Kentucky Derby 2023: Can Raise Cain pull off a shocking upset?

Louisville, Ky.

Raise Cain is one of the longest shots on the Kentucky Derby 2023 morning line. Set at 50-1, the fifth-place finisher in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes isn’t thought to have a big chance in Saturday’s race.

The Violence colt is trained by Ben Colebrook, who will saddle his first Kentucky Derby starter. He seemed at peace with the high odds.

“It’s about right,” Colebrook told Horse Racing Nation on Tuesday. “If he’d have been third in the Blue Grass he would have a shorter price. The way he ran, I think they were all, fifth through third, separated by about a half-length. Sun Thunder’s 50-1 too, so it is what it is. The odds don’t matter, I’m not going to tell him he’s 50-1.”

Raise Cain, out of Lemon Belle, by Lemon Drop Kid, got to Colebrook after his owners, Andrew Warren and Rania Warren, tried to sell him at Ocala as a 2-year-old. When their reserve wasn’t met, they instead opted to race the colt, which they bought for $180,000 as a yearling.

When Raise Cain arrived in his barn, Colebrook wasn’t especially impressed by the colt’s size or body type.

“He never did anything wrong before he had run the first time, he had showed he had some talent,” Colebrook said. “But I’d be lying if I said I thought he was a Derby horse last year in the fall.”

In his first attempt in a maiden race at Churchill Downs as a juvenile, he finished eighth. Less than a month later, he wheeled back at Keeneland and won going seven furlongs on the dirt.

After that, he jumped up to stakes company. His first time in a route race, the Gun Runner at Fair Grounds, he earned his first four Derby points with a second-place finish.

Raise Cain finished fifth in his 3-year-old debut, the Leonatus at Turfway, but his big moment came in the next race, the Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct.

“The pace went so fast in front of him and kind of collapsed,” Colebrook said.

Over the muddy track, the colt drew clear and won by 7 1/4 lengths. He earned 50 Derby points for his effort.

He was less fortunate in his next try, the Blue Grass, earning 10 points from his fifth-place effort. According to Colebrook, the problem was that he was too far back at the start of the race.

“Our plan was to kind of take back and make one run,” Colebrook said. “But the pace never materialized and they go (48.04 for the half-mile). From where we were we needed 46 or 47, we were probably five lengths too far back. If he was five lengths closer I think it would have been a little different story, might have been a clear third.”

For Raise Cain to win the Derby, everything will need to break exactly right. Colebrook acknowledged such, noting his colt will need a blazing fast pace to have any chance.

He also said he was hoping for Derby day rain to get the track in ideal conditions for how the colt runs. Raise Cain will start from post No. 16 with Gerardo Corrales in the irons.

“There’s speed, (Derma Sotogake) from the outside’s going to go and Forte to our inside’s going to kind of be mid-pack,” Colebrook said. “So hopefully, maybe you can even just follow Irad (Ortiz Jr., Forte’s rider) around there and see how it shakes out, but I’m just hoping he gets to the first turn in good shape, and then after that, you know, if you get through the first turn, you’ve got a shot.”