Kentucky Derby 2022: Early full-field odds and analysis

The road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby began on Sept. 18, 2021, and ended on April 16, 2022, with 37 prep races that carried qualifying points. Seventeen days ahead of the Run for the Roses, 25 is the number of points required to get in the starting gate.

During the points era, Derby results became remarkably consistent. After success in the 100-point prep races, Derby winners usually raced as part of the early pace, getting clear of traffic problems that are so common farther back in the field of 20. A deep closer has not won the Run for the Roses since 2013, when Orb rallied from 17th to find the winner’s circle.

The projected field, as it currently stands, includes 20 horses that are listed in order of Horse Racing Nation morning-line odds. Also shown are their Derby points, most recent race result, highest Beyer Speed Figure, courtesy of the Daily Racing Form, and possible jockey assignments.

Epicenter (4-1 – 164 – 1st, Louisiana Derby (G2) – 102 – Not This Time – Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario – 6: 4-1-0 - $1,010,639) Epicenter gives Steve Asmussen, the winningest trainer in the history of Thoroughbred racing, a chance to win the Kentucky Derby for the first time. Epicenter used tactical speed to get a victory in the 100-point Louisiana Derby, which gives him the most important characteristic of a winner on the first Saturday in May. The one to beat.

Zandon (5-1 – 114 - 1st, Blue Grass (G1) - 98 – Upstart – Chad Brown / Flavien Prat – 4: 2-1-1 - $713,000) Zandon got a 100-point victory in the Blue Grass when he rallied from last in an 11-horse field and drew off to win by more than two lengths. In his other two Derby preps, he had less than ideal trips and finished second and third. Chad Brown, who has four Eclipse awards for outstanding trainer, also looks for his first Derby win. Zandon will need to buck the current trend of Derby winners pressing the pace and get an ideal trip while trying to rally from behind. He will get lots of support from the betting public. Win contender

Taiba (6-1 – 100 - 1st Santa Anita Derby (G1) - 103 – Gun Runner – Tim Yakteen / Mike Smith – 2: 2-0-0 - $490,200) In only his second career start, Taiba sat behind the pace and then passed the favorites to win the 100-point Santa Anita Derby. With two-time Kentucky Derby winning jockey Mike Smith in the saddle, Taiba has the traits of past Derby winners from California. His detractors will note his lack of experience and the fact that he beat a field of seven and then six in his only two starts. Win contender.

Messier (10-1 – 40 - 2nd, Santa Anita Derby (G1) – 103 – Empire Maker – Tim Yakteen / John Velazquez – 6: 3-3-0 - $435,600) Messier finished first or second in all six of his starts, including the Santa Anita Derby. In all of those races, he was part of the pace, either pressing the leader or stalking a few lengths from behind the front. He was run down by Taiba after getting the lead in the stretch. Messier never ran in field larger than six, so his success depends on his securing a position near the front in the early going. Win contender

Mo Donegal (10-1 – 112 - 1st, Wood Memorial (G2) – 96 – Uncle Mo – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz, Jr. – 5: 3-0-2 - $621,800) Mo Donegal closed from last in the 100-point Wood Memorial at Aqueduct to run down the pacesetter. All three of his wins were at New York tracks with a third in the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park among them. In most of his starts he got away from the gate slowly, which in the Derby means that he will get far behind in the early going and will require lots of racing luck to work out an uneventful trip. Win contender.

Smile Happy (15-1 – 70 – 2nd, Blue Grass (G1) – 94 – Runhappy – Kenny McPeek / Corey Lanerie – 4: 2-2-0 - $549,810) In the Blue Grass, Smile Happy stayed closer to the pace than usual and was able to get the lead in the stretch at Keeneland. He looked like a winner at that point but ultimately, he could not hold off the late run by Zandon. In his four-race career, Smile Happy never finished worse than second. It is likely that in the Derby he will be in the second flight of horses.Use underneath.

