Kentucky Derby 2020 guide: Odds, picks and analysis
We’ve finally made it.
Sixteen months after Country House was declared winner of the 2019 Kentucky Derby, six months after Churchill Downs announced the 2020 Derby would be postponed and four months after the First Saturday in May, today is Derby Day.
The 2020 Kentucky Derby is set for a 7:01 p.m. EDT post time Saturday under the Twin Spires. Sixteen 3-year-olds are scheduled to contest the 146th Run for the Roses, which – like so many other events in 2020 – will be run behind closed doors.
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Tiz the Law is the one to beat. The four-time Grade 1 winner is undefeated in 2020 and could be the first even-money post-time Kentucky Derby favorite since Arazi in 1992.
Tiz the Law will have to top the California trio of Authentic, Honor A. P. and Thousand Words. Max Player, Money Moves and Ny Traffic are among other contenders who have been bet down from their morning line odds.
Here’s a look at the full field, with odds current as of 8:30 a.m. Saturday:
2. Max Player (Steve Asmussen, Ricardo Santana Jr.), 15-1
3. Enforceable (Mark Casse, Adam Beschizza), 22-1
4. Storm the Court (Peter Eurton, Julien Leparoux), 21-1
5. Major Fed (Greg Foley, James Graham), 29-1
7. Money Moves (Todd Pletcher, Javier Castellano), 14-1
8. South Bend (Bill Mott, Tyler Gaffalione), 32-1
9. Mr. Big News (Bret Calhoun, Gabriel Saez), 40-1
10. Thousand Words (Bob Baffert, Florent Geroux), 10-1
11. Necker Island (Chris Hartman, Miguel Mena), 37-1
12. Sole Volante (Patrick Biancone, Luca Panici), 25-1
13. Attachment Rate (Dale Romans, Joe Talamo), 38-1
14. Winning Impression (Dallas Stewart, Joe Rocco Jr.), 39-1
15. Ny Traffic (Saffie Joseph Jr., Paco Lopez), 16-1
16. Honor A. P. (John Shirreffs, Mike Smith), 8-1
17. Tiz the Law (Barclay Tagg, Manny Franco), 6-5
18. Authentic (Bob Baffert, John Velazquez), 9-1
Timeform US’ pace projections show jockey John Velazquez moving Authentic all the way over from the far outside post to set a fast pace. Money Moves, Ny Traffic and Storm the Court are projected to press the leader.
Curiously, the Timeform US projection shows Tiz the Law sitting eighth early on, which is farther back than we have seen. Max Player, Sole Volante and South Bend are all expected to sit far off the pace and attempt a late closing move.
Check out free PPs from our friends at Brisnet for more information on the Kentucky Derby’s 16 runners.
Kentucky Derby on TV
NBC will carry five hours of coverage Saturday from Churchill Downs, starting at 2:30 p.m. The network’s broadcast window includes seven stakes races, culminating in the Kentucky Derby.
Jerry Bailey, Randy Moss, Eddie Olczyk and Mike Tirico are scheduled to provide off-site coverage for NBC. Donna Brothers, Brittney Eurton, Laffit Pincay III and Kenny Rice will all report live from Churchill Downs, along with race caller Larry Collmus.
Fox Sports 1 will show the first six races of Saturday’s Churchill Downs card during its Saratoga Live program, with Fox Sports 2 showing the seventh race before NBC’s coverage begins.
Kentucky Derby analysis
Most of the Horse Racing Nation staff agrees that Tiz the Law will be tough to defeat, but a few are going make the attempt. See how HRN’s experts are betting the Kentucky Derby.
Reinier Macatangay takes a deep dive in the Kentucky Derby’s pace. He says that Tiz the Law needs to use his early speed to stay in range and work out a similar trip to what he enjoyed last out in the Travers (G1).
Mike Smith and John Velazquez, both with two Kentucky Derby triumphs apiece, are the only jockeys in the 2020 field who have won this event. Javier Castellano, Manny Franco and Tyler Gaffalione are among notable riders going for their first Derby win Saturday.
Bryan Brinkmeyer examines points-era Kentucky Derby trends in sorting through contenders for the race’s 2020 edition. Tiz the Law checks the same boxes as recent winners.
Thousand Words went through a midseason lull, but showed a return to prior form in his final Kentucky Derby prep. Now he will try to earn Albaugh Family Stables their first Derby victory.
See how some of racing’s most prominent handicappers and television analysts are playing the Kentucky Derby. Several of them see Max Player as a live long shot.
