Kentucky Derby 2022 scenarios: What 47 horses need to qualify

It seems a bit like Week 18 in the NFL. Who has clinched, who needs to win, and who needs help to advance? That is almost what the Kentucky Derby 2022 trail will be like on Saturday. Almost.

The last three major preps will be run and won at Aqueduct, Keeneland and Santa Anita. They also will have runners-up. If this were a normal year, the top two from each race – the Wood Memorial (G2), Blue Grass (G1) and Santa Anita Derby (G1) – definitely could make their plans to start at Churchill Downs on May 7.

The winners will be safely in the mix for Louisville, but this spring the second-place finishers have to sweat it out.

What makes this year abnormal is the sudden surge of 3-year-olds formerly in the care of suspended Hall of Famer Bob Baffert having their first – and last – chance for points with new trainers this weekend.

Messier, the even-money, morning-line favorite for the Santa Anita Derby, is one such colt. If he were to win Saturday, he would go from zero to 100 in less than two minutes. He would break into the top 20 – and knock someone else out.

Zandon, the 5-2 second choice in the Blue Grass, needs a top-two finish this weekend to clinch his place in the starting gate May 7 at Churchill Downs. That would bump someone out. Even Smile Happy, who is 9-5 on the Keeneland morning line and a former Derby futures favorite, is not safe if he finishes out of the money Saturday.

The way the math works, as many as 10 horses could finish with exactly 40 points, which is as high as the cut line can go. Even Bye Bye Bobby, a minor stakes winner in New Mexico, could join the crowd by winning the April 16 running of the Lexington Stakes (G3) and the 20 points that go with it.

With dropouts from the top 20 still a possibility (read: Classic Causeway), a 10-way tie for the last two or three spots in the Derby seems about as likely as cashing a Pick 6 ticket playing six singles. But with single-digit, morning-line odds for eight starters Saturday who are outside the top 20, the possibility exists for the earnings tiebreaker to be invoked for only the second time since the points format came into play nine years ago. The one time so far was in 2014, when $2,000 made the difference between eventual runner-up Commanding Curve being in the Derby and Pablo Del Monte being out.

With a nod to those playoff scenarios that grip the nation every January, here are the Kentucky Derby qualifying possibilities going into this weekend.

Note: This list has been updated to reflect defections reported Thursday by Churchill Downs, including Pappacap, who is being pointed to the Pat Day Mile (G2) on May 7.

And what happens if there is a big tie at 40 points? This is how Horse Racing Nation projects the how tiebreaker could play out, knowing that no more than 10 of these horses could be in the mix. (Before you ask, yes, all dollars count, according to a Churchill Downs spokesman, even if they were earned while with Baffert.)