Kentucky Derby 2018 trail: Sam F. Davis Stakes odds and analysis

Tampa Bay Downs will serve as a proving ground Saturday when it hosts the Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes, a race headlined by Catholic Boy -- but also the 3-year-old launch point for other promising 2018 Kentucky Derby hopefuls.

Set for 4:52 p.m. ET, the race will pay out Derby qualifying points to the top finishers on a 10-4-2-1 scale as Hollywood Star looks to make the grade, Flameaway gets another opportunity on the trail, and Vino Rosso can prove he's the real deal.

Here's a look at the field of seven with early odds by Horse Racing Nation:

1. Navy Armed Guard, 20-1 (Midshipman — Joan Scott — Jesus Castanon — 5: 0-2-2 — $31,325) Still a maiden, he has other would-be Derby prospects in his past performances, including Storm Runner and Mississippi, the 1-2 finishers of a top Sunday allowance at Gulfstream Park. His last-out effort was a neck defeat going a mile and 40 yards at Tampa Bay Downs. That he’s a closer in this field, however, does not bode well. Seemingly more talented runners in this spot will be using the same strategy. Longshot is up against it here.

2. Flameaway, 10-1 (Scat Daddy — Mark Casse — Jose Lezcano — 6: 4-0-0 — $314,834) He’s a multiple stakes winner who has done it both on turf and then dirt in Keeneland’s Grade 3 Bourbon last fall, when a carded grass race moved to a sloppy track. This marks a second chance for the colt when it comes to the trail, as he also ran sixth in Churchill Downs’ Grade 3 Iroquois back in September. Casse said Flameaway didn’t handle the kickback that day, so look for forward placement Saturday. A bit of an unknown could set the pace.

3. Vino Rosso, 5-1 (Curlin — Todd Pletcher — John Velazquez — 2: 2-0-0 — $48,000) This lightly raced allowance winner carries in a resume similar to Audible, who ran away with last weekend’s Grade 2 Holy Bull. He’s a pace presser given a bit of an education last time out, with Velazquez keeping Vino Rosso in the pack until he glided late to a 2 1/2-length allowance score over this track. He has the connections, the breeding and, so far, the record of a top Derby hopeful. We’ll find out if he’s legit.

4. Septimius Severus, 12-1 (Roman Ruler — George Weaver — Jose Ortiz — 2: 1-1-0 — $45,240) He ran into a potential star, Impact Player, at second asking in the step up to allowance company but was game to finish second following a poor break. And in his first start, the colt got up to win by a nose after running wide throughout. With this his first try around two turns, he could sure use a better trip. There’s nothing to suggest he won’t like a bit more distance, proving to be a bargain as a $37,000 purchase. Could get a piece of it. 

5. Hollywood Star, 3-1 (Malibu Moon — Dale Romans — Joel Rosario — 4: 1-2-0 — $116,520) Romans opted for this spot over the Holy Bull, with this potentially the best of his 3-year-old bunch. Second in consecutive stakes leading into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he ran up against an inside bias and managed to finish sixth. Works have been consistent to this point, with his pre-Holy Bull breeze a bullet at Gulfstream Park. He'll be running late. But is there enough pace for him to contend?

6. Catholic Boy, 9-5 (More Than Ready — Jonathan Thomas — Manny Franco — 4: 3-0-0 — $314,000) After winning a graded stakes on grass, then running fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, he made the transition to the main track in style. The colt’s Grade 2 Remsen win came by 4 3/4 lengths over next-out Withers winner Avery Island. Since then, the training schedule has gone according to plan, with Catholic Boy’s two most-recent works over the Tampa Bay track. He’ll look to come from just off the pace. The favorite looks tough on paper.

7. Vouch, 6-1 (Yes It’s True — Arnaud Delacour — Daniel Centeno — 2: 1-0-1 — $47,800) The open-lengths maiden winer last October at Laurel Park jumped into the deep end by going next in the Remsen, and he proved a good fit, finishing third in his stakes debut. But that was third beaten 6 1/2 lengths by Catholic Boy. Vouch drove to take a narrow lead at the top of the stretch before out-finished by the winner and caught by Avery Island for second. He's plenty eligible to improve.

Summary: Catholic Boy ran a bang-up race in the Remsen, but he may need to do even better than a repeat effort to take the Sam F. Davis, too. Both Hollywood Star and Vino Rosso may be sitting on big efforts while Vouch, a $230,000 purchase himself, could still be any kind if he can finish better. This is the sort of race where the Exacta pay well with the second betting choice a matter of opinion. Perhaps that improves Catholic Boy's case, but he doesn't feel like a single in the multi-race wagers.