Kentucky Derby 2019 Scouting Report: Central Division III

The 2019 Kentucky Derby trail's Central Division picture has shifted over the last month with new prep winners on the scene, while some top runners as juveniles still await their 3-year-old debuts. The most notable mover is War of Will, who was Grade 1-placed on turf and jumped up with a dominant Lecomte Stakes (G3) win at Fair Grounds.

RELATED: Kentucky Derby East Coast Scouting Report

The current Central Division horses to know are listed below with their sire, trainer, owner(s) and Derby points.

The Leader

War of Will (War Front – Mark Casse – Gary Barber – 10): His five-length maiden win at Churchill Downs on Nov. 24 was less than a fifth of a second slower than the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) run at the same distance that day, and the colt was geared down in the slop. War of Will backed up the switch from turf to dirt with a four-length victory in the Lecomte, which earned him a 94 Beyer Speed Figure. He’s the anticipated Risen Star (G2) favorite on Feb. 16.

First Tier

Gray Attempt (Graydar – Jinks Fires – Dwight Pruett – 10): Following three consecutive front-running wins, Gray Attempt earned an early Triple Crown nomination from his trainer. The colt won the Sugar Bowl sprinting at Fair Grounds and held off Long Range Toddy to win the one-mile Smarty Jones, his first Derby prep, at Oaklawn Park. Distance is still in question, but he'll get the chance to prove himself in Oaklawn’s prep series. The Feb. 18 Southwest (G3) run at 1 1/16 miles is next.

Knicks Go (Paynter – Ben Colebrook – KRA Stud – 18): He defied 70-1 odds when winning the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland, the ran second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind champion Game Winner, beating Signalman to the wire. Knicks Go was 11th in the Kentucky Jockey Club when back quick over a sloppy track. From now on, Colebrook would prefer to keep him on dry surfaces. He’s had two bullet works at Tampa Bay Downs – a half-mile in 47 flat Jan. 19 and five-eighths in 58.40 Jan. 26. A win in Saturday’s Sam F. Davis (G3) could put him at the top of the Central runners, with his final prep goal before the Kentucky Derby the Blue Grass (G2) back at Keeneland on April 6.

Long Range Toddy (Take Charge Indy – Steve Asmussen – Willis Horton Racing LLC – 14): His odds were longer than his stablemate Bankit’s in both the Remington Springboard Mile and the Smarty Jones, but Long Range Toddy proved better both times. He held on by a head at Remington as Bankit rallied from behind, and he was second by a neck in the Smarty Jones, where Bankit ran a flat sixth as the favorite. He’ll likely continue on to the Southwest.

Signalman (General Quarters – Kenny McPeek – Tommie M. Lewis, David A. Bernsen, LLC, and Magdalena Racing (Sherri McPeek) – 18): Signalman sat at the top of the first two reports. He’s done nothing wrong since, but has not made his 3-year-old debut yet. The colt finished directly behind Knicks Go in the Breeders’ Futurity and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but broke through when rallying from mid-pack in the slop to win the Kentucky Jockey Club. He had his first breeze back at Payson Park Jan. 26 and worked a quick half-mile at Gulfstream Park Feb. 2 in 46.63. The work was faster than McPeek would have preferred, but he’s still on target for the Fountain of Youth (G2) March 2. Signalman could clash with stablemate and upset Holy Bull (G2) winner Harvey Wallbanger there. As with Knicks Go, the Blue Grass could be a final prep target for Signalman.

Second Tier

Bankit (Central Banker – Steve Asmussen – Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC and Willis Horton Racing LLC – 4): After missing Long Range Toddy by a head in the Springboard Mile, Bankit disappointed as the Smarty Jones favorite. Connections speculate he might not have liked the track with cold temperatures freezing the ground in the mornings leading up to the race. A next spot has not been decided yet, but he’s still in training at Oaklawn. 

Classy John (Songandaprayer – Dallas Stewart – Valene Farms LLC – 0): Classy John looks like a colt ready to take on open company again after winning both the Louisiana Champions Day Juvenile and the Louisiana Futurity. He was a six-length maiden winner at the Saratoga meet and finished second to Hog Creek Hustle in allowance optional claiming at Churchill Downs. He’s not run two turns yet, and his last work was Jan. 26 at Fair Grounds. Next is Saturday night's Premier Night Prince Stakes for Louisiana-breds at Delta Downs.

