Kentucky Derby 2020: Odds & analysis

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Tiz the Law enters the $3 million Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday as the overwhelming favorite — a deserved honor, given his talents and accomplishments along the strange 3-year-old Derby trail. Art Collector’s late defection makes him an even larger threat as if softens up the expected pace. [RELATED: Get Free Kentucky Derby PPs here] Strange results happen in this race, although the points era has made surprise long shot winners almost non-existent except for Country House last year. (And that win was via a controversial disqualification.) For the most part in recent years, the horse crossing the Derby wire first goes off at low single-digit odds.

The Kentucky Derby is carded as Race #14 with a post time of 7:01 ET.

1. Finnick the Fierce, 50-1 (Dialed In – Rey Hernandez/Martin Garcia – 9: 2-1-2 - $191,290): His recent Blue Grass Stakes (G2) effort is disappointing. After making a decent move into fourth on the turn, he became tired and faded to seventh and 10 3/4 lengths behind Art Collector. A closer’s strength is closing the gap in the stretch, not losing ground to the winner. Also, he lost to Art Collector two starts back in an optional claimer on this course, failing to even hold second after Shared Sense moved past him in the stretch. The rail draw does not help, either. Toss.

2. Max Player, 30-1 (Honor Code – Linda Rice/Ricardo Santana Jr. – 5: 2-1-2 - $373,500): This deep closer keeps picking up checks. He gave modest runs for third in both the Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes (G1), losing to Tiz the Law by 5 1/4 lengths in the former race and 7 1/2 lengths in the latter. Still, this is the kind of horse who passes tired horses in the stretch and makes the trifecta or superfecta payoffs more interesting. He is usable in that capacity. Use underneath.

3. Enforceable, 30-1 (Tapit – Mark Casse/Adam Beschizza – 10: 2-2-2 - $397,150): Similar to Finnick the Fierce, this closer’s effort in the Blue Grass Stakes is disappointing. At least Enforceable ran fourth, which is not terrible. However, he let Rushie beat him in the stretch for third and Art Collector still beat him by 8 1/2 lengths. Just looking at his running line, he did not come closer than seven lengths. Prior to the Blue Grass, he won the Lecomte Stakes (G3) before a second in the first division of the Risen Star Stakes (G2) and fifth in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He is just not very fast and figures to get caught in plenty of traffic from Post 3. Toss.

4. Storm the Court, 50-1 (Court Vision – Peter Eurton/Julien Leparoux – 9: 2-1-3 - $1,310,451): The reigning Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion is 0 for 5 this year. He was no match for Authentic and Honor A. P. in the San Felipe Stakes (G2), finishing a non-threatening third by 5 3/4 lengths. Then, he ran sixth by 12 lengths in the Arkansas Derby (G1), well behind Nadal and King Guillermo in second. He does not belong with these horses. The third in the Ohio Derby is not very important, nor is the runner-up finish in the La Jolla Handicap (G3) on turf. Toss.

5. Major Fed, 50-1 (Ghostzapper – Gregory Foley/James Graham – 6: 1-2-1 - $215,600): After a promising second in the second division of the Risen Star Stakes (G2), Major Fed ran fourth in the Louisiana Derby (G2), 10th in the Matt Winn Stakes (G3) and second in the Indiana Derby (G3). Cross out the Matt Winn effort, as a wide first turn severely hurt his chances. His Louisiana Derby and Indiana Derby efforts look fine overall, except that he gives the leaders too many lengths early on. If he can revert back to his Risen Star style and settle in mid-pack at least, he has a shot to hit the board. At his odds, he might be worth a play underneath. Live long shot.

6. King Guillermo, 20-1 (Uncle Mo – Juan Carlos Avila/Samy Camacho – 5: 2-1-1 - $340,350): Despite the 126-day layoff, this colt has done nothing wrong in 2020. He won the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) by 4 3/4 lengths with a 119 on TimeformUS, before a strong second to the invincible Nadal in the Arkansas Derby (G1). In the latter race, TimeformUS gave him a 120. Remember, those speed figures came in the spring. King Guillermo is probably a stronger and faster horse by now. He also owns useful tactical speed to put him in the right position in a race that favors pressers or close-range stalkers. The connections are unorthodox, but he can win. Win contender.

7. Money Moves, 30-1 (Candy Ride – Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano – 3: 2-1-0 - $67,400): After losing an optional claimer at Saratoga on July 25, it is hard to take him seriously. Granted, he ran against older horses and lost by only a neck. Neither of his two prior races are impressive enough to take him seriously in this race. He needs more time to develop. Toss.