White Abarrio (15-1 – 112 – 1st, Florida Derby (G1) - 97 – Race Day – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Tyler Gaffalione – 5: 4-0-1 - $823,650) White Abarrio won four times at Gulfstream Park, including two races on the Derby trail. In the 100-point Florida Derby, he sat a couple of lengths behind the pacesetter and took control of the race at the stretch call and increased his advantage from there. White Abarrio has the right running style for success in the Derby. Critics will note that his lone loss came at Churchill Downs, but he did not have an ideal trip in his first try in a stakes race. He has the right resume for Derby success. Win contender.

Charge It (20-1 – 40 – 2nd, Florida Derby (G1) – 93 – Tapit – Todd Pletcher / Luis Saez – 3: 1-2-0 - $230,400) The lightly raced grey colt picked up his qualifying points when he finished second in the Florida Derby from a stalking position after racing greenly down the stretch while not being able to keep a straight path. As a promising Todd Pletcher trainee, Charge It is likely to attract more than his share of attention at the betting windows. The 20-horse field of the Derby is not an ideal spot for a horse that might be lacking in needed racing experience. Toss.

Cyberknife (20-1 – 100 – 1st, Arkansas Derby (G1) – 92 – Gun Runner - Brad Cox / Florent Geroux – 6: 3-2-0 - $860,000) Cyberknife burst on the Derby scene when he closed to win the 100-point Arkansas Derby. Trainer Brad Cox has talked about how this son of Gun Runner has tons of talent but is mentally immature. The Arkansas Derby field was not as good as in recent years. Facing a field of 20 and a crowd of 150,000 people might not be an ideal setting for Cyberknife. Toss.

Early Voting (20-1 - 50 – 2nd, Wood Memorial (G2) – 96 – Gun Runner – Chad Brown / TBD – 3: 2-1-0 - $321,500) There is still a significant chance that Early Voting will skip the Derby and prepare for the Preakness. In the Wood Memorial, Early Voting set the pace but was passed by Mo Donegal in the final strides. The 10-furlong Derby distance might be asking too much too soon, but in the Preakness there is less distance and a smaller field. Preakness may be next.

Simplification 20-1 - 74 – 3rd, Florida Derby (G1) – 96 – Not This Time – Antonio Sano / Jose Ortiz – 7: 3-1-2 - $515,350) Simplification found success racing from a stalking position and from the front end. In the Florida Derby he dueled for the lead, got there, but then was caught nearing the wire. His best race was in the Fountain of Youth (G2) when he sat in a stalking position and then rallied wide for the win on the Derby trail. His tactical speed will help him to secure a safe, early position in the Derby. Live long shot.

Tiz the Bomb (20-1 – 110 - 1st, Jeff Ruby (G3) – 94 – Hit It a Bomb – Kenny McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 8: 5-1-0 - $1,044,401) Heading into 2022, Tiz the Bomb was not the McPeek 3-year-old that was expected to win a 100-point race on the Derby trail, but he did it in the Jeff Ruby on the Tepeta at Turfway Park. Tiz the Bomb has wins on dirt, turf and synthetic. He also was second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. That makes him the leading money winner in the field on the first Saturday in May. I have seen his name mentioned as a contender in a lot of pre-Kentucky Derby chatter. Live long shot.

Zozos (20-1 – 40 - 2nd, Louisiana Derby (G2) - 98 – Munnings – Brad Cox / Florent Geroux – 3: 2-1-0 - $291,200) Running second in the Louisiana Derby behind Epicenter in just his third start was certainly a noteworthy performance for Zozos, especially after setting the pace in that 1 3/16-mile race. He prefers to press the pace and already has shown the ability to handle distance. You just cannot discount a horse like this from the Brad Cox barn. Use underneath.

Barber Road (30-1 – 58 – 2nd, Arkansas Derby (G1) – 88 – Race Day – John Ortiz / Reylu Gutierrez – 8: 2-4-1 - $650,720) Barber Road ran in all four of the Derby preps at Oaklawn Park, getting points in all of them. He’s earned a lot of money with his competitive late stretch runs, but those races will be a far cry from the big field in the Run for the Roses. His last win was in November at Churchill in a starter allowance. Toss.

