Kentucky Derby 2022 Scouting Report: East Coast division

Five qualifying races remain in the East Coast division of the 2022 Kentucky Derby trail at Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs. This list of Derby contenders has been trimmed down to 19 horses, ranging from the recent Rebel Stakes (G2) winner to a few eye-catching maiden winners.

The leaders

These contenders have recent Derby trail victories. They are listed in order by Derby qualifying points earned.

(Circa Sports and Caesars at William Hill odds (if available) - Sire – Trainer – Owner - Derby points)

Un Ojo (Circa 70-1, Caesars - William Hill 100-1 – Laoban – Ricky Corville – Cypress Creek Equine - 54) – This New York-bred had a pair of seconds at Aqueduct for trainer Tony Dutrow, including the Withers (G3) behind Early Voting. He was switched to trainer Ricky Corville right before the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park, which he won with a closing rally up the rail at odds of 75-1. The one-eyed gelding earned an 84 Beyer for the upset win and may return in the Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 2. He is currently second overall in the Derby points standings.

Mo Donegal (Circa 18-1, Caesars - William Hill 18-1 – Uncle Mo – Todd Pletcher – Donegal Racing - 12) Mo Donegal was third in the Holy Bull (G3) when he got far behind after running into traffic. He got clear in the final sixteenth to make a strong rally to finish third. He was the morning-line favorite for the Fountain of Youth (G2), but he drew post position 12, and Pletcher reported he spiked a fever to force him out of the race. He is being pointed to the Wood Memorial (G2) next month at Aqueduct, where he already was a winner.

White Abarrio (Circa 30-1, Caesars - William Hill 15-1 – Race Day – Saffie Joseph Jr. – C2 Racing Stable and La Milagrosa Stable - 12) – White Abarrio earned a big Beyer Speed Figure of 97 when he pressed the pace in the Holy Bull and drew off to win by more than four lengths at odds of 6-1. He is expected to try to get his fourth victory at Gulfstream in the Florida Derby (G1).

Early Voting (Circa 25-1, Caesars - William Hill 16-1 – Gun Runner – Chad Brown – Klaravich Stables - 10) Early Voting is by Gun Runner and is out of a dam who is a half-sister to Speightstown and a full brother to Irap. He won the Withers (G3) over Un Ojo, who came back to upset the Rebel at odds of 75-1.

First tier

These contenders already are stakes winners and/or have earned Derby qualifying points. They are listed alphabetically.

Major General (Circa 50-1, Caesars - William Hill 45-1 – Constitution – Todd Pletcher – WinStar Farm and Siena Farm - 10) Major General won both of his starts last year ,including the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs with a late rally that earned 10 Derby points. He has not raced since that Sept. 18 victory, but has been training steadily for the last two months. Pletcher set the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) as a goal for his return to racing.

Morello (Circa 35-1, Caesars - William Hill 25-1 – Classic Empire – Steve Asmussen – Blue Lion Thoroughbreds, Craig and Victoria Taylor) – Morello has a 2-for-2 record with a pair of wins at Aqueduct, including the Jimmy Winkfield last month. He is expected to run in the Gotham (G3) at the Big A on Saturday.

Zandon (Circa 20-1, Caesars - William Hill 15-1 – Upstart – Chad Brown – Jeff Drown - 14) Zandon had bad racing luck in his two starts on the Derby trail. In the Remsen (G2), he took the worst of the rough riding by Irad Ortiz Jr. in the stretch duel with Mo Donegal. Then in the Risen Star (G2), he broke last after he hopped at start and rallied for third as a horse who wanted to be forwardly placed. Chad Brown identified the Blue Grass (G1) on April 9 as the next race for Zandon.

Second tier

This group has horses with Derby points or promising allowance victories. They are listed alphabetically.

Commandperformance (Circa 32-1, Caesars - William Hill 30-1 – Union Rags – Todd Pletcher – Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable - 6) Still a maiden, Command Performance earned his Derby points from the Champagne (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. After his juvenile campaign, Pletcher felt that he might have asked too much of him. He posted five works in February in Florida from three to five furlongs.

Dean’s List – (Circa 150-1, Caesars - William Hill 100-1 – Speightstown – Todd Pletcher – WinStar and Siena Farms) Dean’s List has 2 wins from 2 starts. This colt recorded both victories at Gulfstream in sprints and had the look of a horse who might be challenged by longer races, so Pletcher opts to try the one-turn mile in the Gotham (G3).

