iroquois trend and perhaps lead Saturday’s renewal the whole way. He earned a 94 Beyer Speed Figure, according to Daily Racing Form, the third best for a 2-year-old racing in 2022.
Since futures betting for the Derby usually does not open in Las Vegas until right around Breeders’ Cup time, it is too early to find meaningful action ahead of next May. But even eight months out, it is not too soon to dream. Finding an analytical bridge between hopes and wagers remains the challenge of horseplayers tempted to take an early plunge.