Kentucky Derby 2022: See field, odds, reactions to draw
Louisville, Ky.
Someone once said the morning line is worth every cent put into it. If that is the case, who knows whether Zandon really will be the favorite for the 2022 Kentucky Derby? Or will Epicenter, the futures choice in Las Vegas and overseas, end up with the shortest odds?
After Zandon drew post 10 and was given odds of 3-1 by longtime linemaker Mike Battaglia, trainer Chad Brown offered some perspective.
“It’s a great position to be in,” he said in the crowded Aristides Lounge at Churchill Downs, where Monday’s draw was held. “But at the end of the day, if you don’t win, no one really remembers who was favored.”
Actual betting dollars will determine whether Zandon really will be the favorite at post time Saturday at 6:57 p.m. EDT, when the 148th Kentucky Derby will be run.
In Las Vegas, Louisiana Derby (G2) victor Epicenter had held forth as the 9-2 futures favorite, albeit with a big percentage of dollars that had been bet into the pools through the winter and early spring. On the morning line he was made the 7-2 second choice coming out of post 3.
Asked if he was surprised Epicenter had not been made the favorite for the track program, trainer Steve Asmussen said, “I’ll be surprised if he gets beat. The rest I have nothing to do with.”
Circa Sports in Las Vegas, the first book to reopen its Derby market after the draw, made Zandon and Epicenter its co-favorites at 9-2 (actually plus 485).
It has been well documented that Brown and Asmussen have no Derby victories. Between them they are 0-for-30. None of those 30 horses was the post-time favorite in all the years the two trainers have tried to break a collective slump that belies career successes and a combined six Eclipse Awards.
Zandon may have a closing style that has not resulted in a first-place Derby finish since Orb in 2013. But ideally positioned into the middle of the big starting gate with 2019 Derby winner Flavien Prat riding, Brown had no qualms about the draw or, for that matter, much of anything so far in the buildup to Saturday’s $3 million classic.
“When you’re trying to find a way to the winner’s circle in this race, there’s a lot of landmines,” he said. “We avoided another one here. A little more time to go until Saturday, but so far the horse is doing great, and we have a great post.”
For Epicenter, who figures to show some early speed, the break from post 3 could get crowded. He and Summer Is Tomorrow, the frontrunning UAE Derby (G2) runner-up coming out of post 4, both will want to get good position as the field bottlenecks toward them in the long run to the first turn.
“I’ve always said about post positions that you don’t know to complain about them until after the race is run,” said Asmussen, who will give Orb’s old jockey and current Eclipse winner Joel Rosario the leg up on Epicenter. “I would be very surprised if he wasn’t in the first flight off of his ability and where he’s been in all of his previous races.”
Battaglia predicted Messier, the runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), would be the only other horse in single-digit odds to win. After getting post 6 with John Velázquez, he was made 8-1 on the morning line. Messier was reopened at 6-1 (plus 625) at Circa.
Messier’s lightly raced stablemate Taiba, who won the Santa Anita Derby, are drew post 12 with jockey Mike Smith and is 12-1 on the morning line, but he is 7-1 at Circa. Both are handled now by Tim Yakteen, who got the horses in a transfer after their original trainer Bob Baffert was suspended.
“I’m happy with both posts,” Yakteen said. “Both of my horses are tactical, and I have two great riders. You always need a clean break, that’s why you’d like to draw to the middle and outside and get a clean run around the turn.”
Usually, the rail draw is seen as the loser, since it attracts crushing traffic and has not resulted in a winner since Ferdinand in 1986. But Wood Memorial (G2) winner Mo Donegal, 10-1 on the morning line after getting stuck with post 1, is a deep closer who might not be so compromised.
Battaglia usually has his finger on the pulse of the betting public. He has pegged the favorite 38 of the 48 years he has written the Derby morning line. The last time he missed was three years ago, when his favorite Omaha Beach was scratched, and the revised top choice Game Winner went off as the fourth choice.