Kentucky Derby 2023: Early full-field odds and analysis

The road to the Kentucky Derby 2023 began Sept. 17 at Churchill Downs and ended April 15 at Keeneland and included 37 official prep races that carried qualifying points. With 17 days until the run for the roses, 46 is the number of points required to get in the starting gate.

During the points era, which began in 2013, there were clear trends from the 10 horses that crossed the finish line in front. These statistics include Medina Spirit and Maximum Security, who were disqualified from their first-place finishes.

Eight of the winners prepped for the Derby with a victory in a 100-point race. Four were in the Florida Derby (G1), two in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and one each in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and the Haskell (G1).

There were only two Kentucky Derby winners who rallied from far back to win, Orb in 2013 and last year with Rich Strike. The other eight were either front runners or stalkers, and none of them were never farther back than third-place.

The favorite lost in the last four runnings of the Kentucky Derby, but from 2013 to 2018 six favorites in a row won with odds ranging from 2.30-1 to 5.40-1.

The projected field, as it currently stands, includes 20 horses who are listed in order of morning-line odds and with their Derby points, most recent race result, their highest Beyer Speed Figure courtesy of Daily Racing Form, sire, trainer, probable jockey assignment, career record and earnings.

Forte (7-2, 190, 1st Florida Derby, 100, Violence, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., 7: 6-0-0, $2,409,830) Forte heads to the Kentucky Derby with the most qualifying points, the most wins and the highest career earnings. He is one of only four horses that ran a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure in his career. Forte’s Derby-trail victories came after stalking or closing trips. The son of Violence has similar credentials to the 2016 Derby winner Nyquist. They both were winners of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the 2-year-old championship and the Florida Derby. His trainer Todd Pletcher will be trying to win the the roses for the third time while jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. tries for his first. Win contender.

Tapit Trice (6-1, 150, 1st Blue Grass, 99, Tapit, Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, 5: 4-0-1, $883,650) Tapit Trice is the second horse from the Pletcher barn in the Derby field. He was third in his debut at Aqueduct in November and since then won four races in a row, including the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and the Blue Grass with closing trips. In the Blue Grass he won by a head with a 99 Beyer. Overall he won at four tracks at distances ranging from a mile to 1 1/8 miles. Win contender.

Angel of Empire (8-1, 154, 1st Arkansas Derby, 94, Classic Empire, Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, 6: 4-1-0, $1,069,375) Angel of Empire is another winner of a 100-point Derby prep in the Arkansas Derby who prefers to run from off the pace with a closing trip. He won his first race at Horseshoe Indianapolis and since ran at three other tracks, picking up his 154 points at Oaklawn and Fair Grounds. Win contender.

Practical Move (10-1, 160, 1st Santa Anita Derby (G1), 100, Practical Move, Tim Yakteen, Ramon Vasquez, 7: 4-1-2, $884,200) Practical Move emerged as the leading Derby contender from California. It is an interesting twist that this horse has been trained by Tim Yakteen throughout his career as opposed to the horses who were transferred to him from Bob Baffert so they would be eligible for Derby points. Practical Move, who was bred by Chad Brown, won his last three starts, beginning with the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) as a maiden. This year he added the San Felipe (G2) and the Santa Anita Derby. All his wins were with stalking trips. Win contender.

Derma Sotogake (10-1, 100, 1st UAE Derby (G2), NA, Mind Your Biscuits, Otonashi Hidetaka, Christophe Lemaire, 8: 4-0-2, $1,162,164) Derma Sotogake qualified for the Derby with a front-running victory in the UAE Derby by more then five lengths. The UAE Derby was won several times with clear-cut efforts on the lead, but then the winners failed to replicate that performance on the first Saturday in May. Horses from Japan have been winning big races all over the world in the last few years, including the Breeders’ Cup. Win contender.

