Kentucky Derby 2020: How low will Tiz the Law's odds be?
If value is an overused buzzword around racing, a lack of value provokes it.
If futures markets are any indication, Tiz The Law might be the shortest-priced favorite to start the Kentucky Derby (G1) in 19 years. While Circa Sports has kept him at close to even money (+105), most other books chock-full of liability have thrown up the minus signs. William Hill Nevada made him 4-5 (–125) last week.
Tracks booking pari-mutuels do not assume that sort of liability. Still, could bettors shorten Tiz The Law to be the first odds-on, post-time favorite in the Derby in 28 years? Horseplayers taking part in HRN’s series previewing Derby betting found themselves differing on that point in their separate conversations.
They also mulled the possibility that the winner of the Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes still could provide value despite the widespread belief that he will be shorter than 2-1.
JUDE FELD
Analyst, HRRN and PopeJude.com
Winner, 2020 NHC Charity Challenge
Lexington, Ky.
“I’m assuming that there’s going to be 20 horses in the field, so I would imagine that Tiz The Law would probably be like 8-5 or 9-5. He’s going to be the overwhelming favorite, and probably well he should be. I think the only horse that can beat him is Honor A. P. I think those two horses really stand out. I don’t think Art Collector can even warm those two horses up. Art Collector is a nice horse, but he’s not in the same category as the other two, in my opinion. And I don’t think he’s really beaten anything."
JUDY WAGNER
Winner, 2001 National Horseplayers Championship
Member, Louisiana Racing Commission
New Orleans
“I will guess probably 6-5. That’s just a guess; I’m certainly no expert on odds. If there are 20 horses you may see a little bit better. I don’t think the horse will go off at even money.”
DAVID GUTFREUND
Winner, 2018 NHC Tour
15-time NHC player
Professional gambler
Las Vegas
“How low? 7-5. 8-5. If it’s an off track I think he drifts to 5-2."
SCOTT SHAPIRO
Racing analyst, Churchill Downs
Host, “Who Do Ya Like Podcast”
Louisville, Ky.
“I’m guessing Tiz The Law will be odds-on — 4-5 right now — or maybe even money. A lot of that matters if we get the full 20-horse field. I don’t see there being that much excitement in betting against him at this stage. Normally that seems like a really, really short price. But there’s usually so much more unknown going into the Derby on the first Saturday in May. A lot of these horses have been exposed. So how excited are you going to be to bet them no matter the price against the likes of Tiz The Law?”
TONY ZHOU
Analytics bettor, five-time NHC player
Quantitative analyst
New York
“When I think of short prices, I don’t instantly think it’s bad value. Some of my best values are a short price. A horse that goes off 2-1 that I think should be 1-2, that’s a much better bet to me than a horse that should be 5-1 that’s going off at 20-1. That’s just because I can put more money on to it, just because the line is more solid. The shorter price in my model is just going to have less error around it. If Tiz The Law is 6-5, and I think he should be 4-5, that’s a slam-dunk bet to me. Tiz The Law towers over the field right now.”
FELD: “I don’t usually bet on horses that short. I try to stick to longer prices. He could be an overlay, so 8-5 might be great. The best bet I ever made in my life was like 4-5 on Avatar in a little stakes (the 1975 Bradbury) at Santa Anita in which three horses were entered. I was thinking he should be 1-1,000,000. He would have to have fallen down to lose, and even then I think he could have gotten up and won anyway. I bet whatever I had on him, about $300 or something. That was that. But I always consider that the best bet I ever made, because it was a ridiculous overlay on him.”
WAGNER: “If I could get him at less than 2-1, yes, I would take that. I wouldn’t put all my eggs in that one basket, because right now I’m sure there’s some sleepers.”
GUTFREUND: “Would I bet a future now? The answer to that question is if the price is right. If somebody wants to offer me 4-1 on Tiz The Law, I’ll take 4-1. If somebody wants to offer me 10-1 on Art Collector, I’ll take 10-1 on Art Collector. If there’s a really bad number somewhere, of course I would take it. But I’m not exactly searching it out. And I don’t think those numbers exist.”
SHAPIRO: “Will the absence of a lot of on-track bettors have an impact? It’ll matter a little bit but not a ton. I guess you’re going to have a little less public money just from the fact that there’s other things going on in September, whereas on the first Saturday in May the Derby is marked off on the calendar. There will probably be less public money. That’s another reason why I think that sharper money might not be as willing to take on Tiz The Law. I know people like myself have taken him on once or twice and were a little discouraged by the results.”
ZHOU: “Sometimes the favorite can be the contrarian play. Everyone wants to beat the favorite, and when that happens you want to bet on the favorite. It really depends on, one, do I think Tiz The Law is better than a 6-5 horse? And two, do I collectively that the public and other bettors are trying to beat the favorite just because they want to beat the favorite? I have to know there’s value, and I have to know why I see that value. If I don’t understand why I’m seeing the value, then I’m probably wrong. You have to respect the market.”