Kentucky Derby 2022: Who are the fastest contenders?

Six of the last eight horses to cross the finish line first in the Kentucky Derby have come from California. If speed figures are correct, it could be more of the same in 2022.

Messier and Taiba lead all contenders in the Beyer Speed Figure department. Messier earned a 103 Beyer in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3). Taiba earned the same number when defeating his stablemate in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Epicenter is the only other horse in the field to earn a figure above 100, earning a 102 Beyer in the Louisiana Derby.

TimeformUS also values the strength of Tim Yakteen's duo. Messier's career high of 127 and Taiba's best of 125 top the field. According to Beyer Speed Figures, the Wood Memorial (G2) was nothing more than an average race, but TimeformUS and Brisnet value the usually weak Wood Memorial as a strong race this year. Early Voting's 122 TimeformUS number and Mo Donegal's 121 figure are the third and fourth best in the field. They both earned a Brisnet Rating of 111, which tie with Taibafor the best in the Derby.

Among long shots, Zozos has the best chance to spring an upset, based on speed figures. He has faster numbers across the board than Florida Derby winner White Abarrio and will likely be double the price. His Beyers have progressed from 70 to 88 to 98. His Brisnet Ratings have improved from 76 to 98, and his TimeformUS numbers has gone from 98 to 116 in only three starts.

Zozos joins Epicenter, Early Voting, Pioneer of Medina and Zandon as the only horses in the field whose speed figures have gone up each time they have run in each of the three categories.

According to the speed figures, Arkansas is the circuit to avoid in this year's Kentucky Derby. For winning the Arkansas Derby (G1), Cyberknife earned a Brisnet Figure three points lower than Happy Jack did while being dusted in the Santa Anita Derby. Un Ojo notched only an 84 Beyer Speed Figure for his upset win in the Rebel (G2). Barber Road ran in all four of the Derby preps in Arkansas and failed to put forth a figure that makes him competitive in any of those races.

Below is a closer look at the career best Beyer Speed Figures, Brisnet Speed Ratings and TimeformUS Speed Figures for the North American contenders in the prospective 2022 Kentucky Derby field.

Beyer Speed Figures and TimeformUS Speed Figures are courtesy of Daily Racing Form. Brisnet speed ratings are courtesy of Brisnet.