Kingsbarns (12-1, 100, 1st Louisiana Derby (G2), 100, Uncle Mo, Todd Pletcher, TBD, 3: 3-0-0, $657,300) The third Pletcher trainee has a 3-for-3 career record. He made his first start in January at Gulfstream Park and then dominated an allowance at Tampa. He became a 100-point race winner at Fair Grounds with a 100 Beyer and a dominant front-end effort against a field of 12. Win contender.

Two Phil’s (20-1, 123, 1st Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), 101, Hard Spun, Larry Rivelli, Jareth Loveberry, 8: 4-1-1, $683,450) Two Phil’s actually has the highest Beyer, a 101 that he earned in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) with a closing trip. Two Phil’s ran at six tracks with three stakes victories, including the recent win on the Derby trail. He seems to find a way to be in contention at the finish line. Use underneath.

Verifying (20-1, 54, 2nd Blue Grass, 99, Justify, Brad Cox, Tyler Gaffalione, 6: 2-2-0 - $489,900) Verifying prefers to press the pace as he did in the Blue Grass when he had the lead in the stretch and lost the battle by a neck to Tapit Trice. He is the second of four horses from the barn of Brad Cox who are in this Derby analysis. Use underneath.

Hit Show (25-1, 60, 2nd Wood Memorial (G2), 93, Candy Ride, Brad Cox, Manny Franco, 5: 3-1-0, $404,375) Hit Show was a debut winner in October for Brad Cox at Keeneland and became an allowance winner at Oaklawn to end his 2-year-old campaign. He moved to the New York Derby trail, where he won the Withers (G3) with a stalking trip and then just missed winning the Wood Memorial by a nose. Hit Show was a significant favorite in all five of his starts. Speed figures say that he might be a bit slower than the top horses in this field. Use underneath.

Mage (25-1, 50, 2nd Florida Derby (G1), 94, Good Magic, Gustavo Delgado, TBD, 3: 1-1-0, $247,200) Mage is lightly raced with only three starts. He won his first start at Gulfstream in January on the front end. He came back in the Fountain of Youth (G2), where he faced Forte for the first time and had a troubled trip that forced him to stalk the speed to finish fourth. In the Florida Derby he got off to a slow start, rallied wide from last, got the lead in the stretch but could not hold off a courageous move by Forte. Win contender.

Confidence Game (30-1, 57, 1st Rebel (G2), 94, Candy Ride, Keith Desormeaux, James Graham, 7: 3-1-2, $785,525) Confidence Game began his career early at Churchill Downs in July and broke his maiden in his second start as the favorite. He moved onto the Derby trail with a fifth in the Iroquois (G3) but it was in 2023 that he became prominent. Confidence Game was third in the Lecomte (G3) and then won the Rebel on a sloppy track at 18-1. He went a few weeks before returning to training, was possible to run in the Lexington (G3) but then did not race. Desormeaux said he would train up to the Derby. It is not easy to prep for 10 furlongs without a recent start. Toss.

Sun Thunder (30-1, 54, 4th Blue Grass, 89, Into Mischief, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 6: 1-1-0, $247,500) Sun Thunder made four starts on the Derby trail after getting his maiden win at Oaklawn on New Year’s Eve. He still has only one victory but picked up enough points to get in the run for the roses. Sun Thunder is another horse who prefers to run from off the pace as a closer. Toss.

Blazing Sevens (30-1, 46, 3rd Blue Grass, 93, Good Magic, Chad Brown, TBD, 4: 2-0-1, $565,250) As of this article Blazing Sevens is still a Derby contender, although there is talk that Chad Brown will pass on the first Saturday in May and look to the Preakness with the son of Good Magic. The Champagne (G1) winner did not make much of a move forward in his subsequent starts on the Derby trail, although the third in the Blue Grass got him just enough points to run in the Derby. Toss.

