Kentucky Derby 2020 Scouting Report: Central Division III

Central Division horses on the 2020 Kentucky Derby trail base during the winter mainly at Oaklawn Park and Fair Grounds, while the leader has settled into a more southern locale to continue prepping for the first Saturday in May. Among points races recetnly concluded in this region are two divisions of the Fair Grounds' Risen Star (G2) and Oaklawn's Southwest Stakes (G3). Here's a closer look at names to know with final preps approaching. (Sire - Trainer - Owner - Derby Points) The Leader Dennis’ Moment (Tiznow - Dale Romans - Albaugh Family Stables LLC - 10): While horses such as Mr. Monomy and Modernist have earned what should be enough points to make the Derby gate, this colt has yet to event race as a 3-year-old. However, his resume as a freshman runner for Dale Romans keeps him atop this list. He is on track for Saturday's Fountain of Youth (G2) with recent works at Gulfstream heavily scrutinized -- as should be expected. He gets the benefit of the doubt here to remain the top-threat of this bunch, but his margin of error is small with two chances left to get the necessary points. [current William Hill odds: 8-1] First Tier Enforceable (Tapit - Mark Casse - John Oxley - 33): Minus a second-place finish in the first division of the Risen Star, Enforceable is following in the footsteps of War of Will, who won both of the Louisiana Derby prep races in 2019 for the Casse barn. There is no shame in defeat by Mr. Monomoy in the better of the two Risen Star races as Enforceable was able to make up for a slow start, found himself a little wide at the quarter pole and closed well for the place. His speed figures in the Risen Star were not much of a jump from his Lecomte victory. The Louisiana Derby (G2) is his next logical prep race. [current William Hill odds: 20-1] Maxfield (Street Sense - Brendan Walsh - Godolphin - 10): Much like Dennis’ Moment, Maxfield has a small margin for error as he has yet to debut as a 3-year-old. Unlike Dennis’ Moment, the 2019 Breeders’ Futurity (G1) winner only has one published workout in 2020 stemming from bone chip surgery in November. In that respect, he's even further behind. Maxfield tallied 10 Derby points by way of the Breeders' Futurity (G1) last fall. If this top-tier talent is ready in time, he may get just one shot to win or hit the board in a major prep. [current William Hill odds: 10-1] Mr. Monomoy (Palace Malice - Brad Cox - Madaket Stables, Michael Dubb and Doheny Racing Stable - 52): As long as he stays healthy for the next 10 weeks, Mr. Monomoy most likely has already secured his spot in the Derby field. It would mark the Louisville native Cox's first starter in the race. Mr. Monomoy put to rest some distance questions when stretching his speed nine furlongs in the Risen Star, but skeptics will remain when it comes to the 1 1/4-mile Derby. He did win the better of two split divisions. Mr. Monomoy will probably not rank among Derby favorites, but as a sibling to champion filly Monomoy Girl he's a great story carrying on the family legacy. [current William Hill odds: 20-1] Silver Prospector (Declaration of War - Steve Asmussen - Ed and Susie Orr - 21): The Southwest Stakes winner showed some patience when starting a bit behind the first pack of horses at Oaklawn Park. When given the opportunity, he set sights on front-running Wells Bayou and gunned him down in the stretch. Silver Prospector finished strong in what was a career-best effort likely leading to the March 14 Rebel Stakes (G2). He’s the Asmussen barn's best looking prospect at this point and with 21 points doesn't have much left to do before qualifying. [current William Hill odds: 30-1] Second Tier Answer In (Dialed In - Brad Cox - Robert LaPenta - 6): He was the beaten favorite, finishing third behind Silver Prospector and stablemate Wells Bayou, in the Southwest Stakes, when tiring down the stretch after a wide trip. That is of major concern going forward. His dam was a two-time winner, but not past six furlongs. Dam sire Broken vow won a graded stakes at nine furlongs, and Answer In’s sire, Dialed In, won the Florida Derby (G1) at nine furlongs. He figures to get one more chance after narrowly missing as well in the