Emmanuel - (Circa 18-1, Caesars - William Hill 16-1 – More Than Ready – Todd Pletcher – WinStar and Siena Farms) Emmanuel is yet another contender on the list with a 2-for-2 record. Luis Saez will get back on board for Emmanuel’s third start in the Fountain of Youth, where he will break from post position 8. He broke his maiden at Gulfstream as the favorite on Dec. 11. At Tampa, Emmanuel was an allowance winner on Jan. 22, when he set the pace and drew off easily when finally asked in the stretch.

In Due Time (Circa 40-1, Caesars - William Hill 30-1 – Not This Time – Kelly Breen – Edge Racing) – In Due Time was a debut winner at Monmouth Park in July and was off the rest of the year. He won an allowance at Gulfstream over a strong field going a mile, leading trainer Kelly Breen to start him in the Fountain of Youth.

Shipsational (Circa 80-1, Caesars - William Hill 70-1 – Midshipman – Eddie Barker – Iris Smith Stable - 4) – Shipsational is another New York-bred who ran well on the Derby trail when he used a late rally to finish second in the Sam F. Davis (G3) after winning a pair of state-bred stakes at Belmont Park. Veteran New York trainer Eddie Barker said the Tampa Bay Derby on March 12 is next.

Simplification (Circa 100-1, Caesars - William Hill 22-1 – Not This Time – Antonio Sano – Tami Bobo - 4) – Simplification was a front-end winner of the Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream Park earning a 90 BSF, which sent him to the Holy Bull (G3) with odds of 7-2. He broke poorly but rallied to finish second. He is entered in Saturday’s Fountain of Youth with a rider change to Jose Ortiz.

Ones to watch

This is a list of 3-year-olds with impressive maiden victories who might be preparing to make starts in Kentucky Derby prep races.

Charge It - (Circa 13-1, William Hill 16-1 – Tapit – Todd Pletcher – Whisper Hill Farm) Charge It attracted a lot of attention at the Las Vegas sportsbooks after he broke his maiden by more then eight lengths going a mile at Gulfstream. He already posted a breeze since that eye-catching Feb. 12 victory.

Happy Boy Rocket (Circa 200-1, Caesars - William Hill 150-1 – Runhappy – Bill Mott – Frank Fletcher Racing Operations) – Happy Boy Rocket got his maiden breaker on Jan. 29 at Gulfstream going 1 1/16 miles in his second start for Bill Mott. The $490,000 2-year-old purchase posted three workouts in February.

Key Point (Circa 175-1, Caesars - William Hill 125-1 – Into Mischief – Chad Brown – Jeff Drown) This New York-bred is also a home-bred from the same owner as Zandon. He made his only start a victory at Saratoga when he beat state-breds by more than three lengths in a six-furlong sprint on Aug. 12. Key Point has been working steadily in Florida since the end of January.

Momentous (Caesars - William Hill 125-1 – Speightstown – Todd Pletcher – WinStar, Bonne Chance, and Siena Farms) – Momentous was a debut winner at Fair Grounds by a head over a well-bred Stonestreet horse in a fast time of 1:09.58. This Pletcher prospect is out of a Medaglia d’Oro mare.

Nitrous Channel (Circa 150-1, Caesars - William Hill 135-1 – Nyquist – George Weaver – R. A. Hill Stable, Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Spedale Family Racing) Nitrous Channel was an impressive maiden winner at Gulfstream on Feb. 5 going six furlongs and earning a 94 Beyer. He is back in serious training in Florida. He sold for $200,000 as a yearling and then $625,000 as a 2-year-old.

Swing Shift (Circa 200-1, Caesars - William Hill 135-1 – Midnight Storm – Todd Pletcher – WinStar, CMNWLTH, and Siena Farms, Woodford Thoroughbreds) – Swing Shift was yet another debut winner for Pletcher and the ownership group of WinStar Farms and partners. His win came at Gulfstream on Jan. 29 going seven furlongs. He has two posted workouts since then.

Remaining East Coast Division preps

• Fountain of Youth (G2) – Gulfstream Park – March 5, 50-20-10-5

• Gotham (G3) – Aqueduct – March 5, 50-20-10-5

• Tampa Bay Derby (G2) – Tampa Bay Downs -March 12, 50-20-10-5

• Florida Derby (G1) – Gulfstream Park – April 2, 100-40-20-10

• Wood Memorial (G2) – Aqueduct – April 2, 100-40-20-10