Kentucky Derby 2020: What rules apply to a September Derby?
Can the horse get the 1 1/4 miles? Does he have a high enough speed rating? Did he finish strong at the end of his last prep? And did he win it?
Those are some of the usual questions that get asked before a normal Kentucky Derby. But in this abnormal year, these optics that were created with one set of parameters may mean very little. And maybe, just maybe, they were never great tools as much as they were handicapping crutches.
[RELATED: Kentucky Derby 2020 Odds & Analysis - 19 probables]
In an ongoing series featuring prominent horseplayers, HRN asked in separate interviews: Which trends that might have been useful for a May running of the Derby should be ignored Labor Day weekend?
All the participants cautioned against zeroing in on any particular prism. But they offered what might be looked at as new angles to use Sept. 5.
SCOTT SHAPIRO
Racing analyst, Churchill Downs
Host, “Who Do Ya Like" Podcast
Louisville, Ky.
“You want to think about how the pace of the race is going to come out. If a horse with tactical speed that might not normally send gets drawn to the inside, they might have to send. And vice-versa. Most of the horses drawn to the inside that are closers might not be as hot. That’s one thing that’s always going to play a role.”
DAVID GUTFREUND
Winner, 2018 NHC Tour
15-time NHC player
Professional gambler
Las Vegas
“Throw out all the historical data. Pay attention to none of that. None of the short-term points-era stats really matter, and none of the long-term Derby stats really matter that much. It’s just a completely different ballgame this year.”
SCOTT COLES
Winner, 2019 NHC
Futures trader
Chicago
“I try not to use many hard rules anymore. I used those when I was starting out. I just feel like there are exceptions to every rule, and you have to be real careful about it. There are so many people who thought Justify wasn’t going to win because of that Apollo curse (the rule Derby winners must race as 2-year-olds). I really try to stay away from hard rules. You could really get beat like that.”
TONY ZHOU
Analytics bettor, five-time NHC player
Quantitative analyst
New York
“I’m not sure it’s a waste of time. When you put in that much work to study trends, etc., you’re going to be better than the average person betting into the pool. I think there’s value in that. But people overestimate the value of this trend or that trend. There’s no one single thing that’s going to give you such an overwhelming edge that you can just bet on that alone. Do you have insider information? Do you know that the horse is set to run or something? Other than that I don’t think there’s that much value."
JUDY WAGNER
Winner, 2001 NHC
Member, Louisiana Racing Commission
New Orleans
“I’ve gotten hung up on those in the past. Things like a 3-year-old can’t win unless they won as a 2-year-old. Obviously, that has been proven not to be true with the last few years.”
JUDE FELD
Analyst, HRRN and
Winner, 2020 NHC Charity Challenge
Lexington, Ky.
“You would probably throw out most historical things this year, but I don’t normally handicap that way. I’m not someone who has all those crazy little angles the people use. Most of the time I start my Derby handicapping at Saratoga. From the day I saw Tiz The Law break his maiden I was really impressed with him. That happens sometimes at Saratoga. Big Brown comes to mind. Uncle Mo didn’t win the Derby, but he turned out to be a pretty good horse. They win at Saratoga, and they’re like burned into your brain. Tiz The Law was like that for me.”
SHAPIRO: “I throw out pedigree or the ability to stretch out from your preps. A lot of these horses will have already gone a mile-and-a-quarter or have been exposed at getting further distances. There are a lot less lightly raced horses if that fits the profile. Usually you kind of get a couple horses that are 2-for-2 or 3-for-3, and you can argue they still have room to grow. But we’ve seen a lot more from these horses.”
GUTFREUND: “The fundamentals that matter are what happens on the first Saturday in September. How’s the track playing? How does the race set up? How are the horses coming into the race? Am I getting good prices on the horses?”
COLES: “It’s kind of like my approach at the NHC. People said that a horse has to be 8-1 or more for you to play them. So if a horse you think has no chance of losing is 7-1, you’re not going to play them? It doesn’t make any sense. In the Derby, if a horse never had a 95 Beyer but he had a 94, you’re not betting on him? I’m not making a hard-line rule to cut things off. I think everything is just relative to the field, and you have to take that into account.”
ZHOU: “Whoever had a trend that was correct five years ago may no longer be correct today. You use something, and it gets pounded into the price, and you have to find something new. What I say today might be totally opposite of what you want to do 10 years from now. Twenty years ago, if you’re building your own speed figures, you’d kill it. But now if you build your own speed figures I’m not sure it’s worth the time. It’s an ever-evolving game. That’s the summary of how gambling goes.”
WAGNER: “I would probably still be concerned with a horse in the ‘1’ or ‘2’ hole if it was a weak horse. Jockeys do matter. I hate when a jockey gets on a horse all the way up to qualifying for the Derby and then gets pulled off for a Castellano or somebody like that. But I’ve gotten a little bit past that. With the Derby being in September as opposed to May, I go back to the maturity of the horse. I will discount poor performances and look at very few starts prior to May. That would be more important to me this year than it would have been in the past, because I do think the May-to-September period will be a bigger factor.”