Remington Springboard Mile. [current William Hill odds: 40-1]  Gold Street (Street Boss - Steve Asmussen - Mike McCarty - 10) He ran a clunker in the Southwest Stakes, but his two stakes-winning efforts preceding it leaving him in contention. It seems that when the track is wet and he finds the lead, Gold Street wins. But Gold Street is also an all-or-nothing type, finishing up the track in both starts when he didn't hit the board. Expect him to be gunning out of the gate in his next start, wherever that may be. [current William Hill odds: 100-1 ] Shoplifted (Into Mischief - Steve Asmussen - Grandview Equine, Cheyenne Stables, et al - 13): As other Asmussen charges train on at Oaklawn, Shoplifted may benefit from a change of scenery after finishes of third and fourth to open his season. The Springboard Mile winner back in December, he flashed some talent last summer at Saratoga and now looks to get a couple more chances to see if he wants these type of distances. [current William Hill odds: 100-1] Silver State (Hard Spun - Steve Asmussen - Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC and Willis Horton Racing LLC - 14): He has hit the board in his two 2020 starts, recently finishing third in the better of the two Risen Stars. This could wind up as a hard-luck horse who breaks through with a better trip in the Louisiana Derby (G2), or the type of colt who's just a cut below. We'll find out soon. [current William Hill odds: 35-1] Ones to Watch Basin (Liam's Map - Steve Asmussen - Jackpot Farm - 0): He's a candidate to start around one turn in the March 7 Gotham (G3) or two a week later in the Rebel. Last summer's Hopeful Stakes (G1) winner hasn't run since then due to a minor physical setback. He has yet to go longer than seven furlongs, so while he may be a big talent, time isn't on his side into the spring. [current William Hill odds: 50-1] Mailman Money (Goldencents - Bret Calhoun - Allied Racing Stable, LLC - 5): Mailman Money finished fourth in the slower of the two Risen Star flights, but that is not enough to dismiss him yet. He’s been bumped coming out of the gate in back-to-back races, so a clean break next out could be the key for a big forward move. [current William Hill odds: 110-1] Major Fed (Ghostzapper - Greg Foley - Lloyd Madison Farms - 20): Lightly raced, he showed major improvement second out, stretching to 1 1/16 miles to break his maiden at Fair Grounds by 4 1/4 lengths. He stepped up further to finish second to Modernist in the second division of the Risen Star. He'll likely line up in the Louisiana Derby as a colt eligible to continue moving forward. [current William Hill odds: 50-1] Necker Island (Hard Spun - Stanley Hough - Sagamore Farm LLC and Stanley Hough - 0): This “need-the-lead” colt never got it going early in Swale Stakes (G3) when making his 2020 debut. He's a longshot just to make the Derby but is worth watching if dropped back into a race at a mile or longer second off the bench. [current William Hill odds: 60-1] No Parole (Violence - Tom Amoss - Maggi Moss - 0) He is a Louisiana-bred, and he is fast, breaking his maiden and defeating winners by open lengths at Fair Grounds before going around two-turns in a state-bred stakes. From here, Amoss and Moss are expected to pick out a Derby prep race. Wherever he shows up, No Parole will be a wildcard. [current William Hill odds: 30-1] Wells Bayou (Lookin At Lucky - Brad Cox - Clint and Lance Gasaway - 4) Absent from most Derby watch lists prior to his second-place finish in the Southwest Stakes, Wells Bayou moved forward tremendously from his allowance optional claiming victory at Oaklawn at the end of January. He set the pace in the Southwest, and a gutsy performance from Silver Prospector is all that stood between Wells Bayou and victory. [current William Hill odds: 100-1]
Remaining Central Division Preps

• Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) - Turfway Park - March 14 - [20-8-4-2]

• Rebel (G2) - Oaklawn Park - March 14 - [50-20-10-5]

• Louisiana Derby (G2) - Fair Grounds - March 21 - [100-40-20-10]

• Blue Grass (G2) - Keeneland - April 4 - [100-40-20-10]

• Lexington (G3) - Keeneland - April 11 - [20-8-4-2]

• Arkansas Derby (G1) - Oaklawn Park - April 11 - [100-40-20-10]