Kentucky Derby 2020 trail takeaways at a stopping point

With split divisions of the Arkansas Derby (G1) run, it feels like a stopping point on the 2020 Kentucky Derby trail. From here, we’ll break tradition leading up to the Sept. 5 race at Churchill Downs with plenty already learned along the way.

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Quality speed rules

Bob Baffert has often called it “California speed” the way 3-year-olds from out west like to get out front, cruise and manage to stay there. Many of them, not so coincidentally, hail from the Hall of Famer’s barn.

That style was on full display in the Arkansas Derby as Nadal rated just off the pace in the tougher of two divisions minutes after Charlatan sent from an inside post position, going gate to wire. The performances answered some key questions after this season's other major preps were won on or near the lead.

There’s a difference between an uncontested lead such as Ete Indien enjoyed in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Wells Bayou achieved in the Louisiana Derby (G2) — and what Nadal had soldiered through when going all the way in the Rebel Stakes (G2), absorbing a number of challenges.

Normally, the cheaper sort speed would be exposed on the first Saturday in May -- bigger field, a tougher set up and plenty of pressure up front. Now, we’re left in a unique situation four months out from the Derby. The Wells Bayous of the crop may be a rung below the best of the crop but already have the points to run in September. Will they still try the Derby?

No one way to do it

Aside from Baffert’s big names, there’s Florida Derby (G1) winner Tiz the Law at the top of the class. His connections elected to sit out the Arkansas Derby, awaiting a potential resumption of racing in New York.

Tiz the Law’s potential path to the Derby is quite unconventional: speculation surrounds the Belmont Stakes potentially runing at 1 1/8 miles in late June, followed by the Travers Stakes (G1) backing up to early August.

Similarly, Baffert offered unbeaten San Felipe Stakes (G2) winner Authentic a recent spring break of sorts. The Santa Anita Derby (G1) is back in the condition book for June 6, allowing time afterward for three races total before the Derby.

Baffert, however, says he’ll put the “bubble wrap” on Arkansas Derby winners Nadal and Charlatan, showing there’s no one way trainers are approaching the run up to September. It will only become apparent after this unique Kentucky Derby trail concludes which method proved best.

Importance of the Triple Crown

Moving forward, it looks like a lot of racing will be crammed into a small window this summer. That’s especially if Keeneland manages to stage a short meet including the Blue Grass Stakes (G2), while the Haskell (G1) is on the calendar for July 18. Those are in addition to the Travers and a scattering of midwest derbies in Indiana, Ohio and elsewhere.

Where we’re going with that is, if the Belmont Stakes kicks off the Triple Crown series, there will be an abundance of spots for top 3-year-olds to run as an alternative to gathering up in the classics.

Will there be a Triple Crown formally offered in this unique season? Should there be one? Wouldn’t any horse to win each of the Belmont, Derby and Preakness Stakes — in that order, perhaps — carry an asterisk when compared to 13 greats of the past?

Once Churchill sets its extended Derby points preps calendar, expect conversation to turn to the legitimacy of a Triple Crown in 2020. It drives the sport in many ways, but it should also remain sacred.

The antithesis of a key race

Just two of eight contenders in last November’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita Park have won since then — Shoplifted when cutting back in the Remington Springboard Mile and Full Flat in the Saudi Derby.

The dueling 1-2 finishers, Storm the Court and Anneau d’Or, have been competitive in other spots but more recently were defeated by better newcomers in the division. They no longer look like Derby hopefuls.

Meanwhile, Dennis’ Moment and Eight Rings flopped in their 3-year-old debuts. There’s reason to believe both are better, however, than they ran, with Dennis’ Moment eased in the Fountain of Youth (G2) before Eight Rings was out of the picture in a sprint.

Certainly don’t trust either at the betting window next time, but keep them on the Derby watch lists. If this were a traditional run up to the first Saturday in May, we'd have just passed the new year.

Two X-factors

Maxfield would have run in that Breeders’ Cup Juvenile were it not for an injury discovered the week of the race. Will he return with the same sort of Grade 1-winning talent after surgery to remove an ankle chip?

The Derby trail resumes May 23 with Churchill Downs’ Matt Winn Stakes (G3), newly added as a 10-4-2-1 points prep. The numbers won’t matter as much for Maxfield as a show of progress. With a nice performance, he could go on to a major summer race pending additions to the national stakes schedule.

After the Matt Winn, Honor A. P. gets another shot in the Santa Anita Derby assuming they’re back racing in southern California. The Honor Code colt has raced just once since breaking his maiden last fall, running a promising second to Authentic in the San Felipe. The reserved trainer John Shirreffs is high on Honor A. P., who benefits from added time before the Derby.

A pair of lesser-known names to keep an eye on? Michael Stidham-trained Mystic Guide looked like the real deal when breaking his maiden last out at Fair Grounds, while Todd Pletcher’s Money Moves has already advanced through an allowance condition. Both look fit for the trail.