Kentucky Derby 2022: Odds and analysis of all 20 horses

The post positions were drawn for the 2022 Kentucky Derby, and the field of 20 is set. Zandon was named the 3-1 morning line favorite after he was assigned gate 10. Ethereal Road, who will start from post 20, was the last horse to get into the race, with only 22 points, and his odds were set at 30-1.

During the points era, the Derby results became remarkably consistent. After success in the 100-point prep races, Derby winners usually raced as part of the early pace, getting clear of traffic problems and bad trips that are so common farther back in the field of 20. Derby winners usually are on the lead with a furlong left in the race and, with most of the field tiring at that point, the leader is hard to pass. A deep closer has not crossed the wire first in the Run for the Roses since 2013, when Orb rallied from 17th to find the winner’s circle. (2019 winner Country House was also a deep closer, though he was elevated to the win after the disqualification of frontrunner Maximum Security for interference. Maximum Security did lead at the furlong mark.)

The field for the Run for the Roses is listed with the official track morning-line odds and includes their Derby points, most recent race result, their highest Beyer Speed Figure courtesy of the Daily Racing Form, and jockey assignments. The Run for the Roses is race slated as race 12 of 14 with post time scheduled for 6:57 p.m. EDT.

1. Mo Donegal (10-1 – 112 – 1st, Wood Memorial (G2) – 96 – Uncle Mo – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz, Jr. – 5: 3-0-2 - $621,800) Mo Donegal closed from last in the 100-point Wood Memorial at Aqueduct to run down the pacesetter. All three of his wins were at New York tracks with a third-place finish in the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park mixed in there. In most of his starts he got away from the gate slowly, which in the Derby means that he will get far behind in the early going and will require lots of racing luck to work out an uneventful trip. Win contender.

2. Happy Jack (30-1 – 30 – 3rd, Santa Anita Derby (G1) – 90 – Oxbow – Doug O’Neill / Rafael Bejarano – 4: 1-0-2 - $182,200) Happy Jack was a debut winner for the West Coast division of Calumet Farm in January at Santa Anita. He picked up Derby points with a pair of thirds on the Derby trail in those small fields in the San Felipe (G2) and the Santa Anita Derby. Toss.

3. Epicenter (7-2 – 164 - 1st, Louisiana Derby (G2) – 102 – Not This Time – Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario – 6: 4-1-0 - $1,010,639) Epicenter gives Steve Asmussen, the winningest trainer in Thoroughbred racing, a chance to finally win the Kentucky Derby. Epicenter used tactical speed to get a victory in the 100-point Louisiana Derby, which gives him the most important characteristics of a winner on the first Saturday in May. The one to beat.

4. Summer Is Tomorrow (30-1 – 40 – 2nd, UAE Derby (G2) – N/A – Summer Front – Bhupat Seemar / Mickael Barzalona – 7: 2-3-0 - $267,606) Summer Is Tomorrow picked up his 40 points with a second in the UAE Derby. He will make his first start in America in the Kentucky Derby. That is a tough task. Toss.

5. Smile Happy (20-1 – 70 – 2nd, Blue Grass (G1) – 94 – Runhappy – Kenny McPeek / Corey Lanerie – 4: 2-2-0 - $549,810) In the Blue Grass, Smile Happy stayed closer to the pace than usual and was able to get the lead in the stretch at Keeneland. He looked like a winner at that point, but he could not hold off the late run by Zandon. Smile Happy looked washed out in the post parade for that race, and he has continued to look that way during Derby training in cool mornings at Churchill. Horses need to be at 100 percent to be competitive in the Derby. Toss.

6. Messier (8-1 – 40 – 2nd, Santa Anita Derby (G1) – 103 – Empire Maker – Tim Yakteen / John Velazquez – 6: 3-3-0 - $435,600) Messier finished first or second in all six of his starts, including the Santa Anita Derby. In all of those races, he was part of the pace, either pressing the leader or stalking just a few lengths from behind the front. He was run down by Taiba last out after getting the lead in the stretch. Messier never ran in a field larger than six, so his success depends on his securing a position near the front in the early going. The 10-furlong distance will not be a problem for the son of Empire Maker, and he has the look of a Derby horse that could carve out 24-second quarters for the entire race and the might be enough to find the winner’s circle.  Top choice.

