Kentucky Derby 2018 trail: Sham Stakes odds and analysis

By Christine Oser

Saturday’s Grade 3, $100,000 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park will feature seven horses vying for qualifying points toward the 2018 Kentucky Derby starting gate.

The 1-mile prep has in recent years produced eventual Grade 1 winners Gormley, Collected, Goldencents and Tapizar. This year’s edition is led by the Bob Baffert duo of McKinzie and Mourinho, with McKinzie looking to validate his last-out victory in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity, which he was awarded after stewards disqualified stablemate Solomini from the win.

Get a full-field look: 

1.) My Boy Jack, 12-1 (Creative Cause – Keith Desormeaux – 6-1-3-0 – $113,145) My Boy Jack has not raced on dirt since finishing sixth in his debut. He’s shown potential on the turf, finishing second in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes and breaking his maiden in the Zuma Beach Stakes, and up against tougher competition in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf he finished seventh. Not the right spot.  

2.) Here Is Happy, 20-1 (Tale of Ekati – Craig Lewis – 4-1-0-1 – $35,161) After winning his debut in maiden claiming company, he graduated to the stakes level but hasn't won since. Here Is Happy finished fifth in the Barretts Juvenile Stakes, third in the Speakeasy Stakes and sixth in the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes. As of right now, this looks like too much. Note that blinkers will be added. Doesn’t fit in this group.

3.) All Out Blitz, 10-1 (Concord Point – Simon Callaghan – 3-1-0-1 – $31,240) All Out Blitz has improved each start and broke his maiden the third attempt. While he has not been tested against tougher company yet, the colt did have Santa Anita’s bullet work Dec. 29 for four furlongs, drilling :47 flat. The Sham distance will also be a question for him. His longest race to date was his debut at 6 1/2 furlongs. Is he ready to stretch out?

4.) Mourinho, 4-1 (Super Saver – Bob Baffert – 3-1-2-0 – $64,360) While Peace received attention for breaking his maiden Dec. 30, Mourinho had already defeated the colt by 4 ½ lengths in their debuts. The $625,000 2-year-old went on to finish second in the Speakeasy Stakes behind Beautiful Shot and ahead of Here Is Happy. Mourinho earned another runner-up finish in the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes behind Greyvitos, who went on to win the Remington Springboard Mile. The Sham looks like good waters to test with most of the group looking to step up to the Derby trail. Mourinho’s biggest competition is likely to be his stablemate. Potential from the Baffert barn.

5.) Shivermetimbers, 7-2 (Shanghai Bobby – Jerry Hollendorfer – 3-1-0-2 – $43,200) Mourinho is not the only horse in this race to beat Peace. Shivermetimbers broke his maiden third time out and held off Peace by a head. He’s faced highly regarded maiden company in California, including a third-place run behind McKinzie. As with All Out Blitz, he’ll have to prove he can face stakes company, but also has the advantage of winning at a mile. Gives Baffert duo a run for their money. 

6.) McKinzie, 3-5 (Street Sense – Bob Baffert – 2-2-0-0 – $210,000) Although he’s a Grade 1 winner in just two starts, the title comes with controversy from the Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity. McKinzie’s stablemate Solomini crossed the wire first, but the stewards disqualified Solomini to third for a slight bump in the final stretch. McKinzie, who was second by three-quarters of a length after dueling with Instilled Regard, was awarded the win. Prior to the Futurity, McKinzie won his debut race by 5 1/2 lengths. The highly regarded Baffert colt will have the advantage of jockey Mike Smith on race day. Top choice.

7.) City Plan, 20-1 (Street Sense – Eoin Harty – 4-2-0-0 – $72,690) This Godolphin homebred broke his maiden at Los Alamitos before stepping up to the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes, where he faced Bolt d’Oro and Solomini. While that pair went on to finish 1-2, City Plan was never a factor, racing toward the back to finish seventh. A step down in company seemed to do the trick. City Plan came back to win the Gold Rush Stakes at Golden Gate Fields. The FrontRunner could have been a dud, but the competition in the Sham will be tougher than that in the Gold Rush. Finishes just off the board.