Kentucky Derby 2021: Expert picks
The 147th Kentucky Derby is set for Saturday evening, carded as the twelfth race at Churchill Downs with an approximate post time of 6:57 p.m. EDT.
Ahead of the race, Horse Racing Nation contributors weighed in with their picks. In coming to your own conclusions, check out free past performances for the race.
Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace
Winner: #15 Rock Your World
On the board: #8 Medina Spirit
Longshot I like: #10 Midnight Bourbon
Analysis: With the modern Kentucky Derby favoring speed, it makes sense to choose the best speed horses. Rock Your World owns the highest TimeformUS Speed Figure in the race at 124, as well as high pace figures of 148 and 148 on his way to winning the Santa Anita Derby. Medina Spirit ran a pair of 151 pace figures before winning the Robert B. Lewis Stakes with a 117. The strategy is to use Rock Your World and Medina Spirit on top in exacta wheels with Midnight Bourbon and Highly Motivated also added alongside them in the second slots.
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Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner
Winner: #15 Rock Your World
On the board: #10 Midnight Bourbon
Longshot I like: #8 Medina Spirit
Analysis: Rock Your World has done little wrong in a short period of time. Winning his first two races on turf, he switched to dirt and won the Santa Anita Derby in style. Wire to wire, his gallop-out impressed me most, they could gone around again and they still wouldn't catch him. His five-furlong workout last week was sharp and points that he's ready. He has sharp speed but can rate from the outside. Joel Rosario back aboard, Rock Your World has a big chance. Midnight Bourbon hasn't been worse than 3rd in his racing career, he won the Lecomte wire to wire but has been able to come off the pace. He's got good speed and the distance should fit him, he'll be there turning for home, big chance. Medina Spirit has never been worse than 2nd in 5 starts, he is a tough horse to pass and he is a contender to get to the front early on, he won the Robert B. Lewis going wire to wire over Hot Rod Charlie, he will have to be quick out of the gate, but if he gets to the lead, look out.
Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power
Winner: #15 Rock Your World
On the board: #14 Essential Quality
Longshot I like: #9 Hot Rod Charlie
Analysis: Three-horse exactas for conservative bets, $1 key supers for fun.
Jarrod Horak, Best Bets
Winner: #9 Hot Rod Charlie
On the board: #14 Essential Quality
Longshot I like: #6 O Besos
Analysis: I have been a fan of Essential Quality since day one and he is the deserving favorite, but Hot Rod Charlie is my value top choice. The latter is versatile with a nice route foundation and his races are perfectly spaced, just like Doug O'Neill's other two Derby winners. O Besos is an improving closer and might be able to spice up the exotics.
Laura Pugh, Dueling Down the Stretch
Winner: #1 Known Agenda
On the board: #17 Highly Motivated
Longshot I like: #2 Like the King, #18 Super Stock
Analysis:The one post is much less intimidating with the new gate and very little speed to the immediate outside. This will help Known Agenda, as will the quick pace likely to cause a meltdown.
Chad Brown says he wants to see Highly Motivated sit a little off the pace this time, which should help him last a little longer if the pace is quick.
Like The King and Super Stock have great styles to take advantage of a pace meltdown. The latter showed that he is very dangerous with that type of scenario in his Arkansas Derby win. Like the King gives me Dullahan/Animal Kingdom vibes.
How to Crush the Kentucky Derby 2021 Superfecta
Victor Ryan
Winner: #1 Known Agenda
On the board: #9 Hot Rod Charlie, #15 Rock Your World
Longshot I like: #10 Midnight Bourbon
Analysis: Irad Ortiz Jr. will have to work out a trip from post No. 1 aboard Known Agenda. The Todd Pletcher colt did successfully race inside of horses in the Florida Derby, and Churchill's new 20-horse starting gate appears to be a bit more kind to the inside stall.
Wagers: Win #1. Trifecta key box: 1 w/ 9,10,15
Ron Flatter
Winner: #14 Essential Quality
On the board: #17 Highly Motivate
Longshot I like: #5 Sainthood
Analysis: Mattress Mack's $2 million bet will assure us that there is no value on Essential Quality, except that part that a winning ticket is the ultimate value. If Highly Motivated does not have to do the heavy lifting to set the pace the way he did in the Blue Grass, he could pull off the upset stalking the pace. Having outworked Known Agenda in a recent breeze, a much improved Sainthood is most likely to crash the exacta.
Candice Curtis
Winner: #1 Known Agenda
On the board: #14 Essential Quality
Longshot I like: #10 Midnight Bourbon
Analysis: Toughest Derby in years! I've liked Known Agenda since his Florida Derby win and think we can only move forward off that effort. The 1 post doesn't worry me as much since he has shown ability in a tight spot before. With all speed on the outside and deep closers around him, I think he can get a clear path into the first turn. Essential Quality has proven to be tractable and does well from the outside, but I just think post 14 is too far out for him, especially with the speed drawn outside him. He's still the champ, though an on-the-board finish is very likely. I'll have some Win bets on Midnight Bourbon, Rock Your World and Highly Motivated, but my EX & TRI bets will be based around #1 & #14. Add late runners #5 Sainthood and #18 Super Stock underneath.
Mark Midland
Winner: #1 Known Agenda
On the board: #14 Essential Quality
Longshot I like: #6 O Besos
Analysis: This race is top-heavy with the favorites having a distinct advantage, but you can make money if we can get a price in third.
Wagers: $.50 Trifecta 1,9,14,15,17 with 1,9,14,15,17,19 with 6,11,19 = $35.
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