Kentucky Derby 2018 trail: Risen Star Stakes odds and analysis

The Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes marks the first 2018 Kentucky Derby prep race worth 50 points to the winner, making it essentially a win-and-you're in prize for the winner toward the Churchill Downs starting gate. Points awarded on a 20-10-5 scale to the next three runners in the Saturday, Feb. 17, race at Fair Grounds.

A field of 10 will go 1 1/16 miles with Instilled Regard, winner of last month's Grade 3 Lecomte, also at Fair Grounds, leading the way. Here's a look at the field with early odds by Horse Racing Nation:

1.) High North, 8-1 (Midnight Lute – Brad Cox/Corey Lanerie – 4:1-1-0 – $67,350) The Risen Star should give High North a chance to show how he fares on the Derby trail. After rallying to a maiden score by a nose, he ran fourth in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes after dealing with traffic problems and a loose horse. He has trained consistently for this spot. Has the chance to step up. 

2.) Noble Indy, 4-1 (Take Charge Indy – Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez – 2:2-0-0 – $51,600) The second post should be to Noble Indy’s advantage. He set the pace in his 8 3/4-length maiden score and came from just off it in a Jan. 11 Gulfstream Park allowance, out-dueling another Triple Crown prospect, Mississippi. That victory came at this distance. Exciting newcomer to the trail.

3.) Givemeaminit, 15-1 (Star Guitar – Dallas Stewart/Shaun Bridgmohan – 7:1-2-1 – $213,466) While Givemeaminit hasn't broken through yet in stakes company, he enters the Risen Star off his first win. An eight-length victory came Jan. 28 facing Louisiana-bred maidens. He has competed in some of the biggest races for this crop. Asking a lot.

4.) Snapper Sinclair, 12-1 (City Zip – Steve Asmussen/Adam Beschizza – 5:2-0-1 – $272,360) Previously winner of the seven-furlong Fasig-Tipton Turf Showcase Juvenile Stakes, Snapper Sinclair seemed to take to dirt in the Lecomte, finishing third a neck behind a previously unbeaten stablemate. He briefly held the lead in the Lecomte turning for home, but Principe Guilherme might be the better Derby prospect as they stretch out. Does he want the distance?

5.) Instilled Regard, 8-5 (Arch – Jerry Hollendorfer/Javier Castellano – 5:2-2-1 – $228,000) He was awarded second in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity and backed up the effort by winning the Lecomte. Instilled Regard earned a nice 3 ¾-length victory when leaving his West Coast rivals and will be a tough competitor coming back in for the Risen Star. A deserving favorite.

6.) Supreme Aura, 20-1 (Candy Ride – Michael Stidham/Joe Bravo – 2:2-0-0 – $46,200) Although perfect in two starts, Supreme Aura will have to show he can stretch out beyond six furlongs. He picked up a 3 1/2-length allowance win over the Fair Grounds track, but will be up against more experienced horses who performed well here in stakes company. Facing a major test.

7.) Bravazo, 10-1 (Awesome Again – D. Wayne Lukas/Gary Stevens – 6:2-1-1 – $186,528) Following a 10th place-run in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, Bravazo made a nice 3-year-old debut at Oaklawn Park, rallying to a neck win in allowance company. He picked up four Derby points in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1) finishing behind Free Drop Billy, but the Risen Star is setting up to be a tougher race. Will have to continue improving.

8.) Kentucky Club, 25-1 (Oxbow – D. Wayne Lukas/James Graham – 6:1-0-0 – $22,040) He won his first race at a mile by eight lengths at Oaklawn Park last out, but the victory was in maiden claiming company after failing to hit the board in five previous maiden special weight starts. Hard task at hand.

9.) Principe Guilherme, 5-1 (Tapit – Steve Asmussen/Florent Geroux – 3:2-1-0 – $101,800) The Lecomte marked the first race Principe Guilherme did not have his way on the lead, and it came in his first stakes race. Considering that, his runner-up finish was impressive for only a third start. Instilled Regard will be tough, but look for Principe Guilherme to position better early after stuck outside in the Lecomte. Could be getting better with age.

10.) Ebben, 30-1 (Trappe Shot – Steve Margolis/Gabriel Saez – 7:2-0-1 – $71,141) He scored a nice allowance win at Churchill Downs back in November, but has never been able to hang with stakes company. After sixth in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) against some of the same horses, it’s tough to imagine better in the Risen Star. Appears overmatched.