8. South Bend, 50-1 (Algorithms – William Mott/Tyler Gaffalione – 12: 3-2-2 - $390,114): This race is turning into a closer-fest. He did complete the superfecta in the Travers Stakes (G1), but two lengths separated him and Max Player in third. Prior to that effort, he ran a closing second to Dean Martini in the Ohio Derby (G3). Betting every closer is an expensive strategy. He does not make the cut. Toss.

9. Mr. Big News, 50-1 (Giant’s Causeway – Bret Calhoun/Gabriel Saez – 7: 2-1-0 - $168,553): He won the Oaklawn Stakes after a pace collapse before showing his lower class in the Blue Grass Stakes with a mild sixth. The connections decided to attempt this race at the last minute, and that is not a great sign of confidence. On the plus side, he draws a good post position and figures to pick off tired horses. Superfecta players might want to think about tossing him in third or fourth. Use underneath.

10. Thousand Words, 15-1 (Pioneerof the Nile – Bob Baffert/Florent Geroux – 7: 4-1-0 - $327,000): For the most part, this colt has been disappointing. After winning a weak Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3), he went on to finish fourth by 11 1/4 lengths in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) behind Authentic, Honor A. P. and Storm the Court. Afterward, he ran 11th in the Oaklawn Stakes and then second to Uncle Chuck in the Los Alamitos Derby (G3). Uncle Chuck did not back up that effort, missing the board in the Travers. But Thousand Words gave Honor A. P. bettors a surprise with a front-running win in the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar. He is not securing the lead in this case, though, as Baffert figures to order Authentic winging up front. With that said, he is working well and possibly gives the impression of a better horse than his form in the spring. This is a difficult horse to handicap. Use underneath.

11. Necker Island, 50-1 (Hard Spun – Chris Hartman/Miguel Mena – 10: 2-0-3 - $199,730): With seven straight losses, endorsing this colt is difficult. In his last two starts, he ran third in the Indiana Derby (G3) with no excuse after showing tactical speed, and then third by 8 1/2 lengths in the Ellis Park Derby. Derby fever is real. For bettors not using him, that's great as his presence helps the odds on others. Toss.

12. Sole Volante, 30-1 (Karakontie – Patrick Biancone/Luca Panici – 7: 4-1-1 - $323,310): Sole Volante won the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) earlier in the year before a good second-place finish to King Guillermo in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). It does not seem like he is any better now compared to those spring races. Three months later, he barely won a Gulfstream optional claimer by 3/4 of a length over Jesus’ Team after a speed duel set him up. Perhaps Sole Volante did not give his best run. Ten days later, Sole Volante ran a distant sixth in the Belmont Stakes, 15 3/4 lengths behind the winner Tiz the Law. As some backers point out, maybe he did not enjoy the dirt surface at Belmont. Because of back problems after the race, Sole Volante did not work for over a month after the Belmont. Is that a horse to bet on? It feels like the connections are rushing this closer to make the big race. Toss.

13. Attachment Rate, 50-1 (Hard Spun – Dale Romans/Joe Talamo – 8: 1-3-1 - $143,732): Two starts ago, Attachment Rate performed better from a mechanical standpoint by switching leads in the stretch run of the Blue Grass Stakes. One start later, he finished a strong second to Art Collector in the Ellis Park Derby while switching leads correctly a second time, earning a career-high 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the process. At least this runner is capable of learning new tricks. If he works out a clean trip and moves forward on the figure scale, he hits the board. Use underneath.

14. Winning Impression, 50-1 (Paynter – Dallas Stewart/Joe Rocco Jr. – 9: 1-1-2 - $98,552): As good as trainer Dallas Stewart is at hitting the board in Triple Crown races with huge long shots, this one’s recent form is not justifiable. In the Ellis Park Derby, Shared Sense outran him from almost the same far-back position to finish fifth, while Winning Impression lost ground to the winner late to finish seventh by 11 1/4 lengths. Two starts back, Winning Impression was a distant seventh in the Indiana Derby. Only move this late closer up if it rains, as his maiden win and April 4 optional claiming victory over Finnick the Fierce both came on slop. Toss (but include if it rains).