7. Crown Pride (20-1 – 100 – 1st, UAE Derby – N/A – Reach the Crown (JPN) – Koichi Shintani / Christophe Lemaire – 4: 3-0-0 - $734,569) Historically, the winners of the 100-point UAE Derby have not found success on the first Saturday in May. To his credit, Japanese runners have recently been impactful on big stages such as the Breeders’ Cup on turf and dirt. Still, I was burned too many times in the Derby by the horse coming from the UAE points race. Toss.

8. Charge It (20-1 – 40 – 2nd, Florida Derby (G1) – 93 – Tapit – Todd Pletcher / Luis Saez  – 3: 1-2-0 - $230,400) The lightly raced grey colt picked up his qualifying points when he finished second in the Florida Derby from a stalking position after racing greenly down the stretch while not being able to keep a straight path. As a promising Todd Pletcher trainee, Charge It is likely to attract more than his share of attention at the betting windows. The 20-horse field of the Derby is not an ideal spot for a horse that might be lacking in needed racing experience. Toss.

9. Tiz the Bomb (30-1 – 110 – 1st, Jeff Ruby (G3) – 94 – Hit It a Bomb – Kenny McPeek / Brian Hernandez, Jr. – 8: 5-1-0 - $1,044,401) Heading into 2022, Tiz the Bomb was not the McPeek 3-year-old who was expected to win a 100-point race on the Derby trail, but he did it in the Jeff Ruby on the Tapeta at Turfway Park. Tiz the Bomb has wins on dirt, turf and synthetic. He also was second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. That makes him the leading money winner in the field on the first Saturday in May. I have seen his name mentioned as a contender in a lot of pre-Kentucky Derby chatter. Live long shot.

10. Zandon (3-1 – 114 – 1st, Blue Grass – 98 – Upstart – Chad Brown / Flavien Prat – 4: 2-1-1 - $713,000) Zandon got a 100-point victory in the Blue Grass when he rallied from last in an 11-horse field and drew off to win by more than two lengths. In his other two Derby preps, he had less than ideal trips and finished second and third. Chad Brown, who has four Eclipse Awards for outstanding trainer, also looks for his first Derby win. Zandon will need to buck the current trend of Derby winners pressing the pace and get an ideal trip while trying to rally from behind. He will get lots of support from the betting public. Win contender.

11. Pioneer of Medina (30-1 – 25 – 3rd, Louisiana Derby – Pioneerof the Nile – Todd Pletcher/ Joe Bravo – 6: 2-1-2 - $181,350) Trainer Todd Pletcher sent Pioneer of Medina to Fair Grounds to try to qualify for the Derby, and he ran into very tough competition while racing in the longest prep races. The fourth in the Risen Star (G2) and the third in the Louisiana Derby gave him just enough points to secure the final spot in the field. Pioneer of Medina is yet another of these 3-year-olds who prefer to run forwardly placed, and there isn’t room for all of them. Toss.

12. Taiba (12-1 – 100 – 1st, Santa Anita Derby – 103 – Gun Runner – Tim Yakteen / Mike Smith – 2: 2-0-0 - $490,200) In only his second career start, Taiba sat behind the pace and then passed the favorites to win the 100-point Santa Anita Derby. With two-time Kentucky Derby winning jockey Mike Smith in the saddle, Taiba has the traits of past Derby winners from California. His detractors will note his lack of experience and the fact that he beat a field of seven and then six in his only two starts. Win contender.

13. Simplification (20-1 – 74 – 3rd, Florida Derby – 96 – Not This Time – Antonio Sano / Jose Ortiz – 7: 3-1-2 - $515,350) Simplification found success racing from a stalking position and from the front end. In the Florida Derby he dueled for the lead and got there, but then he was caught nearing the wire. His best race was in the Fountain of Youth (G2) when he sat in a stalking position and then rallied wide for the win. His tactical speed will help him to secure a safe, early position in the Derby. Live long shot.

14. Barber Road (30-1 – 58 – 2nd, Arkansas Derby (G1) – 88 – Race Day – John Ortiz / Reylu Gutierrez – 8: 2-4-1 - $650,720) Barber Road ran in all four of the Derby preps at Oaklawn Park, getting points in all of them. He has earned a lot of money with his competitive late stretch runs, but those races will be a far cry from the big field in the Run for the Roses. His last win was in November at Churchill in a starter allowance. Superfecta finish possible.

