Kentucky Derby 2023: Cox is surprised by 1 of his 4 colts

It is a fact of life for trainers at Churchill Downs. Keep one eye on the horses and the other on the weather.

Being a native of Louisville, Ky., who grew up walking distance from the track, Brad Cox knows that better than anyone.

“It does look like we’re going to get some rain on Friday,” he said. “But it could also be Saturday as well. Listen, we’re definitely going to watch the weather and watch the racetrack and make a decision.”

See Kentucky Derby fair odds from Ed DeRosa.

The dilemma for Cox is when to breeze all his horses one last time in preparation not only for Kentucky Derby 2023 but also the Kentucky Oaks (G1).

“It could be as early as Friday,” he told reporters Wednesday on a National Thoroughbred Racing Association conference call.

Whenever it is, the eight horses will attract a lot of attention from stopwatch holders eager to see whether they are worth the money being bet on them in futures markets.

Angel of Empire, who won the Arkansas Derby (G1), shortened to a best Las Vegas price of 13-1 to win the Kentucky Derby. Verifying, who was a close second in the Blue Grass (G1), was 14-1 on Thursday morning. That made them among the top six choices in Nevada. Wood Memorial (G2) runner-up Hit Show was 35-1, and Louisiana Derby (G2) third-place finisher Jace’s Road was 50-1.

Looking for his third Oaks win in six years, Cox has presumptive favorite Wet Paint, who was 3-1 this week with one international bookmaker, and second choice Botanical, who was 7-1. He also trains The Alys Look, who was 20-1, and Punchbowl, who was 12-1 despite being four deep on the waiting list to get into next Friday’s race.

If Cox was surprised by any of these successes, he said it was with the rapid ascent of Angel of Empire, who followed his second-place finish in the Smarty Jones on New Year’s Day with wins in the Risen Star (G2) and the Arkansas Derby.

“If you had asked back in November or December if I thought he was a Derby horse, I would say, eh, probably need to do more,” said Cox, who will be training in his third Kentucky Derby. “But guess what? He did do more. And he got better the further he went. But once again, based on him physically, we always knew he was a horse that would love two turns and likes a mile-and-an-eighth. He’s been able to win twice at the distance. He’s another one who should like the mile-and-a-quarter, for sure.”

Comparing his other colts to Angel of Empire, Cox said they all showed promise at different times in their development.

“Always liked Verifying. He had enough speed to win going short,” Cox said. “We liked Hit Show a tremendous amount the first time. … And then obviously Jace’s Road was a horse that won going short as well. Those were handier horses. Maybe they’re just a little quicker horses away from the gate as well as opposed to Angel of Empire taking a little bit longer to come around just based off his physical build and his pedigree and stuff.”

Cox has a Derby win to his credit, although it was nine months after the 2021 running before Mandaloun was promoted by stewards, what with the court fights that followed first-place Medina Spirit’s positive drug test. Of course, the 43-year-old trainer would love to celebrate such a victory on race day rather than in the quiet of the following winter.

“There’s no thrill in saying you won the Derby through a phone call that says you were placed first through a DQ,” Cox said. “That’s just not something to get excited about, the way I see it. There was no celebration. There was no post-race win picture.”

Cox said even Hall of Famer Bill Mott, who trained Country House to a Derby victory in 2019 that was awarded after Maximum Security was disqualified, got to experience the triumph while it still was fresh.

“In Bill Mott’s case, their decision was made 20 minutes after the Derby, not six months or whenever,” Cox said. “Totally different deal. We do look forward hopefully this year to winning it. I think we’ve got some really good shots.”

Then laughing, he said, “I’m hopeful that some day we can experience it. I’m sure it would be a feeling like no other.”