Disarm (30-1, 46, 3rd Lexington, 90, Gun Runner, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario, 4: 1-2-1, $290,350) After running second in the Louisiana Derby, Steve Asmussen sent Disarm to the Lexington in need of at least a third-place finish to get into the Kentucky Derby field. That is exactly what happened when he ran third but was not a threat to win or even run second. Asmussen noted after the race that Disarm was cutting back in distance a furlong, which was not ideal for a horse who he thinks will thrive at the Derby distance. Use underneath.

Reincarnate (30-1, 45, 3rd Arkansas Derby, 95, Good Magic, Tim Yakteen, John Velazquez, 7: 2-3-2, $345,650) Reincarnate made two starts on the Derby trail since moving to the Yakteen barn from Bob Baffert. Reincarnate had a troubled trip in the Rebel and finished a noteworthy third. He headed to the Arkansas Derby as the buzz horse, but he did not improve the results when he pressed the pace in second but faded to third after a perfect trip. Toss.

Raise Cain (40-1, 64, 5th Blue Grass, 90, Violence, Ben Colebrook, Javier Castellano, 7: 2-1-1, $296,328) Raise Cain was a deep closer in his last two starts, which produced a win in the Gotham (G3) at odds of 23-1 when he romped to a more than seven-length advantage. Long-shot winners rarely reproduce their unexpected results, and Raise Cain was fifth in the Blue Grass. Toss.

Rocket Can (40-1, 60, 4th Arkansas Derby, 91, Into Mischief, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 7: 2-2-0, $383,413) Rocket Can made his 2023 debut on the Kentucky Derby trail and responded with a victory in the Holy Bull (G3) in February. Subsequent starts produced a second in the Fountain of Youth (G2) behind Forte and then a fourth in Arkansas Derby as the favorite. The Oaklawn race was a step backwards in speed figures and finish position while other 3-year-olds were advancing. Toss.

Continuar (40-1, Japan, 3rd UAE Derby (G1), NA, Drefong, Yeshito Yahagi, Ryusei Sakai – 5: 2-1-1 - $337,889) Continuar earned a spot in the Derby field as the leader from the road to the Kentucky Derby standings in Japan. He had a strong juvenile campaign in Japan but this year was beaten by 10 lengths when third behind Derma Sotogake in the UAE Derby. Toss.

Lord Miles (50-1, 105, 1st Wood Memorial, 93, Curlin, Saffie Joseph Jr., Paco Lopez, 5: 2-0-1, $451,100) Lord Miles’ form had gone bad in the Holy Bull and the Tampa Derby after a promising a third in the Mucho Macho Man. Still, trainer Joseph was willing to take a chance in the Wood Memorial, which produced an upset victory at odds of 59-1 and a career best Beyer of 93. Lord Miles is unlikely to find another winning late run like he used at Aqueduct. Toss.

Wild On Ice (99-1, 50, 1st Sunland Park Derby (G3), 77, Tapizar, Joel Marr, Ken Tohill, 5: 3-0-1 - $405,400) Wild On Ice is likely to be the longest shot in the Run for the Roses even after winning the Sunland Park Derby at 35-1 with a stalking trip when the favorites in that field of six did not run well. His career-high Beyer is a very slow 77. Toss.

Next three in the field (ordered by points and graded-stakes earnings):

Jace’s Road (40-1, 45, 3rd Louisiana Derby, 90, Quality Road, Brad Cox, TBD, 6: 2-0-2 - $238,050)

Skinner (20-1, 45, 3rd Santa Anita Derby, 99, Curlin, John Shirreffs, Victor Espinoza, 6: 1-0-3, $216,300)

Cyclone Mischief (40-1, 45, 3rd Florida Derby, 91, Into Mischief, Dale Romans, TBD, 7: 2-0-3 - $246,350)

Summary: Whether you are looking to bet to win in the Kentucky Derby or you prefer to bet the exacta, trifecta or superfecta, you have to limit the number of horses you use from the field of 20. This early look at the Derby field classifies each horse as a win contender, to use underneath in the vertical exotics or to toss from all wagers.

You will find seven horses to consider as win contenders, four to use underneath and nine to toss.