Why Kentucky Derby Pick 6, Pick 5 and Pick 4's pay so well

Owners, trainers and jockeys are not the only people dreaming big on Kentucky Derby Saturday. Bettors realize there are multiple life changing opportunities to be had at the windows. The pools are massive on Derby Day and it only takes one price in the sequence to spice things up. View a year-by-year review of the payoffs and pools for the Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5 and Pick 6 sequences ending with the Derby for the past five years below. 

2019

Many horizontal tickets were crumbled into pieces when favored Maximum Security was taken down in the 2019 Derby. This led to chaos and a huge payday for the lucky few that had Country House or hit the all button in their wagers. The late Pick 5 included two short-priced obvious horses who would go on to win Breeders' Cup races in Mitole and Bricks and Motar and it still paid $72,371.60 for $0.50! In 2019 it was best to single the free squares and go deep in the Derby. Notice how much closer the total Pick 5 pool was to the Pick 4 pool compared to prior years. Bettors are realizing that the lower takeout Pick 5 is better bang for their buck. Look for the Pick 5 pool to surpass the Pick 4 pool in 2020.

2018 was the complete opposite of 2019 in that the Derby was formful, but the rest of the sequence was extremely difficult. Going into the day everyone would have signed up to be alive for a Pick 5 of over $600K to Justify, but to get there required incredible handicapping. No favorites won in the sequence prior to Justify, and Funny Duck at 39-1 in the Pat Day Mile ensured that no one hit the Pick 6, even on a $0.20 ticket! One could have played all in the Pat Day Mile, singled Justify and played a handful of horses in Yoshida's Turf Classic win for under $30 on a $0.50 Pick 3 ticket. That returned a whopping $3,274.55.

Though favored Always Dreaming won the 2017 Derby, it was one of the most wide-open betting races in recent memory. There were no winners above 15-1 in these sequences, but it was more difficult to find clear-cut singles. This is why the payoffs for each bet went up exponentially when adding each race. The Pick 3 payout was modest, but the Pick 4 paid 16 times more when adding in a 15-1 shot. The Pick 5 paid an astonishing 15 times more than the Pick 4 when adding an 8-1 shot. By adding in a 7-5 shot and dropping your minimum wager to $0.20, you could have taken home an additional $35,000 for the Pick 6.

This was the final year of the $2 Pick 6 minimum and though the sequence was not as difficult as it has been in the past couple of years, no one was able to hit all 6. With the $0.20 minimum now in place, dreams of taking down the whole pool have almost been eliminated. These sequences were not easy, but not impossible by any means. A Pick 4 ending with the 2-1 favorite in the Kentucky Derby paid a rock solid $5,723.80! The Pick 5 jumped to $24,152.45 by simply adding a logical 3-1 shot.

2015 provided the most chalky last three races of the past 5 years. The Pick 3 payoffs were disappointing with many likely singling American Pharoah. The Pick 4 proved fruitful as Tepin scored to begin her rise at 15-1. Tepin's victory helped the Pick 4 pay 10 times more than the Pick 3. Dame Dorothy, a logical 9-2 shot, started a Pick 5 that paid $2,452.90, which is proof that even a hittable Pick 5 sequence on Derby Day pays well. Pick 6 players salivated at a juicy payoff of almost $65K for the Pick 6 after Divisidero won at 20-1. 65K for a sequence that included a $52 Pick 3 is simply remarkable.