Kentucky Derby 2022: How do the speed figures stack up?

Though by no means the end all and be all of picking winners, speed figures provide a good gauge of the overall talent level of horses in a race. 

Going into last year's Kentucky Derby, the highest Beyer Speed Figure earned during the prep season was a 100 posted by Rock Your World when winning the Santa Anita Derby (G1). This year, Taiba, Messier, and Epicenter – both have topped that mark.

Only four contenders in this year's prospective Derby field have a Beyer Speed Figure within five points of co-tops Taiba and Messier: Epicenter with a 102 and Zandon, Zozos and Simplification, each of whom have a 98 Beyer to their credit.

In last year's Kentucky Derby, Medina Spirit posted a 102 Beyer Speed Figure when crossing the wire first. He later was disqualified for a drug overage and runner-up Mandaloun was promoted to the win. 

[Related: Kentucky Derby 2022: New scenarios after 3 defections]

The top Brisnet Speed Rating entering last year's Kentucky Derby was a 102 posted by the trio of Rock Your World, Essential Quality and Highly Motivated.

This year, five colts already have surpassed a 102: Taiba, Mo Donegal, Early Voting, all with 111s to their credit, as well as Messier (108) and Zandon (103).

Medina Spirit posted a 101 Brisnet Speed Rating in last year's Kentucky Derby. 

Also note that this year's Wood Memorial (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1) came back the strongest of the prep races, based on Brisnet Speed Ratings. Taiba earned a 111 Brisnet rating in winning the Santa Anita Derby, the same number earned by both Mo Donegal and Early Voting, who were separated by just a neck when 1-2 in the Wood. 

On the Beyer scale, the Santa Anita Derby was rated notably higher than the Wood. 

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Below is a closer look at the top Beyer Speed Figure, Brisnet Speed Rating and TimeformUS Speed Figure earned by the 2022 Kentucky Derby contenders.

Note that unlike with Brisnet and Beyer, TimeformUS also takes pace into account when formulating its figures. So it's possible for a horse to earn a number that is higher than a horse who finished ahead. That's the case for this year's Wood Memorial, where pacesetter Early Voting got a slightly higher TimeformUS Speed Figure than Mo Donegal.