Churchill Downs on Thursday published “A Message to Our Community.” The track defended its decision to run the 2020 Kentucky Derby “in the belief that traditions can remind us of what binds us together as Americans, even as we seek to acknowledge and repair the terrible pain that rends us apart.”
Honor A. P. beat Authentic to the wire in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), but then took an unexpected loss in the Shared Belief Stakes. Trainer John Shirreffs says the colt wasn’t completely cranked up for that race but that he is for the Kentucky Derby.
In the last nine Kentucky Derbys where the favorite won, the $1 superfecta payout was still more than $7,500.
For more Kentucky Derby wagering opportunities, check out some of the prop bets that are available.
Looking to go in-depth on the Kentucky Derby? Check out this handicapping webinar featuring Ron Flatter, Mark Midland, Scott Shapiro, Mike Shutty and Churchill Downs track announcer Travis Stone.
Laura Pugh analyzes which Kentucky Derby horses have been working best. She thinks a pair of double-digit prices, Enforceable and Ny Traffic, make intriguing longshots.
While 16 3-year-olds will go postward Saturday in the Kentucky Derby, there are plenty of notable names missing the race. From Art Collector and Caracaro and Charlatan and Nadal, take a look at former buzz horses who will not be racing this weekend at Churchill.
Matt Shifman examines every step of Tiz the Law’s journey to racking up 372 Kentucky Derby qualifying points – a record that, barring another future 2020-like postponement, will likely never be broken.
Kentucky Derby card
First post Saturday is 11 a.m. EDT, with full Churchill Downs entries available via HRN. Here is a look at the card’s six other graded stakes, courtesy of the NTRA:
2:55 p.m. – $500,000 American Turf Stakes (G2), NBC
Multiple stakes winners Field Pass and Smooth Like Strait top a field of eight entered for the American Turf. Three Diamonds Farm’s Field Pass, a two-time Grade 3 winner, comes into Saturday’s race off a seventh-place finish in the Saratoga Derby Invitational. Prior to that, he had won the Transylvania (G3) at Keeneland and the Audubon at Churchill Downs.
3:35 p.m. – $500,000 Pat Day Mile Stakes (G2), NBC
Echo Town and Rushie head a field of eight for the Pat Day Mile. Trained by Steve Asmussen, Echo Town comes into Saturday’s race off a 3¼-length victory in the Allen Jerkens (G1) at Saratoga on Aug. 1. Rushie, third in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2), cuts back to a one-turn race for the first time since his debut last October.
4:07 p.m. – $200,000 Iroquois Stakes (G3), NBC
The Road to the 2021 Kentucky Derby will begin Saturday afternoon when 10 2-year-olds go to the post for the Iroquois. The Iroquois offers 17 points toward the 2021 Run for the Roses on a 10-4-2-1 scale to the top four finishers. Topping the entries is Stephen Fidel’s Therideofalifetime, runner-up in the Saratoga Special (G2) in his most recent start. Trained by Ignacio Correas IV, Therideofalifetime will be ridden by Florent Geroux and break from post position 10.
4:39 p.m. – $500,000 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes (G2), NBC
Klaravich Stables’ Newspaperofrecord, winner of the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Churchill Downs, heads a field of eight fillies and mares for the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile. Trained by Chad Brown, Newspaperofrecord returned to the races in June following an 11-month layoff to win the Intercontinental (G3) and followed that effort up with a front-running score in the Just A Game (G1).
5:17 p.m. – $500,000 Derby City Distaff Stakes (G1), NBC
Joel Politi’s Serengeti Empress, the 2019 Kentucky Oaks winner who is coming off a victory in the Ballerina Stakes (G2) at Saratoga, heads a field of 10 fillies and mares in the Derby City Distaff. Trained by Tom Amoss, Serengeti Empress has won two of three starts at the seven-furlong distance with her lone loss coming to champion Covfefe in last year’s Test Stakes (G1).
5:50 p.m. – $1 million Turf Classic Stakes (G1), NBC
A field of 10 top older grass runners will go to post in the 34th running of the Turf Classic, one of six graded stakes that will precede the 146th running of the Kentucky Derby. Factor This, riding a four-race win streak, and Somelikeithotbrown, winner of the Bernard Baruch (G2) at Saratoga in his most recent start, will be the starting top weights with 124 pounds in the Turf Classic. Trained by Brad Cox, Factor This counts the Wise Dan (G2) at Churchill Downs among his scores in his win streak.