Hog Creek Hustle (Overanalyze – Vickey Foley – Something Special Racing, LLC – 4): This colt seems to be putting the pieces together. After finishing off 2018 with a third-place effort in the Sugar Bowl, he rallied to second in the Lecomte at 13-1. The added distance seemed to be on his side, as he passed Sugar Bowl runner-up Manny Wah in the stretch. Hog Creek Hustle should appear next in the Risen Star. 

Manny Wah (Will Take Charge – Wayne Catalano – Susan Moulton – 2): Although he finished off the board in the Iroquois (G3) and Street Sense last season, Manny Wah improved to finish in the money in both the Sugar Bowl and Lecomte. Those performances earn him a spot here, but he’ll have to prove he can go longer than the Lecomte’s one mile and 70 yards. It hasn't been determined whether he'll continue in the trail.

Mr. Money (Goldencents – Bret Calhoun – Allied Racing Stable LLC – 2): Originally the second choice on the Lecomte morning line, Mr. Money scratched after coughing during a routine gallop the day beforehand. He improved quickly at 2 to run fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile off a maiden win, but he’ll be in a tough spot to play catch up now. He’s returned to the Fair Grounds work tab since, and the Risen Star is a possible spot.

Plus Que Parfait (Point of Entry – Brendan Walsh – Imperial Racing LLC – 4): Originally the Lecomte morning line favorite, Plus Que Parfait went off as the second choice to War of Will and only managed a mild rally to fifth. He came from far back in the Kentucky Jockey Club and missed Signalman by a neck, which followed his Keeneland maiden win in which he held off Harvey Wallbanger. He's possible to return in the Risen Star, too.

Ones to Watch

Dream Maker is set to make his return Saturday in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claiming race at Fair Grounds. Dream Maker became the Breeders’ Futurity favorite when Mind Control scratched, but clipped heels at the break and lost his shoe and part of his hoof.

Boldor and Six Shooter, third and fourth, respectively, in the Smarty Jones, will continue on at Oaklawn in the Southwest.

The Risen Star is also a possible next spot for these four:

• Spendthrift Juvenile Stallion winner Dunph (2) rebounded from ninth in the Kentucky Jockey Club to finish third in the Springboard Mile.

• Owendale pulled a mild upset Jan. 17 in allowance optional claiming at Fair Grounds, beating regally-bred Gun It and Cornacchia.

• Wicked Indeed (1) ran fourth in the Lecomte in his first stakes attempt.

• Kentucky Jockey Club third-place finisher Limonite (2) could make his 3-year-old debut here. He was in light training and returned to consistent works at Fair Grounds in mid-January.

Dropping Down

Super Steed impressively broke his maiden against winners at Churchill Downs, but disappointed when fourth in the Sugar Bowl and seventh in the Smarty Jones. He'll go in the Southwest next. West Virginia-bred Tackett, who beat Owendale and Wicked Indeed in allowance optional claiming after breaking his maiden by open lengths, faded to ninth in the Lecomte.

On the Shelf

McPeek announced Cairo Cat (10), away since winning the Iroquois due to injury, is off the Derby trail, as he will not be ready for the first Saturday in May due to a setback. Winchell Thoroughbreds’ racing manager David Fiske also said Saratoga Special (G2) and Iroquois runner-up Tight Ten (4) is receiving time off after running 10th in the Lecomte.

Remaining Central Division Preps

• Risen Star Stakes (G2), Fair Grounds – Feb. 16
• Southwest Stakes (G3), Oaklawn Park – Feb. 18
• Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), Turfway Park – March 9
• Rebel Stakes (G2), Oaklawn Park – Feb. 18
• Louisiana Derby (G2), Fair Grounds – March 23
• Blue Grass Stakes (G2), Keeneland – April 6
• Lexington Stakes (G3), Keeneland – April 13
• Arkansas Derby (G1), Oaklawn Park – April 13