Kentucky Derby 2020: Analyzing 5 head-to-head matchups

Betting on the Kentucky Derby in Nevada has been complicated this year by a 10-month dispute between the state's racebooks and the Churchill Downs. The two sides cannot agree on how to split takeout.

For the first time in 29 years, casinos are booking the Derby on their own. They are allowed by the Nevada Gaming Control Board to take action only on the Derby and Oaks this weekend and no other Churchill Downs races. Because they are obliged to pay the mutuel prices posted at the track, bookmakers are putting tight limits on a limited betting menu in order to minimize their liability.

Head-to-head Derby wagering, which is a favorite wager for many fans, is among the bets still being offered in Nevada. Below I analyze five intriguing head-to-head battles, with odds courtesy of William Hill.

Ny Traffic -115 vs. Thousand Words -115

Ny Traffic stands out in this matchup because of his continued improvement and consistency. Ny Traffic put a scare into Authentic late in the Haskell and battled the talented Maxfield in his prior start. He is proven at 1 3/16 miles, so 1 1/4 should be no problem. He has the perfect post and tactical style to hit the board in the Derby. Thousand Words has been very inconsistent throughout his 3-year-old campaign and won the Shared Belief with a perfect setup in a strangely run race. He looks like a prime candidate to bounce off that effort in this spot and could easily find himself closer to the rear of the field than the front at the finish if he does not get things his way.

Max Player -140 vs. Enforceable + 110

Even though I do not love taking -140, Max Player looks like a slam dunk in this matchup. He is my superfecta key in the Derby in the third and fourth holes. His numbers have improved in every start, and he has been working beautifully since being transferred to the Steve Asmussen barn. Expected further improvement puts this runner, who is better at longer distances, in the mix to hit the board. Enforceable has never run a race fast enough to compete with these and has run only once in the last 6 months. I would be surprised if he cracks the top half of the 16 horse field.

Money Moves -115 vs. Sole Volante -115

Money Moves, down to 14-1 in the early Kentucky Derby wagering, is taking money for a reason. This well-bred colt has improved in every start, should love this distance and has a tremendous amount of upside. Todd Pletcher's only Derby runner faced tough older foes in his last start, which should do wonders for his seasoning. Sole Volante is pace dependent and though he is a huge closer, I think less ground is better for him. He is better suited to the hot pace of a one-turn mile rather than the slow pace of a 1 1/4-mile race to flatter his kick. Money Moves will finish at least a few spots ahead of Sole Volante.

South Bend -110 vs. Storm the Court -120

I prefer slight underdog South Bend in this matchup. Numbers-wise, he ran his career best race last out going 1 1/4 miles for the first time in his first start in the Bill Mott barn. He has run better the further he has run and has improved since removing blinkers once more. Storm the Court has failed to progress off his surprising Breeders' Cup Juvenile win and would be an even bigger shocker in here. He could be part of the pace, while South Bend will be picking up pieces. The latter style is a safer option for head-to-head bets.

Honor A. P. -160 vs Authentic +130

I wish they were closer in odds, but Honor A. P easily handled Authentic in the Santa Anita Derby and will defeat him by even more at this greater distance. Toss Honor A. P.'s last race, which was merely a means to an ends. He is primed for a peak performance, while Authentic seems to have distance limitations. Honor A. P. and Tiz the Law are 5 lengths better than the rest of this field, including Authentic.