15. Ny Traffic, 20-1 (Cross Traffic – Saffie Joseph Jr./Paco Lopez – 9: 2-3-2 - $565,470): The defection of Art Collector softens up the front end. Perhaps this race is going to turn into a rematch of the Haskell Stakes (G1), with Authentic leading and Ny Traffic pressing from half a length behind. Ny Traffic lost the Haskell but came out looking like a horse who will enjoy the 1 1/4-mile distance. Prior to the Haskell, he ran second in both the Matt Winn and Louisiana Derby. The problem is that he faces more quality horses than Authentic this time, such as Tiz the Law and Honor A. P. With some luck, perhaps he can sneak out a victory by a small margin. The more probable scenario is that Ny Traffic fights until the end and comes up short. Use underneath.

16. Honor A. P., 5-1 (Honor Code – John Shirreffs/Mike Smith – 5: 2-3-0 - $382,200): Honor A. P. came up short in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) to Authentic earlier in the year, but the layoff and shorter distance were factors in that loss. Three months later in his next start, he won the Santa Anita Derby (G1) by 2 3/4 lengths over Authentic and leapt onto most Kentucky Derby Top 5 lists. But then he lost the Shared Belief Stakes by 3/4 of a length, taking away some of the hype. Which Honor A. P. shows up this week at Churchill Downs? Cross out the Shared Belief effort. Trainer John Shirreffs did not tune him up for that race, knowing Honor A. P. already held the points to enter the Kentucky Derby. Honor A. P. is capable of making a sustained run to win a quality race, as evidenced by his Santa Anita Derby triumph. He moves like his grandsire A.P. Indy, who scratched out of the 1992 Kentucky Derby before winning the Belmont Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Classic. On that note, it is unclear whether he runs too much like a grinder who needs an unobstructed run, rather than a horse who can weave in and out of traffic quickly. On paper, Post 16 is supposed to help him stay in the clear. But it is also a danger that Authentic veers left and cuts him off. Otherwise, he can rebound in this race. Win contender.

17. Tiz the Law, 3/5 (Constitution – Barclay Tagg/Manuel Franco – 7: 6-0-1 - $2,015,300): Given his last three races, it is hard to choose against the public favorite. Tiz the Law won the Florida Derby (G1) in March by 4 1/4 lengths. After two months, he then took the modified Belmont Stakes by 3 3/4 lengths. He won those races with mild speed figures (for a horse of his respect and hype) on TimeformUS, earning a 121 and 120. But last month, Tiz the Law ran the performance of his career in winning the Travers Stakes (G1) by 5 1/2 lengths with a 126 on TimeformUS. Visually, he was capable of running faster. As shown in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) last fall, his only kryptonite is racing in the pocket and taking dirt. Otherwise, he figures to make the same winning move approaching the far turn. He figures to go off at low odds, but those odds are not necessarily unfair, given his record and accomplishments. Tiz the Law is the top choice. As with Honor A. P., though, the concern is that Authentic takes a left turn and cuts him off at the start.
The pick.

18. Authentic, 8-1 (Into Mischief – Bob Baffert/John Velazquez – 5: 4-1-0 - $1,011,200): Without a doubt, this horse needs the lead. In his three wins this year in the Sham Stakes (G3), San Felipe Stakes (G2) and Haskell Stakes (G1), Authentic ran on an uncontested lead through moderate fractions. When he did not break well in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), Honor A. P. outran him in the stretch. Expect Velazquez to send hard from this post, as Baffert does not rate a good speed horse. There is also a chance he could cut off Tiz the Law and Honor A. P. at the break. Even if Authentic secures an uncontested lead, the question of whether he can handle 1 1/4 miles remains. Into Mischief is not a strong stamina sire, and no strong clues exist on his bottom side. He hung a bit in the Haskell but held on against a resurgent Ny Traffic. The runner-up to Honor A. P. is maybe half-forgivable because of the poor start. Art Collector’s defection helps. Use underneath.

Conclusion:

The most probable winners are Tiz the Law, Honor A. P. and King Guillermo. Art Collector’s defection helps all three of these horses, as the pace is softer now.

It is understandable if bettors just want to single Tiz the Law. However, it is not cut and dried, as he draws next to Authentic and might get cut off at the start. Perhaps that is not a huge deal. Even if Tiz the Law waits a second or two for Authentic to clear from Post 18, he gets to enjoy his preferred clear and outside trip afterwards.

The underneath options are Max Player, Major Fed, Mr. Big News, Thousand Words, Attachment Rate, Ny Traffic and Authentic, and Winning Impression if it rains.
Here are my early thoughts on wagering options: