Kentucky Derby 2018 trail: San Felipe Stakes odds, analysis

Two of the early Derby favorites, Bolt d'Oro and McKinzie, are joined by a pair of last-out stakes winners and a slew of maiden winners looking to step up going 1 1/16 miles at Santa Anita Park, where qualifying points will be earned on a 50-20-10-5 basis to the Top 4 finishers.

• Related odds and analysis: Tampa Bay Derby | Gotham Stakes

Keep an eye on the forecast, which could include rain. Bolt d'Oro's owner and trainer, Mick Ruis, told BloodHorse the March 17 Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park would be the backup plan if the track turns sloppy.

Here’s a look at the field with early odds by Horse Racing Nation: 

1. Bolt d’Oro, 8-5 (Medaglia d’Oro — Mick Ruis/Javier Castellano — 4: 3-0-1 — $576,000) — It’s been more than five months since he won a race, but that victory in Santa Anita’s Grade 1 FrontRunner still carries the best two-turn Beyer Speed Figure of 102 for this crop. That said, Ruis said it’s not this race, but the Santa Anita Derby, for which he’ll have Bolt d’Oro “really” cranked. A change in tactics is apparent for this one, with the colt expected to establish a better early position — that is, if he can break better than in his recent gate work under new jockey Javier Castellano. Some question marks for the favorite.

2. Lombo, 10-1 (Graydar — Mike Pender/Rafael Bejarano — 4: 2-0-1 — $129,225) — The Robert B. Lewis winner will appreciate going 1 1/16 miles again — and not longer — after slowing late in that Feb. 3 victory. He should be on or near the lead early, as he tends to break well. He doesn’t necessarily need it, however, positioned third a half mile through his maiden victory at third asking in January. Graydar is an emerging sire, with this one of his top runners so far. Will do his best running early; speed figures aren’t in line with the favorites.

3. Ayacara, 20-1 (Violence — Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux — 6: 1-2-0 — $102,945) — First, note the trainer: You never know when one conditioned by Desormeaux will suddenly step up, especially if it rains Saturday, and that's possible. He was two lengths behind Lombo at the wire of the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis last time out, running late from near last. But it tells of the potential class difference between the top choices and longshots here that he hit the wire 13 3/4 lengths behind Bolt d’Oro in the favorite’s massive FrontRunner effort. Doesn’t appear the best of the closers.

4. McKinzie, 2-1 (Street Sense — Bob Baffert/Mike Smith — 3: 3-0-0 — $270,000) — With blinkers off Jan. 3 in his third career start, this one showed marked improvement, conserving energy early and looking full of run late. He has been a model of consistency on the work tab since then and appears a worthy rival of Bolt d’Oro here. To add, he likes to sit off the pace, and there should be enough of that here for a strong middle move. The only knock on him? When has a great horse ever swished his tail the way McKinzie did in the Sham? That quirk aside…He could be the one to beat with Bolt d’Oro exiting a layoff.

5. Aquila, 15-1 (Union Rags — Simon Callaghan/Martin Pedroza — 3: 1-1-0 — $43,545) — A $685,000 purchase, he wired a Feb. 16 maiden special weight race at 1 1/16 miles, appreciating added distance from a runner-up effort going a mile one start beforehand. Callaghan knows how to get them to the Derby, having designed Firing Line’s path there in 2015, and looks to have an up-and-comer here for owner Kaleem Shah. Expect him to challenge Lombo early. Looks like a future stakes winner, but this is a tough ask.

6. Calexman, 30-1 (Midshipman — Vladimir Cerin/Alonso Quinonez — 4: 1-0-0 — $32,753) — He set the early fractions in last month’s El Camino Real Derby before dropping out, but two starts back, he broke his maiden going a mile. Still, that was on turf. Connections thought highly enough of this one to spend $240,000 on him as a 2-year-old. Here is, perhaps, a last shot at Derby dreaming. The longest shot in the field.

7. Peace, 12-1 (Violence — Richard Mandella/Drayden Van Dyke — 4: 1-2-0 — $55,800) — Many, including this writer, hyped up Peace before the Robert B. Lewis. He had some of the West Coast’s top runners in his past performances, and he entered off a maiden win going two turns. He put in a flat effort, running mid-pack throughout and fifth across the wire. Mandella’s horses, however, tend to get better with age. Has to improve to hit the board.

8. Kanthaka, 6-1 (Jimmy Creed — Jerry Hollendorfer/Flavien Prat — 3: 2-0-0 — $153,440) — Opening fractions in his last two starts, both wins, have been nearly identical: 22 seconds for the opening quarter and 44-plus seconds for the half mile. Here, he may have to run at a slightly slower pace going two turns. Plus, will classier horses back up as much late? Consider it a vote of confidence by connections that they kept him on the West Coast for this spot after originally considering the one-turn, Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct. He’ll close, but not likely fast enough.

Summary: This race compares to last weekend’s Fountain of Youth, in that you have to wonder when it comes to the favorite whether they’re in to win this one or waiting for something bigger. Bolt d’Oro could get by on talent alone, but he’s by no means a single here with McKinzie still any kind at this point. While not the largest field on the Derby trail, this one is so far the deepest, with it difficult to keep all but Calexman out of the vertical wagers.