Kentucky Derby 2018 trail: Santa Anita Derby odds, analysis

And so we have multiple Grade 1 winner Bolt d’Oro taking on Justify, the up-and-comer who’s both unbeaten and untested. Bolt d’Oro already has the points to run in the Derby, while Justify needs to finish first or second in a race that awards them on a 100-40-20-10 scale to the Top 4 finishers.

The big horses ran some others off, leaving a field of seven to go 1 1/8 miles at Santa Anita Park. With post time set for 7:12 p.m. ET, here’s a look at the field with morning line odds:

1. Instilled Regard, 5-1 (Arch — Jerry Hollendorfer/Joel Rosario — 6: 2-2-1 — $244,000): Two starts back, he won the Grade 3 Lecomte, and the last-out fourth in the Grade 2 Risen Star deserves another look. Noble Indy, who went on to win the Louisiana Derby, hit the wire just a neck ahead of Instilled Regard, with neither closing particularly well into a soft pace. This is a tough spot to return, but he’s certainly eligible to contend with Bolt d’Oro and Justify at what should be a decent price. Third place gets him in the Kentucky Derby. Don’t completely dismiss him.

2. Orbit Rain, 50-1 (Orb — Mick Ruis/Brice Blanc — 3: 0-1-0 — $12,185): Still a maiden, this second entry from the Ruis barn will also be making his 3-year-old debut. His speed figures ascended with every start as a juvenile, but he topped out at an 83 from Brisnet in his last start on Dec. 26 — that one on the turf. It’s worth noting the winner there, River Boyne, has gone on to take his next two starts. But that doesn’t mean Orbit Rain belongs with these. Perhaps Ruis wanted to help fill out the field. Toss.

3. Bolt d’Oro, 6-5 (Medaglia d’Oro — Mick Ruis/Javier Castellano — 4: 4-0-1 — $816,000): Off the layoff, he validated his 2-year-old form in the March 10 San Felipe Stakes, running within a head of McKinzie and earning a 98 Brisnet Speed Rating for the effort. This is a race in which Ruis has said the colt will be higher cranked. Though he wasn’t a part of the pace duel, Bolt d’Oro did hang with the lead pack early last out, as advertised, and should sit a similar trip Saturday. The one to beat.

4. Jimmy Chila, 30-1 (Jimmy Creed — Doug O’Neill/Mario Gutierrez — 4: 0-0-3 — $22,440): A maiden who has run on turf and dirt, plus a sloppy surface, hasn’t shown much in any of those spots while meeting some stakes-quality horses along the way. That said, he has the same connections as the 2012 (I’ll Have Another) and 2016 (Nyquist) Kentucky Derby winners, who obviously know how to pick a spot. His sire also produced Kanthaka, this year’s Grade 2 San Vicente winner around one turn. Doesn’t look like a fit at this level.

5. Pepe Tono, 20-1 (Bodemeister — Victor Garcia/Victor Espinoza — 4: 1-0-1 — $39,810): Another who’s just looking for a piece of the purse, he was third by 7 3/4 lengths in Justify’s allowance victory, and was able to gobble up some ground late. His lone win came against weaker horses that couldn’t hold on after an opening half mile in 46 1/4. Well, Justify galloped after tracking a pace even faster on the mud. He’s running for fourth.

6. Justify, 4-5 (Scat Daddy — Bob Baffert/Mike Smith — 2: 2-0-0 — $66,000): You know the deal here. Late getting to the races, he’s 2-for-2 with both efforts measuring triple-digit speed figures, and the final margins combining for 16 lengths. Justify has won both setting the pace and pressing it, beating rivals in here last out. He’ll get every chance to live up to the hype facing the West Coast’s top established Derby hopeful in Bolt d’Oro. Should finish first or second.

7. Core Beliefs, 20-1 (Quality Road — Peter Eurton/Tyler Baze — 3: 1-0-2 — $45,360): While not nominated to the Triple Crown series, this $350,000 purchase from a typically conservative barn showed enough in his March 8 maiden win to earn a shot here. In a field of five, Core Beliefs set the fractions going 1 1/16 miles of 23.94, 48.21 and 1:12.25, distancing late. The much-improved effort over his first two starts came on the stretch out from a pair of sprints. If there’s one who could take on Justify early, perhaps he’s it. Adds intriguing speed to the field. 

Summary: It’s not a great betting race, or even a good one. But this time of year, that’s not always why we’re watching. If you’re confident in Instilled Regard crashing the exacta, this might be a race to play after all.