Kentucky Derby 2022: New scenarios after 3 defections

With Forbidden Kingdom and Classic Causeway taken out of consideration Sunday, Zozos and Summer Is Tomorrow moved off the bubble and into the starting gate for Kentucky Derby 2022.

The domino effect sent Charge It and Tawny Port into the top 20 and onto the qualifying bubble. In a typical year, the 40 points each earned for finishing second in their major preps would have clinched them places in the Kentucky Derby. But this is not a typical year.

RELATED: Forbidden Kingdom, Classic Causeway will miss Derby.

Five horses are tied with 40 points each, 16th most among horses still active in the Derby mix. Even with Sunday’s exits, Tawny Port could be bumped next weekend, or he could race his way in when the final prep is run at Keeneland.

The Lexington Stakes (G3) is worth only 20 points to the winner, but that might be enough to make or break Tawny Port. Trainer Brad Cox said Monday on At the Races with Steve Byk that he would wheel the colt back just two weeks after a runner-up result in the Jeff Ruby (G2). A top-four finish Saturday would move Tawny Port to at least 42 points, getting him off the bubble.

In Due Time would get into the Derby with a victory at Keeneland on Saturday. He was listed by the Keeneland racing office as probable to be in the entry box by Wednesday’s deadline.

With his 40 points, Messier is safely into the Derby based on his $390,000 in non-restricted stakes earnings after finishing second as the favorite in the Santa Anita Derby. Including the tiebreaker, he is 16th, and he cannot finish lower than 18th.

Zozos and Summer Is Tomorrow, runners-up in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and UAE Derby (G2), respectively, have 40 points and $200,000 apiece. They, too, are safely in, since no more than two horses from the Lexington can crash the party.

More dropouts could simplify things. Connections might have second thoughts about Morello. Even though he clinched his Derby bid with a March 5 victory in the Gotham (G3), he started poorly Saturday on his way to a sixth-place outcome in the Wood.

Scott Blasi, assistant to trainer Steve Asmussen, said Morello would be shipped to Kentucky on Monday but that it would “be a little early to make any decisions regarding” the Derby.

Emmanuel also was removed from the Derby trail, according to Churchill Downs. Even after the exit of Forbidden Kingdom and Classic Causeway, he still was only 23rd in the standings after his third-place finish Saturday in the Blue Grass (G1).

Following are updated clinch scenarios for the Derby, including probables and possibles for Saturday’s Lexington Stakes as updated by the Keeneland racing office and, in the case of Dash Attack, by trainer Kenny McPeek.