Kentucky Derby 2020: Analyzing trainers seeking first Derby win
Most years, the Kentucky Derby is filled with familiar faces. Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher are capable of putting forth a quarter of the starting gate by themselves in a given year. Baffert, Pletcher and Doug O'Neill combined have won the Kentucky Derby six times in the last 10 years.
This year, Baffert will send only two contenders to the Derby. Pletcher has only Dr Post, and O'Neill does not have a starter. In fact, Pletcher and Baffert are the only two trainers who have won the Derby in the last 14 years who will be starting a horse in the first Saturday in September. Barclay Tagg (2003) and John Shirreffs (2005) are the only other previous winners who will be partaking in this year's Run for the Roses.
Moving the Kentucky Derby back has given an opportunity to smaller barns to bring their talented, but less precocious horses up to the race. Let's take a look at the eight trainers most likely to pick up their first Kentucky Derby victory.
Horse: Art Collector
Thomas Drury has never even started a horse in the Derby, but he is best positioned to win his first with his rising star, Art Collector. Coming off of impressive wins in the Blue Grass (Grade 2) and Ellis Park Derby, Art Collector likely will be the second choice in the Derby. Four of the likely five top choices — Tiz the Law, Honor A. P., Authentic and Thousand Words — have trainers who have won the Derby before, leaving Drury way ahead of others who are seeking Derby glory for the first time.
Horse: Shirl's Speight
Attfield is a member of both the Canadian and American horseracing Halls of Fame. He has won the Queen's Plate eight times but has never won a Triple Crown race. Shirl's Speight is short on seasoning, but he might have the upside to win a race such as the Kentucky Derby. Unlike his rivals lower on this list, the undefeated runner has yet to be exposed. He has not faced a single Derby contender while running at Woodbine. He will be making only his third career start and first on dirt in the Derby, but he is a very intriguing prospect after two easy wins to start his career. Attfield is not the type of trainer to waste his time, so obviously he feels his colt is up for the challenge.
Horse: Caracaro
Gustavo Delgado has started a few Derby runners without success, though Bodexpress was in contention before being interfered with in last year's Derby. Caracaro finished a strong second in the Travers behind Tiz the Law. Unfortunately for him, it was a long way back. Still, this improving colt has tactical speed and has shown he can handle the distance. If Tiz the Law is that much better than anyone in this crop, this colt could beat everyone else home — and if Tiz the Law runs into trouble, then you never know.
Horse: King Guillermo
Juan Carlos Avila has never had a Derby starter, but he brings a talented colt in King Guillermo. King Guillermo won the Tampa Bay Derby impressively before running second to Nadal in the Arkansas Derby. Nadal would have been one of the favorites in the Kentucky Derby if he stayed healthy. It will be extremely tough for King Guillermo to win off a four-month layoff, but he appears to be one of the most talented runners in this crop.
Horse: Ny Traffic
Those who like Baffert's Authentic certainly can make a case for Ny Traffic in the Kentucky Derby. The improving colt just missed catching Authentic in the Haskell Stakes. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. campaigned Math Wizard to a win in the Pennsylvania Derby last year as a three-year old but has never had a Kentucky Derby starter. He is a trainer on the rise, and Ny Traffic appears to be a horse on the rise. He would need many things to go right to get his picture taken, but crazier things have happened in the Derby.
Horse: Max Player
With all of his many accomplishments, it is hard to believe that Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen has never won a Kentucky Derby. If he was to win this year's race, it would be a bit of a gift as he just received Max Player last week from the Linda Rice barn. Those banking on Max Player are betting that Asmussen can improve this horse by more than five lengths in about a month. Max Player has a solid closing kick and will handle the distance, but after finishing a distant third in the Belmont and Travers Stakes, a minor award seems to be his ceiling once more.
Horse: Sole Volante
Sole Volante has run races that put him in the mix, but this big closer will need to drastically improve off of his sixth-place finish in the Belmont Stakes. His believers will say that he came back too quickly in the Belmont off of a strong allowance win. If that is the case, then he could pick up a piece. But he would need the early pace to completely fall apart to have a chance of winning. Trainer Patrick Biancone has had good three-year-olds before and ran second in the 2004 Kentucky Derby with Lion Heart.
Horse: Storm the Court
It might take a champion to beat Tiz the Law, and Storm the Court is just that, having won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Eclipse Award for Top Two-Year-Old Male in 2019. But the 2019 Breeders' Cup Juvenile has proven to be a weak race, and Storm the Court has failed to progress off of his upset win. His second-place finish on the turf in the La Jolla last out was a useful prep, but he will have to run better than he ever has to get a piece. Trainer Peter Eurton had his best chance to win the Kentucky Derby in 2014, when the talented Dance With Fate ran a troubled sixth in the Derby.