Kentucky Derby 2020: Who the media pros are picking
Of course Tiz The Law was mentioned most often. But when TV racing analysts watching from afar were asked by HRN about the Kentucky Derby, the name of one long shot kept coming up.
If there is a wise-guy horse among the 17 starting Saturday, he is the one. At 30-1 odds to win, he looks like he may be a go-to horse for exacta, trifecta and superfecta tickets.
But Tiz The Law and Max Player were not the only horses mentioned when these familiar faces and voices were asked about their horses to watch – and their live long shots.
Honor A. P. and Authentic certainly got some love. But so did long shots Ny Traffic and Money Moves. And the “other” Baffert, Thousand Moves, was not forgotten.
RICHARD MIGLIORE
NYRA TV / Fox Sports
Tiz The Law and Honor A. P. “If I had to watch two horses I’ll start with Tiz The Law. He’s a throwback kind of horse. I look at him and he reminds me of the horses I grew up watching that made me fall in love with the game. Not only is he physically gifted, but he’s got an incredible intelligence to him. You can see the way he’s always clocking things and watching things. He’s the package. Of course the other logical horse is Honor A. P. A lot of why I like him is because of John Shirreffs more than anything else.”
Long shot: Max Player. “I actually think Max Player is going to run lights out. He’s a horse that I think has been playing catch-up from a mental standpoint. He got beaten by 5 1/4 lengths in the Belmont and 7 1/2 in the Travers. I think Tiz The Law could win this by open lengths. But Max Player wasn’t that far from him in the Travers, and I still don’t think this horse has figured it out. The light bulb hasn’t completely gone on. I like what I see from his training at Churchill Downs. I like the fact that he’s been at Churchill. No knock on Linda Rice; she’s obviously a very good trainer. But (his new trainer) Steve Asmussen has been in these situations and seems to be able to get the best out of horses. I just wonder if Max Player won’t take a big step forward.”
RICH PERLOFF
TVG
Tiz The Law. “I feel like a spoilsport landing on an odds-on favorite in the Derby. But I think this guy towers over his rivals in this division. He had a dominant win in the Travers. That makes 3-5 on the morning line just about right.”
Long shot: Max Player. “The switch to Asmussen since his last start probably doesn’t close the gap on Tiz The Law. But Asmussen has had him long enough to put three works into him at Churchill. Even a slight improvement puts him in the hunt for the minors at least.”
MAGGIE WOLFENDALE-MORLEY
NYRA TV / Fox Sports
Honor A. P., Tiz The Law and Authentic. “I’m picking Honor A. P. at No. 1. I love the way he’s training. He’s energetic and moving well at Churchill. Beaten at odds of 1-2 last time, but the slow pace set by Thousand Words cost him, and he was still getting to him at the wire. Then I have Tiz The Law. He’s the best 3-year-old in the country, hands down. But this is the shortest break he’s coming off of, and it’s off the back of a career-best performance. He’s not training with quite the same energy. Obviously I’m splitting hairs for the deserved favorite. Then I put Authentic at No. 3. Yes, he will have to clear from the far outside. But since the introduction of the Derby point system, horses with early speed have been very dangerous.”
Long shot: Max Player. “I love 1 1/4 miles for him, and I’m hoping the new barn and rider (Ricardo Santana Jr.) keep him a little closer to the pace. He hasn’t missed a beat since shipping to Kentucky three weeks ago.”
SCOTT HAZELTON
TVG
Authentic. “I think he gets the lead and has the class to keep going.”
Long shot: Max Player. “He has the pedigree for the distance and has strong works at Churchill.”
ZOE CADMAN
XBTV
Tiz The Law, Honor A. P. “Tiz the Law has not misread a trick. He’s the type of horse who simply never has a bad day. Full credit for Barclay Tagg and his team for keeping this one in tip-top shape. He actually seems to be getting better if that is possible at all. He is the horse to beat.”
Long shots: Ny Traffic, Money Moves. “I still can’t believe why on earth this son of Cross Traffic is such a price. His digs are good, he could not have trained any better leading up to the Derby, and he finished just a nose behind Authentic while flying late in the Haskell. Give me some Ny Traffic. I will take him under Tiz The Law and Honor A. P., and I will also include Money Moves on my deeper exotics.”
JONATHON KINCHEN
NYRA TV / Fox Sports
Tiz The Law. “I’m going to watch Tiz The Law, and I’m going to watch those two horses that are also on the outside that can’t beat him. I want to make sure Honor A. P. and Authentic don’t hit him at the break. Once he clears them my eyes will be on the 17 and the 17 alone until he opens up by about three at the eighth pole. Then I’ll start looking for my horses that I want to get underneath in the trifecta.”
Long shot: Thousand Words. “I don’t know how long he’ll be. Bob Baffert has won five Derbies. Thousand Words can’t win this Derby, because he’s not fast enough. But with that trainer and his progression I think second or third is likely.”
MILLIE BALL YAKTEEN
XBTV
Tiz The Law, Honor A. P., Authentic, Ny Traffic. I love how gritty Ny Traffic is. Even though one could argue in the Haskell that Mike Smith aboard Authentic used his stick only once in late stretch, Ny Traffic was finding his best stride late.
Long shot: Money Moves. “He is a tough horse. He’s lightly seasoned, which might work against him. But he worked well last Friday with an older horse, You’re to Blame, who has earned more than $680,000 on dirt. I particularly liked his late energy. He ran well despite losing a shoe in his allowance race and against older horses in July. This is not Todd’s normal M.O. with no major prep victory on his résumé. But he has a pedigree for stamina — and an off track should it rain.”
CHRISTINA BLACKER
TVG
Honor A. P. “He is and has been my Derby horse for over a year. This animal is the ultimate racehorse. He floats over the ground and has the build, pedigree and running style to win the Kentucky Derby. His recent works have moved him forward by leaps and bounds as Hall of Famer Mike Smith has been teaching him to accelerate and rate in an instant. He is laser focused right now and has the speed figures to build from and defeat the heavy favorite Tiz The Law. I have immense respect for the favorite and realize he is the horse to beat, but I won’t abandon the Honor A. P. ship now. He’s still improving.”
Long shot: Attachment Rate. “I will also be using him in all my exotic wagers. Attachment Rate’s last race is better than it looks. He was wide and moved early to go after the highly regarded Art Collector in the Ellis Park Derby. He blew past the winner on the gallop out and has an improving speed-figure pattern. This horse is somehow being forgotten about, and with the defection of Art Collector he moves up in terms of his overall chances. I am also intrigued by the rapidly improving Money Moves and Sole Volante. Sole Volante has a logical excuse for his poor performance in the Belmont when coming back on 10 days rest. He is also bred to relish the Derby distance.”