15. White Abarrio (10-1 – 112 – 1st, Florida Derby – 97 – Race Day – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Tyler Gaffalione – 5: 4-0-1 - $823,650) White Abarrio won four times at Gulfstream Park, including two races on the Derby trail. In the 100-point Florida Derby, he sat a couple of lengths behind the pacesetter and took control of the race at the stretch call and increased his advantage from there. White Abarrio has the right running style for success in the Derby. Critics will note that his lone loss came at Churchill Downs, but he did not have an ideal trip in his first try in a stakes race. He has the right resume for Derby success. Use underneath.

16. Cyberknife (20-1 – 100 – 1st, Arkansas Derby – 92 – Gun Runner - Brad Cox / Florent Geroux – 6: 3-2-0 - $860,000) Cyberknife burst on the Derby scene when he closed to win the 100-point Arkansas Derby. Trainer Brad Cox has talked about how this son of Gun Runner has tons of talent but is mentally immature. The Arkansas Derby field was not as good as in recent years. Facing a field of 20 and a crowd of 150,000 people might not be an ideal setting for Cyberknife, but he is Brad Cox’s top Derby horse. That makes it hard to not expect him to show his best. Hard to ignore.

17. Classic Causeway (30-1 – 66 – 11th, Florida Derby – 90 - Giant’s Causeway – Brian Lynch / Julien Leparoux – 6: 3-1-1 - $521,100) Classic Causeway returned to the Derby field when the owners decided they wanted to run in the big race. He dominated the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and the Sam F. Davis (G3) but then faded badly in the Florida Derby after setting the pace. Toss.

18. Tawny Port (30-1 – 60 – 1st, Lexington (G3) – 90 – Pioneerof the Nile – Brad Cox / Ricardo Santana Jr. – 5: 3-1-0 - $427,000) Tawny Port locked up his place in the Derby when he won the Lexington at Keeneland with a late rally. That win on the dirt also confirmed that he is more than a Tapeta specialist since his prior best efforts were at Turfway Park. The Run for the Roses will be his third start in a month, but Cox certainly has this guy in fine form. Use underneath.

19. Zozos (20-1 – 40 – 2nd, Louisiana Derby – 98 – Munnings – Brad Cox / Manny Franco – 3: 2-1-0 - $291,200) Running second in the Louisiana Derby behind Epicenter in only his third start was certainly a noteworthy performance for Zozos, especially after setting the pace in that 1 3/16-mile race. He prefers to press the pace and already has shown the ability to handle distance. You just cannot discount a horse like this from the Brad Cox barn. Use underneath.

20. Ethereal Road (30-1 – 22 – 4th, Lexington – 83 – Quality Road – D. Wayne Lukas / Luis Contreras – 7: 1-1-1 - $294,545) Trainer D. Wayne Lukas got his 50th Derby runner when Ethereal Road became the last horse to get into the field. The son of Quality Road had the lead in the stretch of the Rebel but was run down by long shot Un Ojo. His subsequent two starts were not up to that level, with a fourth in the Lexington and a seventh in the Blue Grass. The Derby will be the third start in less than a month for Ethereal Road, who just has not run fast enough to be a contender. Toss.

Also-eligibles:

AE21. Rich Strike (30-1 – 21 – 3rd, Jeff Ruby – Keen Ice – Eric Reed / Sonny Leon – 7: 1-0-3 - $111,289)

AE22. Rattle N Roll (30-1 – 20 – 6th, Blue Grass (G1) – Connect – Kenny McPeek / James Graham – 7: 2-0-1 - $435,960)

Summary: Whether you plan to bet the Kentucky Derby to win, in multi-race wagers, or in the trifecta and superfecta, tough decisions have to be made. Unless you have an unlimited bankroll, you cannot use every horse you think has a realistic chance.

One of my preferred Derby wagers is the trifecta because the 50-cent base allows me the chance to build larger tickets that can produce big payouts. The key horse in the trifecta will be Simplification, who comes with morning-line odds of 20-1. I will key him in the second and third positions with seven or eight others.

The other is the two-day Daily Double with the Kentucky Oaks and Derby. In the Oaks, it is hard to imagine that the winner will not come from the formidable quartet of Secret Oath, Nest, and the unbeaten Echo Zulu and Kathleen O. I’ll use those four fillies with Messier. Regardless of the winning horses, a daily double from 14- and 20-horse fields pays well.

For a more detailed explanation of the tickets, watch this week’s edition of HorseCenter, which will be posted on Wednesday morning.