Crown Pride (30-1 – 100 – 1st, UAE Derby (G1) – N/A – Reach the Crown (JPN) – Koichi / Christophe Lemaire – 4: 3-0-0 - $734,569) Historically, the winners of the 100-point UAE Derby have not found success on the first Saturday in May. To his credit, Japanese runners recently have been impactful on big stages such as the Breeders’ Cup. Still, I was burned too many times in the Derby by the horse coming from the Meydan prep race. Toss.

Morello (30-1 – 50 – 6th, Wood Memorial (G2) – 96 – Classic Empire – Steve Asmussen / Jose Lezcano – 4: 3-0-0 - $286,500) Morello had his perfect record broken when he had gate trouble in the Wood Memorial and was then unable to establish his usual position pressing the pace. He had not run beyond a mile before the Wood, so questions about his ability to handle more distance were left unanswered. Asmussen has yet to make a firm commitment about Morello running in the Derby. Toss.

Tawny Port (30-1 – 60 – 1st, Lexington (G3) – 90 – Pioneerof the Nile – Brad Cox / Florent Geroux – 5: 3-1-0 - $427,000) Tawny Port locked up his place in the Derby when he won the Lexington at Keeneland with a late rally. That win on the dirt also confirmed that he is more than a Tapeta specialist; his prior best efforts were at Turfway Park. The Run for the Roses will be his third start in a month, but Cox certainly has this guy in fine form. Use underneath.

Un Ojo (40-1 – 54 - 8th Arkansas Derby (G1) – 84 - Laoban – Ricky Courville / Ramon Vasquez – 7: 2-2-0 - $782,571) Un Ojo was the 75-1 winner of the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park with a rally up the rail. In the Arkansas Derby, the one-eyed horse got banged up badly in tight quarters on the rail and lost all chance. Navigating a safe trip in the Kentucky Derby is not easy for any late runner, but with limited vision Un Ojo is going to be hampered. Toss.

Summer Is Tomorrow (50-1 – 40 – 2nd, UAE Derby (G1) – N/A – Summer Front – Bhupat Seemar / Mickael Barzalona – 7: 2-3-0 - $267,606) Summer Is Tomorrow picked up his 40 points with a second in the UAE Derby. He will make his first start in America in the Kentucky Derby. That is a tough task. Toss.

Happy Jack (50-1 – 30 – 3rd Santa Anita Derby (G1) – 90 – Oxbow – Doug O’Neill / Rafael Bejarano – 4: 1-0-2 - $182,200) Happy Jack was a debut winner for the West Coast division of Calumet Farm in January at Santa Anita. He picked up Derby points with a pair of thirds on the Derby trail in those small fields in the San Felipe (G2) and the Santa Anita Derby. Toss.

Next 3 in the field (ordered by points):

Pioneer of Medina (20-1 – 25 – 3rd, Louisiana Derby (G2) – Pioneerof the Nile – Todd Pletcher/ Luis Saez – 6: 2-1-2 - $181,350)

In Due Time (50-1 – 24 – 3rd, Lexington (G3 – 92 – Not This Time – Kelly Breen / Paco Lopez – 5: 2-1-2 - $187,180)

Ethereal Road (50-1 – 22 - 4th, Lexington (G3) – 83 – Quality Road – D. Wayne Lukas / Victor Espinoza – 7: 1-1-1 - $294,545)

Summary: In a Kentucky Derby year when the favorite is likely to be at least 4-1 and recent history says to put your money on a horse with a victory in a 100-point prep race who will be forwardly placed, I will enthusiastically make Epicenter my early pick.

The Steve Asmussen trainee dominated the Fair Grounds Derby prep races, showing the ability to win on the lead or from a stalking position. Epicenter proved that the 1 1/4-mile distance of the Derby will not be a problem when he won the Louisiana Derby.

With a field of 20, bettors will have to make tough decisions as they await the final entries and then the post-position draw on Monday, May 2.